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#43682 - 13/04/2008 18:58 Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Ok, hopefully this will resolve the misunderstanding and confusion in the other thread smile

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#43683 - 13/04/2008 21:04 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
BOM99 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
Problem is the weather boundaries do not follow state boundaries

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#43684 - 13/04/2008 22:29 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
This thread is a bit pointless. The other thread works fine, considering most people who regularly post in it are from south of Adelaide and Sydney which is definately SE Australia. In fact I'd consider SE Australia the area SE of a line between Adelaide and Brisbane. The problem is different weather patterns suit different regions and tolerance is needed. Though the problems only come from one Victorian whos got a bee in their bonnet. :rolleyes: It's certainly not the kind of behaviour I expected from this person.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#43685 - 13/04/2008 23:32 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I think its a good idea if they dont consider sydney and E NSW as being "SE Aust". also because we benefit from different systems than the people down south do.. most of the time anyway.

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#43686 - 14/04/2008 00:40 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Luke_A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/09/2006
Posts: 775
Loc: Hazelbrook, blue mountains 35k...
yeh I like the idea of this thread, this covers SE Queensland/ NE NSW unlike the other one. Alot of the systems which bring rain to central NSW come from the NE.

The other thread is great for cold fronts, cold centred lows and snow and stuff but this thread will be different from the other one.

for instance this one will cover eastern troughs, ECL's and Hybrids and maybe Ex Tropical cyclones.

There is alot of regualar posters in Qld, this threads great for them as the other one doesn't really cover that area.

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#43687 - 14/04/2008 07:18 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
"There is alot of regualar posters in Qld, this threads great for them as the other one doesn't really cover that area."


Yep, totally agree.

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#43688 - 14/04/2008 08:03 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1256
Loc: toowoomba
I can't understand the aggro on this topic,if one place happens to get more rain than somewhere else so be it.We should be happy that the whole country is not in a severe drought.

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#43689 - 14/04/2008 11:35 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I love the idea of this thread. As has been said, we don't even have an outlook thread, just an obs thread, and we use that...Should be fun hearing from both sides of the border! On topic, EC is still going for an upper low only now further north over QLD, and eventually interracting with what looks to be a weak low moving down from the tropics, and intensifying it heaps. Only problem is, it's a tad too far east for my liking. EC has been crap for us though this past season. Something to keep an eye on hopefully, GFS isn't going for anything major though.

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#43690 - 14/04/2008 12:10 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Matt Pearce Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/01/2001
Posts: 4402
Loc: Kariong, NSW
Yeah good idea for the thread IMO as well. The type of systems that produce rain across SA and VIC are vastly different from the type of systems that produce rain across eastern NSW and QLD! Looks good for this pattern of cold, cloudy days with light showers to continue into the foreseeable future along the NSW coast. The highs are still sitting a long way south, so all we need is some solid upper level support and we'll be in business for some good rainfall. About time we entered a more typical autumn pattern. Those westerlies that we toyed with a couple of weeks back were most disturbing.

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#43691 - 14/04/2008 18:45 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Yeah, hope your right Matt and we continue entering the more typical autumn pattern with the highs further south and some good upper support. For now I can say is EC still looks fantastic for much of E NSW (mainly north of the state) and parts of the SE QLD coast with the ridge + broad upper low putting us in a prime position but unfortunately even these systems can be hit and miss, certainly keeping an eye out on the next couple of weeks.

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#43692 - 14/04/2008 21:04 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
TOM1111 Offline
Member

Registered: 27/10/2004
Posts: 2789
Loc: medowie near williamtown-octob...
yeah i got scared when we had that week of westerlies as it was just so dry and the nights were freezing.

i thought it was going to be a long cool dry winter but things have changed

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#43693 - 14/04/2008 22:06 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Sean.A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/01/2008
Posts: 92
Loc: Browns Plains, SEQ
GFS is looking good for SEQ, Sunshine Coast and NE NSW on their 06z run (sorry if the image is too big)



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#43694 - 14/04/2008 22:10 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
yeah it actually develops a nice upper low over SE inland QLD during Saturday, and unlike with this last upper trough/low, it has a slightly better surface setup with more of a SE/ESE flow rather than the SSE'ly that we had last week. Bit far out to tell exactly what will happen though, the 06Z and 18Z runs have been known to be more unreliable than the 00Z and 12Z runs. Still, EC is also going for an upper low over QLD next weekend, something to keep an eye on for sure.

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#43695 - 14/04/2008 22:15 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
so it appears GFS has fallen into line with EC. Instead of speculating im waiting for signs and ingredients to start appearing on the sat pics/charts that may be responsible for the formation of such a system before I get too excited. atm theres an upper trough over SE QLD, whether thats the same one the models are onto i dont know. time will tell

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#43696 - 16/04/2008 18:57 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
GFS keeps on increasing its totals along the coast for the next 180 hours...and EC now has some delicious East Coast troughing combined with greta uppers towards the end of its run smile

Too far out for much detail but all looking good for increasing chances of a decent rain event in E/NE NSW and perhaps even making it into SE QLD smile

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#43697 - 16/04/2008 23:44 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
When I Pour, I Reign Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/05/2007
Posts: 251
Loc: Shanghai, China
If I ate a biscuit everytime that GFS said there was gunna be 150mm of rain in SE Qld I would weigh 400kgs...which i don't. smile

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#43698 - 17/04/2008 05:38 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5187
Loc: Diamond Valley
The potential for a major event for SEQ in particular just keeps getting better. The 12Z GFS is increasing totals for the SE corner to upwards of 250mm in places. EC is on board with this as well with a beautiful cut-off upper low positioned right over SEQ for a couple of days (23rd & 24th next week). The surface situation is complementing this set up with a nice moist NE flow into the scene of the crime. It's been consistent with this for the past two runs, so it looks very promising.

Edit: I think it's time to start a thread on this event in the Briefing Room. Here is the latest BoM forecast for Brisbane for the coming week:

Friday A shower or two Min 17 Max 25
Saturday A few showers Min 17 Max 25
Sunday A few showers Min 17 Max 25
Monday Showers increasing Min 17 Max 24
Tuesday Showery Min 17 Max 23
Wednesday Showers decreasing Min 17 Max 23

And here is an extrat from the latest extended outlook:

Quote:
Over the interior conditions will continue fine though some showers may develop over the south-east and southern interior during the weekend as an upper pool of cold air destabilizes conditions in the area. This activity will then increase on Monday as an upper trough moves into the area and destabilize conditions. This trough will then destabilize conditions over the south-east on Tuesday with thickening cloud and increasing showers.
With the BoM this confident this far out, it's definitely more than idle speculation. smile
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#43699 - 17/04/2008 06:02 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5187
Loc: Diamond Valley
I have now started a discussion on this event in the Briefing Room:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=17&t=000403
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#43700 - 17/04/2008 07:28 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
We can only hope, hope and hope its not just another teaser. dont like the ridging further down the coast but if that upper trough is good enough and in the right position it could be enough to break the pattern down and allow some juicy E/NE'ers to become established and we all know what they can do especially with increasing SSTs off the coast smile

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#43701 - 17/04/2008 10:12 Re: Looking towards the next significant rainfall event for eastern Australia (NSW/QLD)
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6621
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS has really pumped up the rainfall totals but moreso (and not surprisingly) for the NE NSW Coast. We'll see what happens.

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