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#361925 - 28/11/2008 01:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
Quote:
Originally posted by Ted Dog:
Quote:
Originally posted by Taylsy:
[b] OCF for the Gold Coast is saying 35 mm. I think 100 mm generally is over-optimistic - more like 25-50 mm generally with pockets of higher falls in places due to embedded storms.
Couldnt have said it better mate smile [/b]
I shall stick to my guns an stick with what i said re rainfall totals i dont think i will be 2 far off the mark smile

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#361926 - 28/11/2008 08:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
V0R73X Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/04/2006
Posts: 1902
Loc: Logan City, QLD
Today looks good, with the forecast of 'Thunderstorms' for here south of Brisbane. Sheer looks heaps better today.

Will be taking the Camera to work today for sure. smile
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#361927 - 28/11/2008 08:31 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Andy Double U Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Mundoolun, SE QLD, 129m ASL
I was out just west of Boonah yesterday and once the low level scud cleared away after lunch I was amazed at how quickly the temps climbed. With so much moisture around out there the humidity went from bearable to uncomfortable so quickly. There was a bit of Cu shooting up around the traps with some darkish bases but they were lacking any real ooomph thanks to the lack of heating during the day I'd imagine. Had North Easters out there again from about 10:00am onwards so I am pretty optimistic about some action for us today.

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#361928 - 28/11/2008 09:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
A lovely 28/21 here at the moment with a 5-10kph NE breeze...

Hanging out for thismorning's sounding, I have a feeling about today...

EDIT - up to 29/22 while I typed...

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#361929 - 28/11/2008 11:26 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
building up nicely on the warrgo radar atm

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#361930 - 28/11/2008 11:43 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
V0R73X Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/04/2006
Posts: 1902
Loc: Logan City, QLD
Seems all the required elements are there, just a case of wait and see. Plenty of moisture on the surface and quite humid.

I am hoping for something later rather than sooner thou. smile

Great to see the temp already at 29/22 as Davey has pointed out. 29 @ near on 11pm is great! Might make 30-31 by 2pm (hottest part of the day) and AC has stated it may take a temp of 30 to break the Cap.
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#361931 - 28/11/2008 12:06 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Dave-Wx Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/08/2001
Posts: 4950
Loc: Heritage Park, Brisbane, QLD
I think we're gonna need temps in the low-mid 30's to break the cap, and the nice low level moisture on the sounding has to hang around as well - could be some good storms if it all comes off!

I hope the BoM looked at the sounding and upgrade their temp forecast in the next forecast update! (which is about now)

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#361932 - 28/11/2008 12:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
V0R73X Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/04/2006
Posts: 1902
Loc: Logan City, QLD
Brisbane Forecast
Issued at 11:10 am EST on Friday 28 November 2008

Warning Summary
Nil.

Forecast for Friday
Cloudy periods with a shower or two about. Moderate N to NE winds, fresh and
gusty at times about the Bay.
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#361933 - 28/11/2008 12:15 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Tulloch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 699
Loc: Brisbane, Carseldine
What are the BOM doing, they've dropped all mention of thundery rain and thunderstorms?

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#361934 - 28/11/2008 12:25 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
OIC_Napster Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/08/2007
Posts: 1702
Loc: Mooloolaba - Sunny Coast
Maroochydore's 00Z Sounding Summary

Temp 28.6 Rising
DP: 22.3 Rising
Hum: 68%
Baro: 1010.8hpa

LI's -3.64
Cape: 1653

Sounding Summary:
. Severe storms are a possibility and might be quite severe given the shear present, supporting hail 2cm+ in size
The 500mb level is showing moderate instability, enough for storms to kick up if conditions are right and possibly severe if other conditions are right
The 500 temp isn't overly cold
The sounding is showing very nice moisture in the lower levels and moisture depth is good
Cloud base is at 912.86mb (892m)
There is some light change in the directional shear up to 700mb
SWEAT index reports a moderate chance of storms becoming severe
There is a little bit of moisture in the mid levels however the amount of dry air present will still help evaporative cooling to an extent, lightning and the formation of hail
Lower level winds are adequate
Mid level winds are good
Upper level winds (Jetstream) are good
There is no cap, storms will fire off early if other conditions are right
The overall CAP has a value of -1.96 C


Instability index of 5
LWinds Index of 2
MWinds Index of 3
UWinds Index of 3
Moisture Index of 25
Moisture Starts at 1000
Moisture Finishes at 750
Moisture Depth of 2458
Total Totals Index of 40
Helicity Index of -17,-38
Ridge Index of 0
Ridge Thickness Index of 0
Capping temperature Index of 0
Storm Index of 8

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#361935 - 28/11/2008 12:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
OIC_Napster Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/08/2007
Posts: 1702
Loc: Mooloolaba - Sunny Coast
Brisbane 00Z Sounding

Temp: 28.0 Falling
DP: 22.0 Falling
Hum 70%
Baro 1010.5hpa

LI's -4.55
Cape: 1558

Sounding Summary:
There is a moderate amount of instability to produce storms. Storm tops should reach 39616ft. Severe storms are a possibility and might be quite severe given the shear present, supporting hail 2cm+ in size
The 500mb level is showing strong instability, which is more than enough for storms and becoming favorable for severe storms if other conditions are right
The 500 temp isn't overly cold
The sounding is showing very nice moisture in the lower levels and moisture depth is good
Cloud base is at 916.73mb (850m)
There is some light change in the directional shear up to 700mb
SWEAT index reports a slight chance of storms becoming severe
There is a little bit of moisture in the mid levels however the amount of dry air present will still help evaporative cooling to an extent, lightning and the formation of hail
Lower level winds are adequate
Mid level winds are good
Upper level winds (Jetstream) are good
There is no cap, storms will fire off early if other conditions are right
The overall CAP has a value of -1.53 C
There is an inversion present from 850mb to 800mb

Instability index of 6
LWinds Index of 2
MWinds Index of 3
UWinds Index of 3
Moisture Index of 24
Moisture Starts at 1000
Moisture Finishes at 780
Moisture Depth of 2133
Total Totals Index of 43
Helicity Index of -16,-26
Ridge Index of 0
Ridge Thickness Index of 0
Capping temperature Index of 0
Storm Index of 7

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#361936 - 28/11/2008 12:28 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
ok some people are saying there i a cap others are saying no cap i am confuzzled now to me i am reading there there is a moderate cap and we will need about 32 to break it but will the high dps help to break the cap? confused

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#361937 - 28/11/2008 12:29 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
OIC_Napster Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/08/2007
Posts: 1702
Loc: Mooloolaba - Sunny Coast
I dont even know how to work it out, i just go by what the Weather mon says lol

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#361938 - 28/11/2008 12:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
LittleDavey83 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2005
Posts: 725
Loc: Coral Cove, QLD
Southeast Coast forecast has "thundery rain developing from the west late evening and overnight" - I guess they feel it will come through too late, and the storms will have dissipated into "thundery rain"...

I'm prepared to wait this one out though...it looks pretty good to me...

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#361939 - 28/11/2008 12:32 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
the thundry rain would be coming in form the west tonight

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#361940 - 28/11/2008 12:33 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
OIC_Napster, would you be able to do the sounding for Wagga Wagga?
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#361941 - 28/11/2008 12:37 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
OIC_Napster Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/08/2007
Posts: 1702
Loc: Mooloolaba - Sunny Coast
Seems to be fireing off out west already. I think it will be a late start, maybe to late for a decent storm.

Apocalype, check your PM

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#361942 - 28/11/2008 12:37 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Tulloch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2008
Posts: 699
Loc: Brisbane, Carseldine
By the looks of the radar there may be some devlopment starting out west but we'll just have to wait and see how far it gets. The sounding is predicting storms will fire early too.

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#361943 - 28/11/2008 12:39 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by OIC_Napster:
Seems to be fireing off out west already. I think it will be a late start, maybe to late for a decent storm.

Apocalype, check your PM
Thanks for that. Yeah maybe if they would have held up a bit, we would have a decent storm.
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#361944 - 28/11/2008 12:40 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW rain/storms 25-30 Nov
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it is a waiting game now it is game on just got to wait for the action to reach our neck of the woods

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