Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#443179 - 08/07/2002 12:03 3 month drought statement
David Offline
Member

Registered: 10/11/2001
Posts: 3002
Loc: Melbournes SE
Looking quite severe now with large amouts of Australia in 3 month deficiencies while drought has almost gone all together in Victoria and Tasmania due to good falls of rain lately it has increased in every other state and become very severe in parts. frown http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?
page=map&variable=drought&period=3month&area=aus

you can also look at other charts from the bom here
David cool

Top
#443180 - 08/07/2002 19:10 Re: 3 month drought statement
Tracey Malmborg Offline
TWC Meteorologist


Registered: 28/02/2001
Posts: 23
Loc: Sydney
Interesting to note from the June rainfall deciles that VIC looked pretty close to average and TAS well above average rainfall-wise, thanks to a couple of reasonable fronts. BUT NSW and western QLD, NT, SA and southwest WA really lucked out. Some parts of western NSW and southern WA reported the lowest June rainfall on record.
The El Nino is really shaping up if you look at these June rainfall deciles. It'll be an interesting few months.

Top
#443181 - 08/07/2002 19:35 Re: 3 month drought statement
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
Hi thunderbird,

In Melbourne we still got below average rain for June; 27mm compared to 42mm average, and for the year so far we have only had 230.6mm compared with the average to the end of June of 299.4mm so it shows that Melbourne is still in drought for the period starting end of October 1996 and that even though we have gone through La Nina, our water catchments are in a worse situation in terms of rainfall anomalies than some areas in NSW, and it shows that even though areas in NSW have gone through dry periods (December-January 2001-2002 NSW) ,after those dry months the rain has come back the next month with something like 400mm in Sydney and while in NSW the state gets rain to end a drought or period of below average rain, we in Victoria haven't had the rain after the El Nino of 97-98 to break the drought, even after going through La Nina.

Rainlover laugh

Top
#443182 - 09/07/2002 13:04 Re: 3 month drought statement
sunshinecoastfire Offline
Member

Registered: 11/11/2001
Posts: 790
Loc: sunshinecoast
hey rainlover a 60mm defict over 6 months is not a drought!!!!!
Also the amount of water in a dam doesn't mean your in some longterm drought.

Top
#443183 - 09/07/2002 13:37 Re: 3 month drought statement
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
for 6 years we have a rainfall anomaly

And the BoM even recognise that we are in a drought

Quote:
BTW as for rainfall deficienes, since the "dry" established in November 1996 Melbourne CBD has recieved 3091mm. The average for this period is 3717mm, so we have had ~5 1/2 years where we have averaged ~83% of average. Over the past ~3 years (see http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/ra...onth&area=seaus ) we have average about 90% of normal (though the catchments east of the city have done worse). My instinct is that the dry has felt more serious than the figure suggest because,
1) we had a run of very hot summers which dried things out
2) our rainfall in recent years seems to have come in big hits with extended fine spells (some that come to mind are, December 99, March 01, April 01 etc.)
3) We have seen very poor winter rainfall.
4) Wetter months have rarely occured in sequence.
So that proves that we are technically still in drought for the 5 and a half year period starting at the end of October 1996.

To prove that we are in drought, one of our water catchments; O'Shannassy has only had 5696mm from the start of 1997 to the end of 2001 compared with the average of 7145mm for that time. that is a rainfall anomaly of around 1200mm. Melbournes rainfall anomaly is over 500mm so we would need double our average yearly rain in one year to break the drought.

Melbourne hasn't even recorded average yearly rain since 1996.

Rainlover laugh

Top
#443184 - 10/07/2002 02:16 Re: 3 month drought statement
Adiabatic Offline
Member

Registered: 01/09/2001
Posts: 14190
Loc: Knoxfield 96m: 120.2mm
We had an average year I think it was 2000 rainfall wise. I recorded average rainfall here of about ~850mm and the year before that ~900mm, I will get the figures when my brain is functioning properly smile

Karl smile

Top
#443185 - 10/07/2002 06:28 Re: 3 month drought statement
TrenthamStormchasers Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 15/04/2001
Posts: 6258
Loc: Trentham 705m
The last 4 years for me have seen:
1998 812mm
1999 878mm
2000 908mm
2001 805mm

Ther average for my area is somewhere between 902 (Mitcham) and 817 (Burwood East) so I'm pretty well running near to average.

Jane
Bayswater (western end)

Top
#443186 - 10/07/2002 10:37 Re: 3 month drought statement
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
Well for the city anyway and the catchments it has been below normal, the only near normal year was 2000.

Jane, the city recorded about 585mm compared to your 812mm so it shows how much the rainshadow effect stops rain.

Rainlover laugh

Top
#443187 - 10/07/2002 11:49 Re: 3 month drought statement
David Offline
Member

Registered: 10/11/2001
Posts: 3002
Loc: Melbournes SE
It amazing how the rainshadow affect works like in May this year I recored 93mm (all around that i have to check my records) while Melbourne recorded 30mm or something amazing seeing I live 34km away or something like that.

David cool

Top
#443188 - 10/07/2002 23:44 Re: 3 month drought statement
Adiabatic Offline
Member

Registered: 01/09/2001
Posts: 14190
Loc: Knoxfield 96m: 120.2mm
I am around the same in terms of rainfall accumulations over a 12 month period, being about 15km away from Jane. So it been OK for me too the past 4 years.

1998: 829mm
1999: 888.4mm
2000: 946.2mm that was a good year smile
2001: 803mm

I think we had a lot of rainfall around New Years in Melbourne, I was in NSW at the time so it was not a bad year 2001.

Karl smile

Top
#443189 - 12/07/2002 13:58 Re: 3 month drought statement
sunshinecoastfire Offline
Member

Registered: 11/11/2001
Posts: 790
Loc: sunshinecoast
Quote:
BTW as for rainfall deficienes, since the "dry" established in November 1996 Melbourne CBD has recieved 3091mm.
Well if you take a long enough period you can claim any rainfall deficieny.
Quote:
we have average about 90% of normal
Well I would be happy if you got 90% of you average rainfall in 3 years. I mean you would be lucky to have one year were you have average rainfall.
Quote:
My instinct is that the dry has felt more serious than the figure suggest because,
1) we had a run of very hot summers which dried things out
The way last summer you were complaining that summer was cold and hasn't come???
Quote:
2) our rainfall in recent years seems to have come in big hits with extended fine spells
thats what generally happens with rain.

You may have lower water storage from a bit below average rainfall. But I wouldn't say its a drought.

Top
#443190 - 20/07/2002 18:02 Re: 3 month drought statement
Craig Arthur Offline
Wind hazard researcher

Registered: 08/05/2001
Posts: 3549
Loc: 149.152009°E 35.187056°...
I must say, I haven't heard any official drought statement for Victoria (nor can I find one about the current season). Whereas NSW has near to 2/3rds drought-declared, and QLD is similar. Sure, rain has been below average for the past 5 years, but there has been rain. I don't know the full story behind drought declarations (people such as Blair Trewin or David Jones are vastly more qualified to speak about this), but I doubt simply having below-average rainfall classifies a region as droughted. I would also say Sydney is not representative of all of NSW in terms of rainfall.

Top
#443191 - 20/07/2002 18:20 Re: 3 month drought statement
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
I'm not going to go on with this blah blah, but IMO it is a drought, you can all have your opinions.

Rainlover laugh

Top
#443192 - 20/07/2002 18:32 Re: 3 month drought statement
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
BTW crashed, why are you hiding from the recent visitors list?

Rainlover laugh

Top
#443193 - 20/07/2002 19:03 Re: 3 month drought statement
Matt Pearce Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/01/2001
Posts: 4437
Loc: Kariong, NSW
Hi Rainlover

I think Crashed was referring to the fact that you had claimed that the BoM had called it a drought and we couldn't find any evidence of this on their site.

BTW - he's not on the recent visitors list cos he's not here anymore...he left work about an hour ago!

Matt cool

Top
#443194 - 20/07/2002 19:21 Re: 3 month drought statement
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
But when he posts I clicked on his profile and it said he wasn't a recent visitor. confused

I e-mailed the BoM some time ago and they said that there was a drought in Victoria and they said that it wasn't on the drought statement because the long term rain anomalies wouldn't be shown, instead they showed the drought areas for the short term.

Rainlover laugh

Top
#443195 - 20/07/2002 19:38 Re: 3 month drought statement
Craig Arthur Offline
Wind hazard researcher

Registered: 08/05/2001
Posts: 3549
Loc: 149.152009°E 35.187056°...
As Matt said, I searched the BoM site and couldn't find any statement regarding drought in Victoria. Nor is there any statement on the Department of Natural Resources and Environment website. Nor does a search of The Age archives reveal any reports of drought in Victoria.

Now, this is my opinion - long term rainfall deficiences are not the be all and end all of drought. There are other factors such as the timing of the rainfall deficiency.

However, and this is not based on opinion, it is based on the fact I am unable to find any supporting statements from government ogranisations. Regions around Melbourne aren't in drought. There have not been any official statements like those made last week in NSW. There are a few reports on the possibility of water restrictions in the near future for Melbourne. I do know that that threat has been hanging over Melbourne for some time. Having said that, it is quite likely that regions in northwest Victoria are in drought. I am loathe to say that they definately are in drought as there has been no official statement from either the BoM or Dept of NRE.

[PS, I'm listed as on of the "guests" in teh recent visitors list]

Top
#443196 - 20/07/2002 21:06 Re: 3 month drought statement
jeremy Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 30/07/2001
Posts: 87
Loc: west oz
My annual rainfall is normally 350mm of which most falls in the winter months.To date i have had 101mm so if you want to talk droughts just think that there are even worse people than me.60mm below average in my mind is not drought wink

Top
#443197 - 20/07/2002 21:32 Re: 3 month drought statement
sunshinecoastfire Offline
Member

Registered: 11/11/2001
Posts: 790
Loc: sunshinecoast
Hey Rainlover this is a story about a real drought. Not some 14yr old boy pretend drought
source Courier Mail 20/7/02
Quote:
Drought tightens dusty grip
Phil Bartsch, Gold Coast bureau
20jul02
SOUTHEAST Queensland water supplies are drying up with some regions only a few parched months from being in the grip of their worst drought on record.
Far from singing with hopes of any significant rain, the latest long-range forecast warns there is no end to the dry spell in sight over the coming months.

For the Brisbane area still with enough water in its dams to last six years without another drop falling it is of little concern.

But several nearby regional centres are bone-dry or bracing for the worst.

Two dams vital for irrigation in the Lockyer Valley and Gatton areas the Atkinson Dam (5 per cent) and Bill Gunn Dam (4 per cent) are so low they effectively have no useable water remaining.

The so-called "dead water" is located below the water supply valves of the dams.

Lake Clarendon in the central Lockyer Valley is empty.

"All you can basically see out there is a puddle on the ground," said SunWater spokesman Rob Keogh.

"It can't get any worse. The question now is how long is it going to stay that way."

Moogerah Dam, near Boonah, is facing the same plight.

Its level is dropping rapidly and now holds about 4 per cent of its capacity with only just over half the water deemed "useable storage".

In March, the dam was closed to waterskiers due to its dangerously low water levels.

Without further rain, it is estimated the water in Moogerah Dam will only last the nearby town of Boonah until June next year.

On the Gold Coast, the Hinze Dam is down to 48 per cent capacity and falling by 165 million litres a day despite water restrictions being enforced since May.

The nation's fastest growing city is experiencing its worst drought for 60 years.

"It's only about four or five months away from being our worst drought on record," said Gold Coast Water director Shaun Cox.

Although there is enough water in Hinze Dam to last until Christmas 2003, the city already is receiving three times more water 15 million litres a day from Brisbane's Wivenhoe Dam, costing an extra $2000 a day.

Negotiations are under way with Brisbane and southeast Queensland water authorities to boost the city's reserves of water by another 10 million litres in the near future and up to 50 million litres in the long term.

A total ban on sprinklers was imposed two months ago and it is estimated that without significant rain by the end of the year the dam will fall to 25 per cent of its 160 billion litre capacity.

"If we don't have any rain by January we will have to impose another level of restrictions," Mr Cox said.

That would involve measures for a planned 50 per cent reduction in consumption.

The three-month seasonal outlook for Queensland released this week by the National Climate Centre predicts below-average rainfall across most of the state until at least October. It states the latest seasonal rainfall odds show "moderate to large swings towards drier than average conditions".

"The chances that total August to October rainfall will be below the long-term median are over 60 per cent across nearly all of Queensland, except for the southeast," it forecasts.

According to National Climate Centre meteorologist Robert Fawcett the outlook for southeast Queensland was "neither good news or bad news". "It's more a case of not knowing," he said.

"For most of Queensland we have a signal, the climate is telling us something, but in the southeast corner it's not really telling us anything."

Nevertheless, the centre's latest outlook warns that the El Nino weather pattern has tightened its grip across most of the country.

"There has been continued consolidation of most El Nino indicators," the outlook states.

"It's now very likely that the El Nino pattern will continue for the remainder of the year thereby increasing the risk of below-average falls in the east and north of the country."

Mr Fawcett said the coastal region stretching from the Queensland-NSW border north to Gympie had experienced a 30 per cent drop in average rainfall over the past two years.

"It's particularly low by historical standards," Mr Fawcett said. "It's not the worst the area has seen in the last 100 years but it may not be too far away from being the worst."

Top
#443198 - 21/07/2002 11:32 Re: 3 month drought statement
David Offline
Member

Registered: 10/11/2001
Posts: 3002
Loc: Melbournes SE
You guys have got it bad. Im doing alright here I had above avarage rain in May and June while Melbourne missed out. My avarage is higher then Melbournes.

David cool

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >


Who's Online
15 registered (Rainbow Spirit, Snapper22lb, cold@28, mithrandir, Weary, bundybear, Dr Philosophy, wet sky, Farra, kizz, GringosRain, Birdie, Weathergrrl, 2 invisible), 101 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Dale Small, Michael Bath, Ronfishes
Forum Stats
29890 Members
32 Forums
24117 Topics
1521815 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image