if the latest EC forecast come of there will be more flooding for inland parts of NSW again. the forecast is for TC olga to go into the gulf of carpenteria and intensify rapidly before making a southerly turn through inland Queensland the NSW.

It would be nice to get a big feed of water into those inland NSW rivers again.

So far for Canberra, total rainfall for 2010: 1.8mm.

I see why you guys need rain ant! 1.8mm thats shocking, It feels weird living in the desert and having 151.2mm so far in 2010
and you can't even crack 2mm. I have been looking at the models and something may come down to you over the weekend fingers crossed!
Good luck!
DS

It's depressing. Every time you use some water, you are thinking it hasn't been replenished in years. What if that low level of rainfall is the new norm? What is everyone going to drink?!

I shouldn't worry too much. We have visitors from Japan arriving on Wednesday staying for a week. I'm sure there will be widespread rain for the duration of their visit as I try and show them around. We were thinking of going to the Blue Mountains one day so there should be good soaking rain and low cloud.

At the Gold Coast we have gone thru 16 days since we had showers/rain. Does anyone know the record of consecutive days without recording rain on the Gold Coast area??

3 weeks ago I suggested in this thread that we might get a rain event in conjunction with the MJO which appeared to be running to a (roughly) 45-day cycle. It seems the marriage of Olga and Neville, though terminated rather abruptly, couldn't wait for climate cycles. However in the last tropical climate outlook the MJO was expected to reactivate this coming week.

Looking at the cycle of the SOI I am of the view that there will be a return to more widespread rainfall in February (apart from the rain that is expected to increase in western NSW later this week). I think that rain will be the first in a series.

I have no other real 'scientific basis' for this, but just the fact that we've had a dry run of several weeks (depending on where) and we are due for a change in the pattern.

SE NSW has had a dry run of more than several weeks. Any month we hit "average" rainfall has become something to comment on.

I wouldn't be too fixated on averages Ant. At best they are only a rough indicator of what to expect.

Purely hypothetical: next year might be the start of a 10 year long wet cycle in which nearly every month is above average in rainfall. Yet looking at the 20 year period, we achieved 'average' conditions despite rarely achieving an average year.

It is misleading, particuarly in a highly variable and cyclical climate such as Australia's, to soley use averages as a benchmark.

Agree BW.
The locals around here sort of go a bit bug eyed when I tell them that to make up the deficit in our long term 100 year rainfall records of 400 mm annual average rainfall, the annual rainfall will need to exceed that 400 mm average by at least 45 mms a year for the next 20 years to bring the average back up to where it was before the drought set in which was from 1997 on.

Sometime in the not very distant future it is going to get bloody wet around here and I suspect right across SE Australia.

When I don't know but it will happen and perhaps soon as the great decades long cycles of the Pacific, North Atlantic, Southern Ocean and even the Indian Ocean according to Bob Tisdale on his Climate Observations blog, have all switched over into a new global cycle in the last couple of years.

Yeah averages are rather dare I say it useless as far as rainfall goes in Australia. We have months where the rain has not come until the last couple of days of the months or just the opposite. Rain coming in the first day of a month where the previous month is dry and then rain during the month making it "wet". The rainfall here is just not consistent enough to consider avergaes over such a short time span. Growing season and non growing season would be more appropriate but however even this is not really that useful either. Really every year must be looked at not by just the numbers but also the timing and intensity of rainfall. All of these can have big effects on how useful the rain is to the soil and plants.

Adon, I agree with the timing and intensity part of your post. Out here in the Centre summer rains are far more important then big winter rains. Graziers just love summer rains, you get that big boost of grass. I also found studing bush budgies Big rains falling during October or November and March they will breed in plague proportions they prefer temps at those times of the year.
When that last drop of rain falls for a big wet event we are straight back into drought, While it may be green and water about we are on borowed time!

Yeah DS I made sure I said "growing season" as it is different everywhere and even in places that get rain more often still have a season where most of the growth will occur. Thing is that everybody has a different idea of drought but in a way you are correct as a drought always starts as the last drop of rain hit the ground. If your soils could hold moisture like ours you would benefit from rains at any time. We are winter dominant growth so rain in the cooler months is what we are after.

EC is showing a low forming in northern SA on Monday and heading down to western NSW on Wednesday.



There is also a nice looking upper low centered over Adelaide.

Now both EC and GFS are showing a pretty solid low of tropical origin coming down into W NSW around the 2-3 March. Looks promising for another good drop if it comes off.

Geez i hope that comes off! Will this mean another dose of extreme humidity tho?

Looks to me like this system has pretty much died off as far as central or southern NSW is concerned. Models slowly going off the idea the last few runs now. Temps look like staying comfortable too, not too hot just pleasant and warm. Almost the first signs of an autumn dry pattern.

The latest EC suggests the low going through western NSW again, after moving it further north.

Latest GFS mid next week.....