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#249917 - 01/05/2003 13:12 East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
The charts are telling me,that a big SE swell is possible for Sunday and Monday.Its difficult to say how big it will get,but 4-5metres+ is not out of the question.The period should be atleast 12-13seconds.The swell should start to rise sometime on Saturday.One draw-back is the wind.It looks like we'll have S-SE winds on Sunday,leaving southern corners as the only option.Southern corners should be big anyway because of the size and period of the swell.

I know its a fair way off yet,but this swell could be the biggest weve seen this year.It may get seriously big.
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#249918 - 02/05/2003 19:40 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
G'day Pingtang,
Swells definitely looking up this weekend. I don't think we'll see any increase in Sydney until Sunday, although the south coast may see something late on Saturday.
One thing that may limit the size we get out of this southerly fetch is duration. Despite the strong S/SW winds and long fetch, this system is moving pretty rapidly through the Tasman, so after an initial pulse of swell and large wind waves, I think it will drop out pretty rapidly on the Monday. I also think with the rapid movement of the low/front, swell period is not likely to be much greater than the 12 or 13 secs you suggested. So, my tip is to go early Sun when winds still have a small westerly component and find somewhere out of the wind. My prediction on wave size is probably around 6-8ft, perhaps 10 at places that pick up a lot of S swell. I guess you'll hit Bawley right? I think I'll try winki or dead mans at Manly with the crowds and pollution! Might get motivated and do some travelling, although car problems may intervine........
Good luck

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#249919 - 03/05/2003 16:26 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Gday Alex.

I went hunting for waves this morning,but came back a little dissapointed.I went out at Dolphin point way before sunrise.It was breaking nicely,but was only a metre.

Tomorrow should be much bigger.I think the swell should rise rapidly once that change moves through.There was alot of swell running past out to sea today(2-3metres+),so this change should bring that swell in plus more.The Manly Hydrolics Laboratory at 3:00pm shows a good spike in swell at Eden.The Eden Buoy has mostly been running at 1.5metres today,but is now up to 3.1metres.The winds tomorrow should be OK,swinging from the SSW early Sunday to the SSE later on.Hopefully the mixture of cold temps,gusty winds,and showers will keep the crowds down.

Yes,im definatly heading to Bawley Point tomorrow.Its the best big wave spot I know of,and it works well in S winds.I am expecting 4 metre waves at the point.Certainly not the 6metres I had 2 weeks ago,but I'll take it.Cant wait,to get some elevator drops and good pits.Should be a good day.

Monday looks OK,but as you said smaller than Sunday.I may head to Redsands at Shellharbour early on Monday.Tuesday should see a further decrease in swell,but lighter winds.

I hope you find a good wave.Best of luck.

:cheers:
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34mms

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#249920 - 04/05/2003 17:23 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Well,I headed down to Bawley Point today.I arrived there to find 1metre waves,with sets in the 2-3metre range coming through every 15minutes.I was actually quite dissapointed,as I was expecting some decent size.A stiff SSW wind to 30kts was blowing,and it wasnt pleasent putting a wet wetsuit on.

After 2 hours of surfing,it started picking up dramatically.It ended up being consistant 2Xoverhead with the odd 3X overhead set at the point.Guillotines was getting the odd set to 2X head.Anyway,I had a good surf so im happy.

On the way back home,I checked out the Golf Course reef at Ulladulla.It was quite clean,and sets would have been 2.5X overhead.A pack of 20guys were out.Some bommies were breaking 1km out the back.

This swell is quite large now,but it should start decreasing tomorrow.Tuesday may see some good waves too,but it should be quite small by Wednesday/Thursday as the high dominates.

Size-wise,it looked quite decent up in Sydney looking at Realsurf.I hope you got some good waves!!

:cheers:
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RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#249921 - 05/05/2003 23:19 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
bigwilly Offline
Weatherzone Mod and Photog

Registered: 25/09/2002
Posts: 6543
Loc: Junee - just north of the 'Bid...
I don't normally look in Marine Weather (seeing as I'm over 100km from the nearest beach) but tonight on channel 7 news, the guy was talking about the swell bouy peaking at 10m confused Is this an official bouy, or is it a channel 7 invention, and if so, was that an error or was there a 10m swell running?

:cheers: BW

Katoomba Weather Photography
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YTD Rainfall = 281.0mm (Avg to March 117.0mm)
MTD rainfall March = 34.7mm(Avg 41.3mm)
February 2011 total = 203.9mm (Avg 37.8mm)
2010 Rainfall: 759.3mm (Annual Avg: 521.5mm)

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#249922 - 06/05/2003 06:12 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
TrenthamStormchasers Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 15/04/2001
Posts: 6258
Loc: Trentham 705m

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#249923 - 06/05/2003 07:12 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
Matt Pearce Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/01/2001
Posts: 4437
Loc: Kariong, NSW
Hi Jane

Those buoys are located within the harbour, hence the usefulness for Sydney Ferries, but they were not really representative of the large swell running offshore on Sunday. A better source for offshore swells is:

http://marlin.mhl.nsw.gov.au/www/wave_data_plot.htmlx

Just choose which buoy you want and request the wave data. For example, Sydney still shows the Sunday swell event very nicely. The max wave height did peak at 10 metres briefly during Sunday afternoon(coincidentally just as my parents were sailing out of the Heads on a cruise ship and they confirmed that the swell was indeed massive) but significant wave heights were "only" around 5-6 metres at this time, which is probably a more representative figure for the average swell. But 10 metres sounds more sensational on TV!

It has dropped back rapidly now to be running at about 2-3m with max heights less than 4m and should continue to drop quickly over the next few days.

Matt cool

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#249924 - 06/05/2003 10:06 Re: East coast NSW-big swell possible for May 4 and 5.
TrenthamStormchasers Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 15/04/2001
Posts: 6258
Loc: Trentham 705m
I'd never knock a 3m swell inside the heads - makes the trip to Manly by ferry a real adventure.. smile

(choc chip cookies)

Jane

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