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#1124373 - 01/09/2012 23:05 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for August 2012
"Dry Air: Warm Soil"

Daily max temps remained just below normal in August, as in May, June, and July. Cloudiness was also stable, at about 8% above normal.

From July to August:
* Rainfall went from very high to very low;
* Dew Point went from low to extremely low;
* Temperature Range went from low to high;
* Daily min temps went from very high to very low;
* The subsoil remained extraordinarily warm.
The subsoil temperature anomaly has moved with the anomaly of maximum air temperature for eight months, but is tracking 2.5 degrees higher. This relation is shown by a green line on the bottom left graph.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include the whole summer season ending February 2012. At Manilla, this covered a "flooding rains" climate peak that was very much wetter, and somewhat cooler than that a year earlier. The variables reached peaks in sequence as follows:
Nov-11: Rainfall (max); Subsoil temp (min);
Dec-11: Temp range (min); Dew Pt (max);
Jan-12: Temp max (min);
Mar-12: Temp min (min).
Peaks for some variables are not in the usual sequence.

Note:
New data for August 2012 allow updating with more smoothing applied to all months back to February 2012, which is now fully smoothed. Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1129691 - 30/09/2012 11:46 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for September 2012
"Still Very Dry Air"

In September, daily max temps finally rose above normal. As in August, Dew Points (humidity) remained extremely low, daily minimum temperature very low, rainfall low, and daily temperature range very high. Cloudiness finally fell below normal, and subsoil temperature fell towards normal.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include March 2012. All variables for that month show a retreat from the "flooding rains" climate peak. Because the daily minimum temperature anomaly did not reach a minimum in March as I expected, the sequence of peaks must be amended as follows:
Nov-11: Rainfall (max); Subsoil temp (min);
Dec-11: Temp range (min); Dew Pt (max);
Jan-12: Temp max (min);
Feb-12: Temp min (min).
The February 2012 value of smoothed minimum daily temperature anomaly (-1.11 degrees) was not quite as low as the record set in March 2008 (-1.17 degrees).

Note:
New data for September 2012 allow updating with more smoothing applied to all months back to March 2012, which is now fully smoothed. Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1135614 - 25/10/2012 23:11 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
At Manilla, NSW, the trends in temperature for days and nights through the year have changed dramatically during the last 13.5 years. Recently, days in midsummer have cooled extremely rapidly at this site.

The last Knappenberger graphs I posted compared two 9-year periods to August 2010 and August 2011:

This time I have compared my earliest data (9 years to February 2008) with my latest data (9 years to February 2012). The median dates of the two data sets, September 2003 and March 2008, are 4.5 years apart. The two data sets overlap by 50%.

1. Days
In the earlier period (blue), most winter days and a few mid-summer days cooled at 0.1 to 0.2 degrees per year. Days in spring and autumn, and cooler days in summer warmed at less than 0.1 degrees per year.
In the later period (red), all days of the year cooled, but there was a gradient from no cooling in midwinter to extremely rapid cooling (more than 0.3 degrees per year) in midsummer.
2. Nights
In the earlier period (blue), nights in the warmer half of the year, and in midwinter warmed at about 0.1 degrees per year. There was no warming either in midsummer or in the warmer part of winter.
In the later period (red), it was now in the cooler half of the year that nights warmed at about 0.1 degrees per year. Nights in the warmer part of summer cooled more and more rapidly as they approached midsummer, where the cooling rate was 0.25 degrees per year.
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#1136386 - 29/10/2012 23:20 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Humidity Variation

Humidity at Manilla is now in decade-low values. I have updated a plot of early morning dew point anomaly versus (early morning) minimum temperature anomaly. The value for October 2012 is for 29 days only.


The dew point trend
In the last 24 months, anomalies of dew point and daily minimum temperature have fallen along a linear trend-line (in pink). Dew point fell three times as fast as daily minimum temperature. As a result, early morning relative humidity also fell rapidly. The graph implies(in green) a value this month of about 60%. The actual mean reading is 63%, when it is normally 78%.

Epicyclic variation
Before the main trend begins, and once later, the trace has deviations that are arcs of circles. Each arc has a radius of less than one degree, and includes about 10 successive months. Typically rising dew point anomaly is followed after several months by falling temperature anomaly, then by falling dew point anomaly and rising temperature anomaly.
This same sequence occurred in graphs of earlier values of the same variables.

These loops on the graphs are quasi-biennial (say a one to three year cycle). The sequence is nearly always: rising dew point - falling temperature -falling dew point - rising temperature. This may be a natural mode of energy interchange at the land surface.

Someone can tell me if this is a well-known fact. blush
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#1136962 - 31/10/2012 21:10 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
great work SURLY.
I wish l had more time to read your research more thoroughly
I will keep an eye out for you re :your 'obs' on the cyclical observations you have found.
I don't know if it is an observed fact but the sequence looks very like maybe what you might expect from IOD / ENSO cycles.
IOD goes negative , moisture rises. It rains and drops temps.
IOD goes positive and air goes dry and temps increase

What l found interesting was in which months the transition occurred
from your graph . They were

OCT 2010
JULY 2011
JAN 2012
JULY 2012
---

In Oct 2012 the IOD transition month
JULY ? Commencement of New ENSO cycle
JAN..ENSO often peaks around this time

I reckon your graphs probably show a combination of ENSO/IOD signals

Interesting your graph dips linearly since JULY 2012!! wow
Strong pos IOD/ El Nino signal maybe?

The 2nd record low rainfall in SA during the past few months has Pos IOD and Neutral or El NINO ENSO all over it.and so does the Oz rainfall anomalies

Your straight line graph indicates quite a severe trend for drying
I find it interesting as l suspect the POS IOD has the greater effect on your cycles?
Although neutral Enso is often a dry signal as well l suppose. Depending on the IOD phase.

-------

There are lots of studies on ENSO cycle oscillations
Like this one.
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~csi/REF/pdfs/JNG95.pdf
Jiang et al identify a number of frequencies
52 ( QQ signal), 28 ( QB), 24( QB) and 15 month ( low frequency)

I would be more inclined to persue the combination of IOD/ENSO cycle to explain your moisture cycles. THe frequency of the IOD cycle is much shorter and may match some of your findings?

That's my thoughts anyway..

Good news may be that the next change in your cycle is due ? possibly with the IOD transition from October 2012
In 2009 the transition on your graph commenced to occur Novemberish
IOD went negative .


Sorry l cannot help more
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#1136967 - 31/10/2012 21:16 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for October 2012
"Rushing into drought"

In October, while daily maximum temperature remained not far above normal, raw values of all other monthly mean anomalies (except minimum temperature and soil temperature) moved much further in the "drought" direction. Most extreme was the dew point, which was nearly seven degrees below normal! Daily temperature range was also extremely wide. Rainfall was very low, and cloudiness lower than in recent months.
Minimum temperature anomaly moves erratically. October's extremely low value resulted from moderate maximum temperature and extreme daily temperature range.
Subsoil temperature returned to normal after seven months above normal.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include April 2012. All variables for that month show an advance towards the top right corner of the graphs (typical of droughts).
The April 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.00 degrees) is a new record low for smoothed data (now coloured blue), beating the record of July 2011 (-1.70 degrees).

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1137590 - 04/11/2012 13:30 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
October values and cubic trend lines

I now have data on changing climate at my site since March 1999. These changes can be represented by monthly anomaly values for each climate variable. Trends can be seen, but these trends differ between variables and between different months of the year.
Taking each calendar month in turn, I have plotted anomaly values (See Note 1.) for the 14 years of record .
I have fitted a trend line (available in Excel Charts) to each data series. With this length of record, one can go beyond a linear trend line, which would show only an increase or a decrease, and beyond a quadratic trend line, which would show one peak or trough. I have plotted a cubic trend line, which can show both a peak and a trough, if present.
The climate variables I have observed fall into two groups, graphed separately: those showing direct effects of solar heat (Heat Indicators) and those showing moisture (Moisture Indicators) (See Note 2.).
The graphs in this post show the anomalies of climate variables for the October months from 1999.

Heat Indicators
Daily maximum temperatures were very high in October 2007 and very low in 2010. The trend, however, shows just one peak in 2005, around the middle of the record.
Daily minimum temperatures were low in 2001 and 2012. The trend shows a trough in 2001 and a peak in 2008.
Daily mean temperatures were like daily maxima, but varied less. Their trend was like that of daily minima, but earlier in phase, with a trough in 2000 and a peak in 2007.
The trend of subsoil temperature was totally out of phase with air temperature, having a peak in 2002 and a trough in 2009.

Moisture Indicators
All moisture indicators tended to move together from year to year: October 2002 was extremely dry and October 2010 was extremely moist. All moisture trend lines had a trough about 2002 and a peak about 2008. The trend of cloudiness rose relative to the others, and the trend of dew point fell.



Note 1.
While anomalies of rainfall refer to a normal that is the average over 125 years from 1883, those of other variables refer to the average of the decade beginning March 1999.
Note 2. In the graph of Moisture Indicators, more moisture is at the top. One variable is plotted in the negative sense: High daily temperature range relates to low moisture. A composite "Moisture Index" is the average of the observed variables, with rainfall and cloud weighted as shown in the graph legend.
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#1146697 - 01/12/2012 15:51 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for November 2012
"In drought"

In November, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature (which had paused near zero for five months) suddenly rose to +3 degrees. Daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature also rose, but moisture variables (including daily temperature range) retreated from values typical of extreme drought. November was hotter than October, but not quite so dry.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) now include all of autumn 2012. During autumn, all smoothed variables showed a steady advance towards the top right corner of the graphs ("droughts"). However, four variables were still on the "flooding rains" side of neutral: Tmax, rainfall, cloud, and Tmin. Two variables were already on the "drought" side: dew point and subsoil temperature. Temperature range was neutral.
The May 2012 value of smoothed dew point anomaly (-2.30 degrees) is a new record low for smoothed data, beating the record of the previous month (-2.00 degrees).

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1147444 - 04/12/2012 12:36 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
November values and cubic trend lines

This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data. Click link for explanation.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the November months from 1999.

Heat Indicators
Daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures were very low at first (October 1999) and very high in 2002 (drought), 2009, and 2012. Daily maxima in November 2009 were extreme: over 5 degrees above normal.
The cubic trend line for daily minima rose throughout. That for daily maxima had a peak about 2003 and a trough about 2008 (despite the extreme data peak of 2009).
The trend of subsoil temperature was similar to that of daily maxima.

Moisture Indicators
November had a high moisture index in 2000, 2008, 2010 and 2011 and a low moisture index in 2002 and 2012.
Rainfall was extremely high (a November record) in 2011.
Cubic trend lines begin high, have a trough about 2002, a peak about 2009, and end a bit lower. The rainfall cubic trend line peaks late, about 2011, and scarcely falls at all.
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#1155418 - 05/01/2013 17:15 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for December 2012
"Retreat from drought"

In December, the anomaly of daily maximum temperature retreated from the November extreme of +3 degrees to +1.5 degrees. Dew Point and daily temperature range also retreated from drought values. Cloudiness remained normal and daily minimum temperature high. Subsoil temperature returned to the very high values of the winter months.
The variables maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and temperature range are now close to the smoothed values they had three years ago, in December 2009.

Fully-smoothed data (in red) for June 2012 have reached new records for low Dew Point anomaly (-2.61 degrees) and for high subsoil temperature anomaly (+1.99 degrees).

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1156003 - 07/01/2013 22:08 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Persistent extremely dry air
Extremely low morning dew points have now persisted at Manilla NSW for a very long time, and have become even more extreme lately. If the same is true over a wider area, it surely demands explanation.
The centre left graph in my post above shows dew point anomalies for the past 36 months, the first 30 data points being smoothed to reduce noise. Going back to earlier data from September 1999, a record low smoothed dew point anomaly of -1.48 degrees was set in October 2002, during an extreme 12-month drought.
For smoothed anomaly values, this low dew point record was not broken until June 2011, more than eight years later. Since that date, the dew point anomaly has remained extremely low. It was not quite as low as the old October 2002 record in the months from September 2011 to February 2012, but the highest it rose was -1.17 degrees in November and December 2011. Every month of smoothed data from March 2012 has made a new record low dew point anomaly! The next data point to be smoothed (July 2012) is likely to have a value near -2.96 degrees: just twice as large a negative anomaly as in the extreme drought of October 2002.
I call that extra-ordinary. nerd
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#1157245 - 10/01/2013 19:16 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
December values and cubic trend lines
This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the December months from 1999.

Heat Indicators
December maximum temperatures varied more than minimum temperatures, and were particularly low in 2010 and 2011. The highest maximum was in 2005, but both maxima and minima were very high in 2009 and 2012.
All cubic trend lines, except that for minima,rose to a peak about 2003, fell to a trough about 2009, then rose again.
The trend of minima was almost flat, with a peak about 2005.

Moisture Indicators
Apart from the very high rainfall of December 2004, moisture indicators moved together. Moisture was very low in 2006 and very high in 2007 and 2010.
Most cubic trend lines begin high, have a trough about 2002, a peak about 2009, and end a bit lower (dew point much lower). The rainfall cubic trend line peaks late, about 2004, then scarcely changes.
(December moisture trends are like those of November.)
Heat vs. Moisture
In December, more clearly than in other months, the trend lines for moisture indicators are vertically mirror-reversed to those of heat indicators. They express the alternation of cold-moist and hot-dry Australian climate enjoyed by Ms. McKellar.
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#1161925 - 21/01/2013 22:08 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
September values and cubic trend lines

This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data.
Click link for explanation.

I post graphs for each month as I collate 14 years of data. Since months with 14 years of data began from May 2012, there is a backlog of un-posted graphs for May 2012 to September 2012. I plan to work back through these months as well as posting for the current month, so as to complete a 12-month set.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the September months from 1999.

Heat Indicators
Daily maximum temperatures were very low in September 2004 and 2010. The cubic trend, however, shows just one trough, around 2008.
Despite daily minimum temperatures being extremely high in 2002, the trend shows a trough in 2002 and a peak in 2008.
The daily mean temperature was high in 2002 and low in 2004. The trend was almost constant, but declining slightly.
The trend of subsoil temperature was totally out of phase with that of minimum air temperature, having a peak in 2001 and a trough in 2008.

Moisture Indicators
Moisture indicators tended to move together from year to year, with September of 2005 and 2010 being very moist. Remarkably, September 2011 had very high rainfall but extremely low dew point. All moisture trend lines had a trough about 2002 and a peak about 2008.The trend of dew point fell extremely low after 2008.
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#1169186 - 30/01/2013 18:45 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Subsoil temperatures vs. dew points now out of kilter
Data for the last eight months at Manilla show there has been an extreme inbalance between early morning dew points, which have been about three degrees lower than normal, and subsoil temperatures (at 750 mm), which have been about two degrees higher than normal.

The two variables have very similar annual cycles, with minima in July and maxima, about 12 degrees higher, in February. The early morning dew point is normally 12 degrees below the subsoil temperature. Recent anomalies in the two make the dew point about 17 degrees below the subsoil temperature.
It is often the case that the early morning minimum air temperature is about 2 degrees above the dew point. Then the minimum air temperature would normally be 10 degrees below the subsoil temperature and, in the current extreme case, 15 degrees below it.
This implies an early morning temperature gradient down through the soil of 13 degrees per metre normally, but 20 degrees per metre in recent months.
I imagine that such a persistent 50% increase in temperature gradient in the soil could play merry hell with crop management.

So far, I have not found any systematic errors in my data.

To get a clearer picture, I will have to calculate smoothed values of dew points, minimum air temperatures, and subsoil temperatures, rather than smoothed values of their anomalies.


Edited by Surly Bond (30/01/2013 18:50)
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#1169319 - 31/01/2013 11:36 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for January 2013
"Hot nights; hot subsoil"

Extreme heat and aridity in early January 2013 did not persist. The maximum temperature anomaly remained high, but the only other high anomalies were a very high minimum temperature and subsoil temperature.
Cloudy skies returned, after some months near the normal for 1999 to 2009.

Fully-smoothed data for July 2012 have again reached new records for low Dew Point anomaly (-2.92 degrees) and for high subsoil temperature anomaly (+2.07 degrees).


Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1169728 - 01/02/2013 14:52 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
January values and cubic trend lines
This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the January months from 2000.

Heat Indicators
January maximum temperatures varied more than minimum temperatures, and were particularly low in 2008 and 2012. Both maxima and minima were very high in 2013.
All cubic trend lines, including that for the subsoil, rose to a peak about 2004, fell to a trough about 2010, then rose again.



Moisture Indicators
January rainfall varied remarkably in the middle years, being very low in 2002, 2003, and 2007 and very high in 2004 and 2006. Other moisture indicators varied less.
Cubic trend lines did not agree. The trend for rainfall, like those for heat indicators, had a peak in 2004 (hot-wet) and a trough in 2010 (cool-dry). The cloudy days trend is almost a steady increase. Dew point began and ended low, peaking in 2008. Trends for both daily temperature range (minus) and the composite "moisture index" rose to a constant value by 2007.
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#1170175 - 03/02/2013 00:10 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
August values and cubic trend lines

This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data.
Click link for explanation.

The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the August months from 1999. This reduces the backlog of data beginning May 1999.

Heat Indicators
Daily maximum temperatures were very low in August 2008 and 2010 and very high in 2009. Daily minima were also low in 2008 but were high in 2007. Subsoil temperatures were high in 2012.
The cubic trend line for maximum temperatures is almost constant, while that for minima falls to a trough in 2001, rises to a peak in 2009, then falls. The trend for subsoil temperature is the inverse of that for minima (or seven years out of phase).

Moisture Indicators
Moisture indicators tended to move together from year to year, without extremes. Only August 2010 had an extremely low temperature range, and August 2012 an extremely low dew point. All moisture trend lines had a trough about 2002 and a peak near 2008. However, the peak for dew point was earlier (2007) followed by a steep fall, while the peak for cloudiness came in 2012.
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#1170435 - 04/02/2013 22:20 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
July values and cubic trend lines

This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data. Click link for explanation.

The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the July months from 1999. This reduces the backlog of data beginning May 1999.

Heat Indicators
Daily maximum temperatures were low only in July 2007. Daily minima were very low in 2002 but were very high in 2010. Subsoil temperatures were extremely high in 2012.
The cubic trend line for maximum temperatures falls, to become almost constant by 2007, while that for minima falls to a trough in 2002, rises to a very high peak in 2010, then falls. The trend for subsoil temperature falls along with maximum temperature until 2006, then rises, to end extremely high.

Moisture Indicators
All moisture indicators were extremely low in July 2002 (drought), and most were extremely high in July 2010. Dew point alone was high in July 1999, and rainfall alone was high in July 2012.
The cubic trend line for July rainfall stood alone: it had a (low) peak in 2001, a trough in 2007, and ended high.
Other moisture trend lines had a trough about 2003 and a peak near 2009. However, the peak for dew point came early (2008) followed by a steep fall, while the peak for cloudiness came late (2011). For (minus) daily temperature range, the peak in 2009-10 was very high (days were not much warmer than nights, as on the coast).
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#1170954 - 08/02/2013 13:08 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
June values and cubic trend lines

This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data. Click link for explanation.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the June months from 1999. This reduces the backlog of data beginning May 1999.

Heat Indicators
Daily maximum temperatures were very low in July 2007. Daily minima were very high in 2005, 2008 and 2009. Subsoil temperatures were very high in 2012.
The cubic trend line for maximum temperature rises to a peak in 2001 and falls to a trough in 2009. The trend for minima is mirror-reversed. As a result, the trend for mean temperatures is almost constant. The trend for subsoil temperature is constant until 2006, then rises to end high.

Moisture Indicators
Rainfall was very high in June 2005 and (minus) daily temperature range very high in 2007. Dew point was very low in June 2006.
All cubic trend lines began low and peaked late, but they differed in detail. Rainfall had a trough in the first year and a peak in 2008. Cloudiness similarly had a trough in the first year, but its peak came only in 2010. The trend of dew point began high and reached a trough in 2003, then followed rainfall. The trend of (minus) daily temperature range had a trough in 2001 and a high peak in 2009.
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#1171734 - 12/02/2013 22:15 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2037
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
May values and cubic trend lines

This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data. Click link for explanation.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the May months from 1999, the first month that had 14 years of data for all series.

Heat Indicators
Heat indicators for May months varied little, except for one very low value of daily minimum temperature, in May 2006.
Cubic trend lines for maximum, mean, and minimum temperature fell to a trough in 2003, rose to a peak in 2009, then fell. The trend for subsoil temperature was mirror-reversed.

Moisture Indicators
Like the heat indicators, May values of rainfall, moisture index,and (minus) temperature range varied little. Cloudiness and dew point varied more: May of 2010 and 2011 were very cloudy; May dew points were extremely high in 1999, very high in 2007, very low in 2006 (with daily minima), and extremely low in 2012.
The cubic trend line for rainfall was almost flat. The trends for (minus) daily temperature range and moisture index began a little high, remained near zero from 2004 to 2009, then fell a little. The trend for cloudiness began and ended high, with a trough at 2004. May dew point (like the moisture index) was near zero from 2004 to 2009, but it began extremely high and ended extremely low.
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