Maybe they've just left it open to interpretation. The public always complains about the BoM getting it wrong, so maybe they're letting everyone else have a go!!

Dave

Cloudmaster, heres your chance mate!!!! :p

lol :rolleyes: you make me laugh sempfy.Weathernut

IDN10060
NORTH EAST DISTRICTS FORECAST
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 5:15am on Friday the 30th of August 2002
For the period through to Monday

IDN1006001
NORTHERN RIVERS
Friday
Isolated inland fog patches. Cloud increasing. Isolated afternoon showers or
thunderstorm. Warm.
Light to moderate northeast to northwest winds.

Saturday
Fine. Mild to warm. Mainly sunny. Light to moderate northwest to northeast
winds.

Sunday
Isolated showers developing. Mild to warm. Northwest winds tending west to
southwest later.

Monday
Fine. Warm. Light and variable winds.

Lismore for Friday
Afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Warm. Cloudy periods. Light to moderate
northeast to northwest winds.
Max:24

Lismore for Saturday
Fine. Warm. Light to moderate northeast to northwest winds.

It seems that we now know what's going to happen on Monday

Fine and warm sounds nice to me!!

Dave

Just a small spelling error on the VIC aviation forecast. Nothing really to write home about, just thought I'd share it with everyone.
AMD OVERVIEW:
ISOLATED TUNDERSTORMS SEA SE OF KING ISLAND/MALLACOOTA UNTIL 14Z AND
W OF WARRNAMBOOL/SWAN HILL AFTER 14Z.

TUNDERSTORMS SEA SE ???? i think the bom are drinking the beer at the pub again .Weathernut

This is what the bom have forecasted for Wednesday for the South west slopes: Mostly fine. Isolated thunderstorms Cool to mild. South to southwest winds. Bom is it going to be Mostly fine or isolated thunderstorms?

umm that sounds like a reasonable forecast doesnt it?
I mean, mostly fine does mean there is the slight chance of precipitation, hence the "isolated" thunderstorms possible.

Anyone?

It is a reasonable forecast in my opinion, it just means it will be mostly fine throughout the region however there will be the odd storm about.

I can see how things get ambigious occasionally though. Personally I believe that the Bureau should have a list of terms such as:

Isolated
Few
Scattered
Occasional
Widespread

(I *think* that that is the order of increasing occurence of whatever weather is being talked about), and also define fine, mostly fine, risk of, chance of etc...some people think 'risk' is higher others think 'chance' is higher and others say that they both mean the same thing. If there was a definition of approximate definition of what all of these mean then I think it'd avoid a lot of confusion, especially in the media!

AC

I use'probability terms' in this order:-
Risk
Isolated
Scattered
Widespread
I do use 'local' occasionally :rolleyes: :rolleyes: but I'm not sure where you'd fit it into a list

Jane

Hi Jane
I think "local" should be removed as a description. To me, local can only describe something that has "gaps" and those gaps can be anywhere from "isolated" to "widespread"
So since all of the other descriptions imply a magnitude of probability less than 100%(which is described simply as "rain" or "storms" etc) then the word "local" just doesn't belong in the group and in fact, whenever anything happens it is local, provided you stay in one spot, and if you move then it becomes a matter of probability, covered by all the other terms in the group.
So I'd call it a redundant term... Personally I'd scrap it!

Anthony, I thought not defining the terms was the effective way of not having people always on your back about the accuracy of a forecast. A little ambiguity goes a long way

Something that happens often with Sydney forecasts is that the 3 region surrounding Sydney (Central Tablelands, Hunter, Illawarra) will have forecast for storms, but Sydney won't, i always wonder why that is, take this Tuesday, all 3 regions have Rain, isolated thunderstorms, local moderate falls, Sydney has rain periods only, is it because they would like to wait as long as possible to make a bolder forecast for a large city? It's fine when conditions favour storms on the ranges only, but this setup is different

Hi all,

I use probability in the following order:

Slight risk
Risk or chance the chance of
Chance
Isolated
Few
Scattered
Widespread

There was a small discussion on where the term "occasional" came into that when the Bureau used it on the list. I once saw a Perth forecast recently that said "Scattered showers increasing to occasional in the afternoon." But when you say "occasional" I would have thought a few showers, just not very often.

But as I said, the terms are subjective. Personally I believe there should be a standard adopted, throughout the Bureau and all of the private met companies (although it would seem logical for the Bureau to lead the way given they issue most of the forecasts!)

AC

I agree Anthony, that there should be a standard set, probably by the Bom. For example, at the top of each text forecast you could have a simple key with words and a brief explanation. It would take a while to catch on but surely over time, it would become well absorbed?

Check the forecast for Hobart out:

Forecast for Wednesday : Showers. Windy. Snow later.
Min 08
Max 16

I found this amusing but for those that don't know Hobart very well, planning to visit, and checking the Wednesday forecast to see what conditions might be the go on arrival, this forecast may come as a bit of a shock!

The explanation is simple. Traditionally, the Hobart BoM will include a small addition to the Hobart forecast in winter when Mt Wellington is expected to get snow. It highlights the importance Mt Wellington has for the local population as although the Mt is not part of Hobart, it is a significant part of the Hobart backdrop, and close enough for many families to take the quick drive up there to spend the afternoon.
Usually, when snow is expected up there, the forecast will have an addition like "Mountain Snow" but in this case they appear to have forgotten the Mt bit, which for the unaware may appear like a forecast of "snow" for Hobart

Then again, maybe it's not a mistake

Caught this one in the Canberra situation this afternoon...
A nice touch considering the forecast for the local area was 'Blue skies with a little high cloud'.

That's a classic - looks like we are resorting to man-made weather now.

Very true too. Lots of contrial around this afternoon, Canberra BoM have the best forecasts, the most informative of all the forecasts in AU.

Simon

I remeber a Certain Edwin Maher having forecasted Shattered Showers for Melbourne. I thought that was rather funny