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#1178998 - 01/03/2013 23:28 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
February values and cubic trend lines
This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data.
The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the February months from 2000.

Heat Indicators
February air temperatures were very low in 2008, 2012 and 2013. Subsoil temperatures were very high in 2007.
All cubic trend lines, excluding that for the subsoil, were near-constant until 2006, then fell, ending very low. The subsoil trend had a low peqk in 2004, and a trough in 2009.


Moisture Indicators
All February moisture indicators were low in 2000 and 2005. Rainfall was extremely high in 2012 (5th wettest Feb), and dew point very low in 2013.
Cubic trend lines for rainfall and for cloudy days showed a slow steady increase. The trend for daily temperature range (minus) was almost flat. That for dew point rose to a peak in 2007, then fell, to end very low.
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#1181259 - 06/03/2013 23:18 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for February 2013
"Suddenly colder"

Temperatures, both max and min, fell from very high in January to very low in February. Daily temperature range and rainfall remained normal. Dew point remained very low, while cloudiness and subsoil temperature remained high.

Winter 2012
Fully-smoothed data (in red) reveal that the trend in winter, as in autumn, was towards "droughts" (top right) for all variables except subsoil temperature (which peaked). Mean values over winter, however, were very different:
* Subsoil temperature: very high;
* Cloudiness and temperature range: rather high;
* Maximum temperature and rainfall: normal;
* Minimum temperature: rather low;
* Dew point: extremely low.
In August, dew point anomaly again reached a new record low: -3.21 degrees. (See discuusion above in Post #1156003 and Post #1169186.

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
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#1187090 - 31/03/2013 18:33 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for March 2013
"Now cool and wet"

While raw values of temperature anomalies were not as low as in February, March was further towards cool, moist conditions than December or January, or any months since July.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for September 2012 continued to move towards drought. The dew point anomaly reached a seventh successive new record low: -3.37 degrees. (See discussion above.)

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1187649 - 04/04/2013 00:11 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
March values and cubic trend lines
This post is in a series begun with October 2012 data.

The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the March months from 2000.

Heat Indicators
March minimum air temperatures were very low in 2008, and subsoil temperatures were very high in 2007.
All cubic trend lines, excluding that for the subsoil, began high, fell to a trough, rose to a peak, and ended low. Maximum temperatures were two years earlier in phase than minimum temperatures. The subsoil trend was steady until 2009, then rose.

Moisture Indicators
All March moisture indicators were low in 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2009. Rainfall was extremely high in 2007, and cloudiness in 2011.
Cubic trend lines for all moisture indicators began high and fell to troughs.
* For cloudiness, the trough in 2004 led to a high peak in 2013.
* For dew point, the trough in 2005 led to a low peak in 2010, then a fall.
* For moisture index and (minus) temperature range, the trough in 2005 led to a slow rise to 2013.
* For rainfall, the trough was very late (2008).
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#1193097 - 08/05/2013 10:12 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for April 2013
"Back to warm and very dry"

In April the raw value of maximum temperature anomaly became high and (indicating aridity) those of rainfall, dew point, and minimum temperature extremely low, and that of temperature range extremely wide. Cloud remained normal, and subsoil temperature high.

Fully-smoothed data points (red) for October 2012 continued to move towards higher maximum temperature, but scarcely moved further towards drought.

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1193177 - 08/05/2013 21:31 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Monthly Climate Anomalies, Manilla, NSW
14 years from 1999
April values and cubic trend lines
This post is the last in a 12-monthly series from May to April. The first-posted was October.

The graphs posted here show the anomalies of climate variables for the April months from 2000.

Heat Indicators
April maximum air temperatures were very high in 2005; both maxima and minima were very low in 2008.
All cubic trend lines, except that for daily minima, rose to a peak in 2003, and fell to a trough about 2010. The trend for daily minima steadily fell.

Moisture Indicators
April rainfall was extremely high in 2003, and dew point extremely low in 2013.
Cubic trend lines for all moisture indicators except rainfall fell to troughs between 2003 and 2005, and rose to peaks between 2008 and 2011.
Rainfall began steady, then fell slightly.

Now I have posted data for all twelve months of the fourteen years, all I have to do is collate them and find a pattern! wink
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1193275 - 09/05/2013 21:15 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Awesome work SB. Look forward to your analysis in the future
The decline in dew point from 2000 and then again from 2009 is a stand out for me.The last 12 month drop has been exceptional
so you didn't benefit from the la Nina.. If l remember your data showed an inverse relation . You are dry during la Nina . ( george lake/ Manilla )
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#1193288 - 09/05/2013 22:23 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: crikey]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Originally Posted By: crikey
If l remember your data showed an inverse relation . You are dry during la Nina . ( george lake/ Manilla )

No, crikey, my detailed Manilla data shows a close direct correlation with ENSO. This is shown in three posts in this thread 18 months ago.
* For much of the time, Manilla daily max temperatures closely match NINO3.4 sea surfaces temperatures, but Manilla temperatures are often one month earlier than NINO3.4 temperatures:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...var#Post1023937
* For much of the time, Manilla rainfall extremes closely match NINO3.4 extremes in the expected sense (high rainfall with La Nina), but Manilla rainfall is often two months earlier than NINO3.4:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...var#Post1024825
* For much of the time, Manilla dew point extremes closely match NINO3.4 extremes in the expected sense (high dew points with La Nina), but Manilla dew point extremes are often three months earlier than NINO3.4:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...var#Post1029936

I said:
"In a simple-minded way, it seems to me more likely that Australia's climate drives the Southern Oscillation than the other way around. I know that this is speculation. (Sort of like Abraham Ortellius suggesting in 1587 that Africa and South America might have drifted apart.)"
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#1193360 - 10/05/2013 20:12 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
Some great! work you have been doing there SB
Yes l can see the close correlation with Nino 3.4 you refer to from your 2011 study

Interesting that change in dew point comes first.!!( 3 month lag with Nino 3.4)
Followed by rainfall ( 2 month lag)
followed by change in temp one month lag

Yes it would seem from that info' as you suggest, that Australian mainland initiates Nino 3.4 temp.
and as weather patterns at the surface move from west to east that would seem an interesting perspective.
Of course it may be something similar to a moving pulse like the MJO that continually migrates from the west to east.
or maybe Nino 3.4 follows IOD in the west?
or ??
synoptic patterns migrate from west to east in bands?

A bit concerning SB that you have recorded some extreme dry dew points since mid 2012.

Now according to your findings. Generally the Nino 3.4 follows 3 months later.with
High temps and reduced rainfall!
That would give us an el nino.!! Not good

What are your thoughts on the current situation regarding your current Temp, dew point rainfall obs since mid 2012 and your past noted correlations with nino 3.4
-----------

Now as to why l thought there was an inverse relationship..
I Had a look back at what caused me to believe this.
On a decadal scale the relationship you have found may not hold as well in the longer term

The CUSUM cumulative SOI from 1975 to 2000 was indicating a dominant el nino period yet George lake continued to remain at high levels and rain did not reduce until AFTER 2000.

The image below indicates what l thought l understood?

From 1975 to 2000 the rainfall at manilla and especially Lake George continued to increase despite a cumulative SOI indicating an El Nino trend. There fore an inverse relationship?

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#1193378 - 10/05/2013 21:47 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6466
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Crikey, regardless of whether any of us consider your interpretation or SB's is correct, (re the topics circa 5 posts above), what impresses me is the manner you acknowledge a counter opinion, then express your evidence without flame - always.

I'd love you to start an educational thread on your methodology on how to counter alternative technical views to our own, in a manner that allows rational debate to continue to the benefit of us all. In my view most of us are not good at that.

Your posts make me realize I'm up there with the "worst offenders".

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#1193382 - 10/05/2013 22:24 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
I've always thought her strong backing of ACCESS global and T was worthy.
I look forward to Crikey's cyclone posts in the future.
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#1193501 - 11/05/2013 20:57 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
No methodology PETROS. I used to get quite " hot under the collar'..until l was nicely reprimanded by a moderator a few years back and l swiftly learnt that l had had been trolling ..which being a sensitive person ..upset me.

So l am now ...very pleasant... in my approach.. and tread carefully..LOL
Peer pressure.. poke

Thanks guys'for lovely positive feedback.
Thanks for the warm welcome to my first year studying cyclones boomer. What happened to TCPoncho.. You do miss the regular contributors when they go AWOL
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http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1193508 - 11/05/2013 21:17 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
TC Poncho is a law unto himself... he will be back as soon as the Sth Pac fires up next season.
Different threads, different contributors.
Different opinions and honest obs are always welcome. The best thing about WZ is being able to throw ideas onto the wind.
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1197151 - 02/06/2013 18:14 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for May 2013
"Still warm; not quite so dry"



May continued warm, but not quite so dry. Skies became cloudy again, and minimum temperature rose back to normal.

Points in red for November 2012 complete fully-smoothed data for last spring. They define a reversal of climate. Anomalies of moisture variables (rainfall, cloud, dew point, and (minus) temperature range) peaked in the "drought" sense in September or October. The anomaly of daily maximum temperature peaked (probably) in November, and that of daily minimum temperature peaked later (date uncertain).

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1201445 - 27/06/2013 00:22 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Surly B!

I have not commented or interacted on this. I am sorry - the effort you put in deserves a lot of respect and I admit, that some of the stuff you put up would have required me expending a lot of effort to "bone" up on it to do it justice! But know that I have followed it with great interest.

The effort and dedication you put into this is exemplary. Thank you.

Always follow your passion! It's the greatest reward there is.

cheers - Arnost
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1201708 - 29/06/2013 09:54 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Thanks very much, Arnost.
You were a help in the first pages of this thread. I now realise that the "Quasi-Biennial Oscillation" that I thought no-one else had discovered is what La Nina and El Nino are all about.
There is much work still to be done in climate research at the level where amateurs like me can add something.
I hope you will keep posting here.
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1201748 - 29/06/2013 18:27 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Seeing as the green extremists have got the result they were after and have stifled debate.. One can only be disappointed with Weatherzone, and in doing so, I am closing my account.... Do not bill me again!!

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#1201757 - 29/06/2013 19:31 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
The loss is to both sides of the debate. No one can talk about C02 or about climate anymore.!. We can only talk about the daily short term weather..
sort of a half cut approach to weather reporting

A loss to WZ which loses a significant role in educating the community

A loss to the blog 'Skeptical science in that it has shot itself in the foot and no longer can ..USE... WZ as an advertising medium to 'save the world'

Surely some new fresh moderators would have done the job to resolve the staff shortage of moderators


A gain to some other forum or blog that gains the expertise of some outstanding researchers and debaters from WZ

There is some new research out currently from the CSIRO that explains where our cold fronts have gone and how C02 has altered synoptic patterns.. But l can't present or debate the findings on this forum anymore, neither can anyone else
..
Many amateurs ..Out of work. I guess

Why post here in this thread ..at all.. knowing WZ has no commitment to continuity and climate SCIENCE RESEARCH.

Very sad at the loss of forum members who l have come to look forward to reading their posts..

A sad period in the history of WZ Australia

I have some new info'about the IPO and heat 'trapped in the sea' from new research and found on another site that the inflection point in Surly bonds data for st George is also found in another famous water storage in OZ
But. that is climate.. and the atmosphere and is a banned theme

I Feel many like 'surlybond' who most feel let down and discarded
as his excellent research online may now be restrained and fettered by WZ climate policy

WZ should be honoured he had chosen WZ as a medium to present his findings and attracted readers and clients to the site

Sorry to hear WZ did not have the will to maintain this excellent component of the business.
Seems the easy way out.

Linked below.. is a climate forum in the UK that has a novel way of running climate debate and survives quite well

some Ozzie contributors there.


For those seeking an alternative to the loss ! at WZ and are suffering from withdrawal symptoms !!and need your hit of climate debate !!

l have had a look around last night and the best l could find is

http://forum.netweather.tv/

It is novel in that there are 2 sections
One for AGW
and
One for skeptics.
You are asked to stick to the section that best suits your ideology to reduce argument

I hope SB you will be able to continue your excellent work unfetterd by restrictions on discussion

we will have to await the new guidelines.

Yes, I am disappointed too Simmosurf.

Just a loss to everyone ..All around..

Grieving!!
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1201780 - 29/06/2013 22:30 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: crikey]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 291
Loc: Kyabram
ditto - the topics left are ok but no where near as stimulating as the climate discussion pages and I'm NOT just talking climate change. The other sections in climate and climate change were very interesting. I did suggest splitting climate and climate change a while back. Maybe if that had happened we'd still be ok. Members banned, members leaving and less members contributing, can't be good for anyone. There are pros and cons but to completely shut down the discussion is almost as childish as some of the posters.

I'm taking my bat and ball home - go find somewhere and someone else to play with.

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#1202016 - 01/07/2013 22:41 Re: Observations of climate variation [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2060
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Manilla Smoothed Monthly Anomalies of Climate Variables
Parametric Plots
Update for June 2013
"Suddenly very wet"



While days were only a little cooler than normal in June, moisture variables were extremely high. Rainfall, cloudiness and daily temperature range went beyond the blue lines. Cloudiness reached a record for this data set.
Both daily minimum temperature and subsoil temperature were also very high.

The fully-smoothed data point for December 2012 shows a drift towards normal from the mild drought of October.

Note:
Fully smoothed data - gaussian smoothing with half-width 6 months - are plotted in red, partly smoothed data uncoloured, and raw data for the last data point in orange. January data points are marked by squares.
Blue diamonds and the dashed blue rectangle show the extreme values in the fully smoothed data record since September 1999.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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