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#35075 - 25/09/2007 21:17 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Blizzard Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 31/03/2001
Posts: 10343
Loc: Blue Mountains
Nah, you're right mate. I think its bloody important that folk like you get on here and let us know how its all going. I know of more than a couple of farmers that have suicided up this way, its very serious stuff. City and residential folk need to know what is happening on the land from the horses mouth as it were. As you say, a bit in the tanks might be all but better than nothing. smile
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#35076 - 25/09/2007 21:46 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
i think that the problem with most ppl is they dont realize just how serious this drought is and are constantly bragging about how 'beautiful' the sunshine is like the rain doesnt even matter. we need rain EVERYWHERE including sydney, we havent even reached our average and we are in as much of a drought as any1 else. and we dont need heatwaves either, they make droughts worse.. we need rain.

also, those seasonal outlooks are a joke, they really need to stop issuing crayons to little children :rolleyes:

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#35077 - 25/09/2007 21:53 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Yabbra Offline
Member

Registered: 30/03/2002
Posts: 3398
Loc: Wardell, Northern Rivers N.S....
Quote:
we havent even reached our average and we are in as much of a drought as any1 else.
Bokkey,
I think it's time for a walk on the wildside...ooopps I mean dryside.
'Shakes my head'

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#35078 - 25/09/2007 21:56 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
rainfan Offline
Member

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1129
Loc: Bondi, Sydney
Due to further conversations with a moderator -I'll be taking a laissez-faire check on the above posts & start talking back on topic about "lack" of rainfall for all areas which includes Sydney without reprisals.

The reality is that "rainfall" patterns have altered & entered a new regime and as much as we dont like it - we will have to accept that it could be permanent - possibly lasting well into the future, it has been mentioned before that southern Oz has recorded decreasing rainfalls over recent years, so instead of declearing ourselves to be in a "drought" - this could be what we are facing permanently.

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#35079 - 25/09/2007 21:56 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Your dead on there Bokk. Even out here I heard a radio announcer saying that it was glorious weather and people should be out celebrating when infact that day did major damage to nearly every cereal crop in SE Aus. She was saying this on an FM station in the middle of the mallee!! :rolleyes: mad

I can just see what will happen though. Lanina will develop and there will be widespread rains leading to floods and we will hear the flipside! I really hope that we all can get full dams and some floods in the rivers so we can relax a little and actually think about the changes that are needed in the water supply for everyone in the country. I think that water reform whean there is bugger all of it is dangerous as the people who make the decitions(pollies and the people who vote them in) on the whole do not have a good understanding of the system and can be easily led to make some silly decitions that effect the whole show for years after. Getting off topic here but really just want to see some rivers in flood and the closest creek to us flow for the first time since '96

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#35080 - 25/09/2007 22:02 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
yeah adon, you'll read it on this forum too believe it or not.. its like theres no such thing as a drought. but we'll be paying for our glorious weather with sky rocketing food and water prices so every1 will feel it and it wont be so glorious after that. the only thing im worried about is there not being a flipside.. but with a la nina resurfacing for the first time in 6 years, theres gotta be at least some hope for us there.

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#35081 - 25/09/2007 22:08 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
It'll rain... don't worry 'bout that! It'll bust it's guts and flood the hell out of some poor bugger and we will be wanting it to stop! I am not convinced that weather patterns have permanently changed but even if they have we will still get a very wet year right across the country. It may not be as often as in the past but we will get it that's for sure. I am looking more to the indian ocean these days as the pacific is looking good and has for a while so the indian has to improve for the rain to come. It'll be too late for us but we have plans to try and use the moisture when it comes.

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#35082 - 25/09/2007 22:09 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
rainfan Offline
Member

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1129
Loc: Bondi, Sydney
"La Nina" pattern is good for the E seaboard but will it actually happen? I dont think "La Nina" will have the same punch as it did back then in the 1980's & 90s, the extremely wet June we had this year - was that related to "La Nina"? August as well?

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#35083 - 25/09/2007 22:15 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
I dont think June was related because the wet pattern shouldve persisted through july and august, and the warm pool which moved into the tasman that added moisture to the systems was only temporary. Yes there are la-nina conditions out there but we need a lot of rain here first until we can call it one. otherwise if we dont get it, theres clearly no point in having a la-nina.

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#35084 - 25/09/2007 22:17 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
rainfan Offline
Member

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1129
Loc: Bondi, Sydney
Look at SA, Vic & SE QLD - well below average rainfalls over the last ten years (WA & NSW to an lesser extent) - if it was a normal drought then it should have broken a couple of years ago, but it's been on-going so that's why I'm inclined to think that this could be the new "permanent" rain regime, sure we could have an "wet" year but who's to say that it could be long-lasting? A wet year - say 1 out of 10 years is not good at all which seems to have been the case in recent years.

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#35085 - 25/09/2007 22:21 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Yabbra Offline
Member

Registered: 30/03/2002
Posts: 3398
Loc: Wardell, Northern Rivers N.S....
Rainfan...
The wet June (Newcastle Floods) was due to a good MJO interacting with rising and good positives SOI figures at the time.

And as WINDEE always say's "What if this is the new normal?"

From reading the ENSO thread all this time I was always under the impression that not only did you get the good widespread rain during la Nina but also the lead up of this event.

I'm still wondering what on earth is going on "Now"

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#35086 - 25/09/2007 22:22 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
rain gauge Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/02/2006
Posts: 4470
Loc: Gorokan NSW 4klm West of the ...
My limited understanding is la nina encourages rain, but does not guarantee it?
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Dec-rain 30.7mm

2016 Rainfall-1241.9mm
2015 Rainfall-1568.2mm
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#35087 - 25/09/2007 22:34 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
rainfan Offline
Member

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1129
Loc: Bondi, Sydney
Unfortunately like ER says it was only temporary & didn't last long - really lasted one month (June that is).

That's what I mean - flucuating SOI & MJO patterns - April well above - May below average with only 9mm so June as much as I loved the rain was a big shock as I certainly didn't expect rain of that magnitude to fall.

It's pretty hard to predict whenether we're gonna get good rains this summer - it could go either way depending on the positions of those "highs" & "Lows" & whilst La Nina usually brings good rains to us - it's not always the case unfortunately.

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#35088 - 25/09/2007 23:17 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Again according to the CSIRO's data, a large percentage of the positive IOD years cycled through into a La Nina phase in the Pacific .
Quite interesting the way that the La Nina effect actually followed the positive phase of the IOD or at worse, a neutral ENSO.
There seems to be no instance where the +ve IOD cycled through into an El Nino.
We have just had two back to back +ve IOD's. The last time this is noted was in 1982 and 1983.
There was a 3 year back to back +ve IOD in 1944 /45 /46, years that this then very small boy, remembers as being very hot for weeks at a time and very dry with massive dust storms.
Only one El nino / negative IOD in 1930 is listed.
In my view, after looking at the CSIRO data which goes back to 1877, it is becoming increasingly obvious that our higher rainfall years in the SE are tied to a negative IOD.
Now if you want to toss in another factor which some scientists believe has an even stronger effect on southern Australia than the IOD and ENSO then try reading the following on the very recently discovered Antarctic Circumpolar Wave in the Southern Ocean with its enormous pools of ever changing cold and colder water. ; http://www.publish.csiro.au/?act=view_file&file_id=EC97p22.pdf

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#35089 - 25/09/2007 23:38 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
found some interesting stuff on ACW, thanx for that ROM. apparently the structure suggests a 4-5 year rainfall cycle and circles the globe in roughly a decade:

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap11/ant_wave.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Circumpolar_Wave

scientists will keep discovering these new cycles as technology advances no doubt.

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#35090 - 28/09/2007 09:56 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Just looked at the 14 day precip forceast(GFS) it has an awful lot of green from cape york right down to Tas. eek Not having silver I don't know what system/s are supposed to cause this rain so can anybody expand in this? Better hurry up 'cos it'll be gone by next run! laugh

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#35091 - 28/09/2007 10:06 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Rain Shadow (Fossy) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/10/2006
Posts: 2756
Loc: Tamworth
Bokkey, it's all your fault. When your name was 'Die El-Nino' we got rain - change it back.
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Silence is Golden,
but duct tape is silver

YTD. 828.0mm

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#35092 - 28/09/2007 10:09 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Yep that's about when the tap turned off alright! Wonder if he should have a new name..."die positve IOD"!

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#35093 - 28/09/2007 10:22 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
NoRelationToNed Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2007
Posts: 698
Loc: Kerang, NW Victoria
This is the trough GFS is progging Adon,


Would that it were so!!!

...and actually better in the latest 18Z run.

Ron

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#35094 - 28/09/2007 10:27 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
Will be interesting to compare these 2 to the actual maps on those days. Reckon they are going to be nothing alike(hope not).

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