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#37255 - 28/10/2008 20:40 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1401
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
We'll have some of that too! So very, very dry here. Does not look like anything to come in the near future. Can see an extremely dry hot summer coming up. frown
Duane.

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#37256 - 28/10/2008 21:05 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Please... nooo. So far we have had nine days this month 30C or above, which is a record, and 4 consecutive days of 30C or above, which is the second highest. The Maximums for the next 3 days show temps more than 30C so that would make 7 consecutive day, which is possibly a record.
_________________________
Nathan Morris


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#37257 - 29/10/2008 16:20 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Mantis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2008
Posts: 203
Loc: Horsham
Looked at the radar and thought here she comes. Then looked up rainfall totals for SA and thought, no she doesnt

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#37258 - 29/10/2008 16:21 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Adiabatic Offline
Member

Registered: 01/09/2001
Posts: 14190
Loc: Knoxfield 96m: 120.2mm
No the rainfall is developing on the back half thanks to thunderstorms along the C coast and inland. Mainly W of Ceduna at this time.

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#37259 - 02/11/2008 17:24 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
chill out Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/10/2007
Posts: 138
Loc: Pascoe vale South (ex Wodonga)
what are peoples thoughts on next weekends system? 20-40mm on some of the models. Same old story? wait till closer to the event/ there will be downgrades? Or something in it?

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#37260 - 02/11/2008 17:27 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
It's a definite prospect at this stage but way too far out at this stage to be confident of the 10-40mm falls progged.

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#37261 - 02/11/2008 17:54 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
I have a good 'feeling' about it. A few of the models have been suggesting it for a little while now and GFS seems to have gone nuts with it in this afternoons run. Downgrades and upgrades are likely till we get closer, even then its uncertain, though will be interesting to see ECs update tonight at 6pm.

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#37262 - 03/11/2008 10:54 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2204
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
if you reckon GFS has gone nuts with it, check out GASP for this friday! that would be insane if it comes off, above 30mm for 90% of vic and most of southern NSW! Its definately got my attention. I just hope, as always seems to be the case, it doesnt turn out to be a fizzer. Time will tell.

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#37263 - 03/11/2008 11:28 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
The current water vapour infeeds from up in the NW going into friday's GASP model set up just does not seem to be of a sufficient amount to justify and sustain GASP's predictions for the forecast Vic rainfall totals.
The BOM's computer generated Water & Land are also suggesting big totals for friday.
The low off WA at the moment would have to tap into a very substantial source of moisture from around the Kimberly area to get the neccessary amount of water into the system as it comes through Vic.
GASP is relying on a deep and short lived surface trough developing on Thursday for this to happen.
In short I very much doubt GASP's forecast and even more so the amounts but oh how good it would be to be proven wrong and GASP right for a change.
It won't do the farmers much good north of Horsham as the crops are mostly about buggered but the later southern grain areas will still get big benefits from some decent rain.

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#37264 - 03/11/2008 11:41 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2204
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Cool, thanks for that ROM. It would be nice to be suprised once in a while.

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#37265 - 14/11/2008 16:50 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Thought I'd bring this thread back to life!!!

Next week looking good IMO. Good work John for picking it up so early. GASP, JMA and EC looking good in particular forming a low during the outlook period, though GFS is having no bar of it ATM only coming on during THursday with showers and thunderstorms.

Just briefly thats it, but I will ad more detail when EC GFS etc.. get updated.

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#37266 - 15/11/2008 12:29 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
AaronD Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 1017
Loc: Tokyo, Japan
Yeh PS, i just looked at that then.
Looks great at this stage, some places could get near 100mm for the few days.
suppose its like all ECLs, just depends on how it goes closer to the date.

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#37267 - 15/11/2008 13:34 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Yeah mate. Big falls could be on the horizon. Interesting scenario developing around the middle of the week though first. A trough IMO will be set-up across eastern Victoria on Tuesday to cause isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon over the eastern districts mostly, though conditions may become right for something to develop in the western district. The trough sticks around on Wednesday causing showers and thunderstorms generally statewide IMO, however the northwest may get lesser rainfall than elsewhere. Interesting on Thursday. The trough could develop into a low. Models are up and down with this. EC, JMA and GASP have the low develop over Victoria, though GFS has an ECL instead. THe result from the low forming over Vic though would be big falls across the state with the expectation of the heavier stuff in the east. Everything slides away on Friday though I am interested in the weekend now. GFS and JMA show another low developing west of the state on Friday. GASP also does to a lesser extenct. All models however show the low moving over Victoria on Saturday with rain areas and very windy conditions.

So all in all, some very big rainfall totals expected over the coming week, with rain areas, thunderstorms and showers. Regarding temperatures I dont think it will get really cold until after the second low (a cold southerly blast).

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#37268 - 15/11/2008 16:30 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
WOW! GFS has two ECLs developing one after the other from Wednesday to Monday leaving us in S/SE convergent stream here in VIC throughout the period. Before that we have the troughy conditions with tropical moisture. What that would mean for here is a few storms tending to rain to begin with on Tuesday and Wednesday, then rain, possibly heavy on Thursday particularly for the Eastern two thirds of the state, then showery for Friday, a major rain event on Saturday in convergent SEs again with the next low forming inland and showery Sunday easing to a few showers Monday. Only problem could be the 'Tasmanian block' on those last two days.

Anyway that's the GFS scenario, I'm expecting something completely different from EC but just commenting on what a bizarre and incredible scenario that GFS one is. We would be looking at around 100mm plus from that if it came off for the west central ranges of VIC which due to topography and aspect do extremely well in SE flow, even more for Gippsland and the Otways.

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#37269 - 15/11/2008 16:48 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Considering JMA had both lows this morning too I think theres a reasonable chance EC might show it too tonight smile but I'll probably eat those words now that I've said this :p

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#37270 - 15/11/2008 16:53 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Haha. I hope not John.

I dont know what to make of this week anymore. Models are changing around sooo much with so many lows and troughs and arghhh! Its so confusing! The one thing I do know however is that it will be wet.

BTW, GFS is also called US as well? Is it the only model that produces LI and CAPE values?

My weather asessment will be done around 5:30pm.

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#37271 - 15/11/2008 16:57 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Thats right Jake GFS is US same model but some people call it differently & I think it is the only model that shows LI and CAPE

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#37272 - 15/11/2008 17:33 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Thanks John. Very much appreciated.

I will not be here for the update of EC, so I will have to make most of my assumptions on GFS and some of the other models ATM but will go more in-depth tomorrow morning.

Some very big falls would be expected if JMA and GFS comes off, GASP is similar in a way just not progging the extra bit of rainfall. For now because I am about to leave, central/eastern vic would see good rain on Thursday then statewide on Saturday/Sunday. Storms on the Tuesday in the east, throughout on Wednesday, clearing THursday but redeveloping in the colder air on Sunday.

ANyway. I will go more detailed tomorrow morning its just I have to go and milk now then go out to tea!

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#37273 - 15/11/2008 17:43 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
No worries Jake. Interesting that 12z NOGAPS also has the 2nd cut off low in the bight by Friday night so EC is the only one that shyed away from it this morning and delaying that system until the week after.

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#37274 - 15/11/2008 18:11 Re: Looking towards the next substantial rainfall for SE Australia??
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Well, EC doesn't have the ECLs but it does have a low developing from central AUS approaching VIC around Wednesday and deepening as it moves over us on Thursday and then a potential cold outbreak with scattered heavy showers likely. As the system deepens as it approaches us we are in line for the best rainfall with that and probably even better for the whole state than the GFS scenario. I would be leaning towards 25-100mm for the state with the EC scenario with an average fall probably around 30-40mm.

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