nah the BoM map was this mornings run wait for the new one issued later tonight. should upgrade for us out here in the east after taking into account the latest gfs run.

Perhaps ET but the 12z run of GFS only had very little falls over NW Vic overnight so in one way NED is right it doesn't rely to heavy on GFS when it does its outputs

12z run.. http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=aus&start=1&stop=8&gribdate=2008012912

The 18z version wasn't any better either

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=aus&start=1&stop=8&gribdate=2008012918

wow didnt even look at 18z, killer! i remember a similar run back in June before the 2nd ECL. also had 100-300mm over us and the illawarra and it came off. BoM looks like they're waiting to get a bit closer to the event putting a "chance" of showers for sydney next week but good to see consistency in the models especally gfs :bounce:

Yeah I'm actually suprised by that seen many instances the BOM take GFS into consideration (usually 30%) into their progged rainfall was suprised about this morning.

yeah thats correct, BoM hasn't got inputs from GFS which i find very surprising.

Either way, latest run (06z) looks even better,, still consistent which is encouraging :bounce:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Latest BOM rainfall map progged rainfall updated this evening once again looks nothing like GFS & even GASP doesn't have this either so you got to wonder where this is coming from has to be EC I guess and perhaps UK mabye JMA. Models combined once again has the heaviest rain over Northern Victoria it has actually expanded in size the 100-150mm and also the 50-100mm. Interesting times ahead.

guys I heve been following the BOM for 15 years or so 7 day forecast maybe 20 % . But thats good , compare to GFS , which i follow now too and is most unreliable . Man , 3 days ago Mildura supposed to get 300 mm , now 0 . Maybe they by luck get it right one day . No idea who is following who , but iam sure BOM has more resources then anyone else . One thing is sure , in February a major thing is gonna happen in Victoria , after all its time for it , it even could be too much rain in some places and not welcome at all 30 years amateur freak , and yes I cant spell

Latest map looks good but not good enough. would like to see a lot more progged than that across the inland. 50-100mm progged here, would be good if that came off..good chunk of our average if it did.

Thanks for that ER. Good for who though ER? Looks good enough for Victoria for a change After the massive heatwave of early Jan I think this is due. Southern Qld and Northern NSW had plenty few weeks ago I think now its Southern NSW and Vics turn this will also help the Murray river system now which hasn't got much yet through this La nina.

EDIT: Welcome to the forums Vlasta. I think this is due and so do alot of the Vics down here even BOM starting to talk things up on radio down here past couple of days. Also been reading how high the ants have been making their mounds ants don't lie everytime someone or few people have mentioned them doing this a rain event has happend so fingers crossed with this one.

Maybe iam too old for computers , but iam sure that my comp of a reasnable status , and fed with all information u can feed a computer about a future rain fall , would come with a completly diffrent resolt

i meant for inland QLD, NSW including the coast and VIC altogether in general.. it doesnt look that great. for a strong lanina so far its been a poor effort with many areas missing out, hope things change and soon. couple of ants and various other insects crawling all over our new kitchen, got plenty outside building mounds as well. must be tomorrows storms, hopefully a lot more

goodnes me John , never tho about ants until now , u r right . I had ants entering my house since i got here . Couldnt leave a drop of a bread anywhere . This year i forgot about it , and no ants . And there is a lot of food around right now . Ants come to houses to get moisture , and they know , they dont need any now , that just solved my problem , if we gonna get a disaster rain event , as iam sure we will , we can blame ants . Uh Oh this probably will be the sillest post ever

EC looks good, pushes an onshore trough/low down the NSW coast early next week which could give us some heavy onshore rain. bom's map starts to move some big totals down the coast too which might be because of this. interesting times ahead

Folks please read my posts i posted before . A bit confused . Can some one tell me what information is fed to GFS as i follow it now too , so far it was only BOM . As I see it now GFS "just joined the party " in predicting same precipitation for Victoria for next 7 days thx

wouldnt this be nice.. a low right off syd, widespread heavy rain across the state.. dream scenario

ER, that cell over the coast looks to be centered right over the top of this area. It would be interesting as we have been the gap in the major weather events this last twelve months.

That would certainly have the potential to give the rest of the Murray catchment a bit of a drink.

:cheers: Will

Wouldn't it just

NOGAPS is showing some big falls across NE NSW and SE QLD with falls also developing across inland and SE NSW and VIC...EC going for what looks like some very big totals with..perhaps even...a black nor'easter and some incredible uppers. GFS increasing falls every run...A very interesting couple of weeks coming up and the great news is that the potential rain is spread right across the SE of Aus :cheers: Detail is going to be pretty hard right now with a dynamic situation developing so getting close to that point of just watching the day to day charts and the action on the sat pics and radar to see what is coming together on the ground

EC had this scenario in its update last night and GFS and GASP has picked it up today. Looks good with heaps of models coming to sort of consensus but a couple more days of runs showing the same thing will be good.

Ec looks like dream stuff for Victoria. GASP is starting to follow it. NOGAPS also has a major low in a weeks time for us. Models are chopping and changing for next week on the surface with every run but one thing is for sure all agree that the uppers will destablise big time and become much colder. Just a matter of coming together on the surface when and where & how intense? Will it be 2 seperate events or 1? In time we will all find out these Questions. Very very interesting times ahead.