I have done that on several occasions Pete
eg HOPE!

It's all just a crazy mess at the moment although IMO that's better than having a massive high centred right over your head and staying there for a month like what happened June 2006. With the current model outputs there is room there for improvement with the high very slowly slinking away to the south and east leaving us exposed to possible cut offs with inland origin etc.

Its very depressing to see all that rain up north and nothing but sunny days down here.
Every dam, swamp, lake and river bone dry.
Depressing
Shocking
So deprssing

Marvin -Brain as big as a planet , but I still cant make it rain

One thing that makes me so jealous is how these blocking highs of ours are giving New Zealand cold snap upon cold snap. One happening right now, and already the models have more lined up for the end of next week. I think New Zealand must have had some of the coldest weather in its history over the past several years. In 2006 they had 50cm snow at sea level at Timaru just south of Christchurch, about 5 sea level snows in Christchurch in one winter. Last year I think there was around 4.5m of snow at Ruapehu resort a new record.

These blocking systems of ours are just creating a perpetual channel of cold fronts over New Zealand. Just not sure why it would be getting more set in rails and concrete, gouged on the face of the Earth like a perpetual river, almost unstopable now.

On the brighter side, and trying to be positive, EC is still optimistic about rain on Monday. It's been consistent on this one for several days now...

One concern is the MJO. It's not budging from Phase #7.

chop the damn high tree that these highs keep getting hooked on!

I've totally forgotten to post on this as I meant to the other week, work has gotten the better of me lately sorry.

Now this low you stress is not a cut-off. It most certainly is. Now if I am correct here, you are trying to say that a REAL cut-off low is much bigger and stronger with a high right underneath it, cradling it etc. Yep that's a cut-off too but so is this....ANY LOW not attached to the westerly belt is a cut-off low. Thought I would clear that up first.

You said your question remains out there to me and yes I did read it and will answer. But you still dodged my direct question as well!! I want to clear that up first before we move on to ensure we are on the right track here.

Ian, you are dead right in the assessment of those good years of 2000,2001,2003,2004,2005, not all of them were good all across SE Aus but they were good in SA. VIC has unfortunately copped the very raw end of the stick when it comes to these bad years. In all honesty they havent had a decent year since 1996, 2003 was alright but a decent proper year has been lacking for a very long time. But elsewhere that is NOT the case, it is solely an isolated case. All parts of Australia have had good and bad years in that 12 year period, with record crops in 2001 and again IIRC in 2004. Bumper harvest, especially in SA. 2001 would be one such year that we had countless strong frontal systems with good rains right through winter and especially spring....and that's just the start.

But one thing I want to make very clear is that THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS NORMAL Remember that. What you are 'used' to or what you had back in the good old days rainwise/storm wise might be the good times and it might have seemed fairly consistent and generally reliable. But that was then. This is now. Things are different atm but we can't say this is abnormal or strange because there is never anything to gauge it by since the weather and climate is in a constant state of flux so the normal argument is rubbish. What we have now (the pattern) is absolutely related to the SST structure right across the globe, and definitely has a strong relation to the IOD and PDO. Especially the past 3 years and this is when the highs really started to dominate and become a strong feature across winter, who will forget 2006, stinker everywhere and 2007 not much better after a good start (in SA anyways). But because we had such a bad period doesn't mean we have to hit the panic buttons. If we understand what is happening up there then we should have good faith that it will switch back to a wetter period. Just because you havent seen a 'block' or a bad run of dry winters in the past few years doesn't mean it hasn't happened before. 100 years of records is absolutely laughable when it comes to discussing synoptic patterns. If you conducted your experiments based on that data you might as well feed it to your dog, it's simply not enough. But anyways I'll stop there.

But get back to me Johnoo on the patterns that govern the best rains across SA, especially the coastal areas they are a lot more common than you think.

TS

Some good points there TS. I think we can often get caught up in wanting things to go back to normal (me included of course) when normal doesn't really exist. I was talking to a keen weather mate who has lived in my town since '74 and he said there has never been a normal here, it fluxuates a hell of a lot over the decades.

Don't entirely agree. There is a sense of normal otherwise we wouldn't be lamenting its loss. I mean it gets warmer in summer (YUCK YUCK lol) and cooler in winter (YAY YAY )
And with due respect to your extraordinary memory Mr TS the "good old days" become a more powerful force as you get older. And like it or not this does affect personal outlooks, especially when ***** has dominated your world (whichever relevant parts, work, hobby etc etc, ***** IS *****) for some time. So just as its not for me to judge the mood (and reasons for) of others so it is not for those to judge the mood and shoot it down into the mud, of others either.

Now to on topic - almost. Whatever has been affecting Vic so bad has also been affecting my area here in SA. There is a connection. Not all of coastal SA has done well, there is isolated pockets in all the surrounding "goodness".
Now it must be said that relative to the surrounding "desert" we always do well. But this is not relevant to the area itself. My annual totals while down have looked sufficient on paper. But this is not the loss. For me its the loss of heavy sustained rainfalls. This was incredibly and dramatically demonstrated in the recent system which gave me more runoff from just 10mm of rain that I have ever before received in one hit, even from 125mm in 3 days!
This is what is missing from my area and seems to be in the same timing as the problems in Vic (and elsewhere). Am not sure of the reasons, really am not, and to make it worse it seems to be an isolated pocket, my pocket by some irony, of the ranges I live in. Clearly for 20 odd years the current rain types was not the normal.
But dammit it is now and I do not like it, it gives me the *****s, it hurts me to see my creeks wither and slowly die, my dam with 20 year old fish dry up and kill the poor ba$tards, the springs stop..... etc.
That is why the good old days are for me the good old days and why I come across as I do sometimes, cynical and frustrated. Am sure this is the driving force behind others here as well. People are different in their response to events and must be allowed to be different and express it as so.
Goddam fried eggs and fritz with tomato sauce on toast and vegemite for breakfast is good for you

Snowmi, I too have been watching the amazing run of weather over NZ (Fortunately I am going there on holiday in July)

Taking TS post into account about sea temps, the only thing that seems to explain it is the south Tasman sea is warmer than normal, the bight is colder than normal. Although waters around NZ it self are much colder - probably due to the consistant colder weather

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta

Low pressure seems to be drawn NE over the Tasman which reinforces the block high back over SE Australia. Latest GFS seems to support this right through it's run. Watch how the current cutoff over WA slips SE, but when it gets to the Tasman it gets new life surging NE.

Well that my overly simplistic way of understanding it. It's important to understand why we are missing out so we can look for any signs of it changing back to wetter conditions. IOD is looking good, Southern Ocean below Australia not so good at the moment.

That sstA map is 2 months old btw.

Thanks ER - did not look at the date assume it was current.

Got this from BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDYOC054.gif

Anyone care to give a prediction?? Bight still looks cooler than normal, warm abnomilies in Tasman are quite far south but that might be all it takes. With the same temps far SW of WA perhaps this sets up a wave like pattern.

One would think the whole thing will move east and so changing the resultant weather patterns.

Try this as well:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.21.2009.gif

Those cold temps from SE Oz to NZ wont help things in early winter either. Highs will love that in the short term.

And from what I recall in other winters over the last ten to fifteen years, if you have some anomalously cold temps just below the Bight and anomalously warm temps below that, it tends to encourage cut-offs of note to form further south than Australia. What do others think?

I think later in winter has real potential though.

There are an awful lot of positive anomalies around the world in that sea surface link Blizz. One thing that concerns me a little is the consistency with which the Mediterranean, Black sea and Baltic are all completly in the strongly positive. I know they are all small sea's but why are they all well in the positive over all of them, just too consistent for my liking. Also looks like the Pacific off Peru is back in the positive so the El Nino must be back already, not that I think that is a bad thing for snow anyway. This La Nina we had has not been much use.

After about the 4th deluge on the north coast this year already I had to add up the rainfall for Dorrigo this year and for 12 month. The figures are;

2275mm so far this year.
3449mm for the 12 month ending today.

(The anual mean is around 1800mm I think, could not find it on BOM for some strange reason)

There is little doubt the 12 month total will still rise to well over 3500mm this month once this rain event finishes. I do not know exactly what is the wettest year in Dorrigo but vaugely remember the stats on the wall in the pub or the local shop. But I think the all time record was around the 3500mm mark. So this could yet be the wettest 12 month on record for Dorrigo.

I can't believe what I read in the Daily Telegraph weather report today. In the weatherwatch section one remark was made "But don't start worrying about another drought yet". Pardon me but have I missed something here?? I didn't even realise that the drought had broken. Don't you need rain to break a drought. I awoke this morning to a dust storm!. I just had a look at the models and there is no break in sight. Looks like we are heading for one of the driest periods yet. There is just no rain on the way.
Duane.

That paper is for Sydney people, I think. And if there's a rain storm and there's puddles, then for city people the drought is over.

Here, bores are drying up. The ground water hasn't been replenished in years.

Yes, its just beyond belief atm, almost Atacama type desert conditions in Canberra while the North Coast washes away under meters of rain. Dorrigo is already approaching 900mm for this week alone, while many in the south are barely 90mm for the year. Nothing like this happened in 1974 or any of those other years that comparisons are made to. End next week New Zealand is due for yet more extensive and near seaa level snow and will open its resorts on the first day with snow conditions that we could only dream about in August. Sydney might be wet but Warragamba will still barely budge next week as very little rain fell in the western half of the catchment.

What is equaly frustrating as the lack of rain is the abnormaly warm weather for this time of year now. So far this year has been near record warmest year ever, if these patterns keep up 2009 could end up being the warmest year since records began for the SE.

........ and absolutely dry as a wooden tit here too.

Here the Murrumbidgee is a trickle. I have never seen it this bad before.
Duane.