Topic Options
#444049 - 04/12/2002 14:19 Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Brett Dutschke Offline
TWC Meteorologist


Registered: 08/03/2001
Posts: 29
Loc: NSW
Models indicate moisture over the tropical north of WA will be dragged south by a deepening west coast trough. A cold front should drag this moisture with a cloudband across SA to southeastern Australia. The models do not go for much rain in southern WA and SA, but produce reasonable rain over VIC and eastern NSW on Monday and Tuesday. A moisture build up over eastern QLD looks like meeting with a torugh connected with this system and shows good potential for rain over southeast QLD Monday and Tuesday.

Top
#444050 - 05/12/2002 18:10 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Tracey Malmborg Offline
TWC Meteorologist


Registered: 28/02/2001
Posts: 23
Loc: Sydney
The models are still looking promising for some rain with a trough and cold front crossing the southeast early next week. Rain looks most likely across VIC on Sunday/Monday, and eastern NSW and southeast QLD on Monday/Tuesday. At this stage falls only look to be fairly light (up to 10mm or so). But we'll keep you posted!

Top
#444051 - 05/12/2002 20:10 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
:cheers: Brett and Tracey

Rain over Eastern NSW (Sydney) is much needed, as the bush fires over here are terrible as maybe you've seen on the news frown . Hopefully more than 10mm of rain will fall in these parts, but models arn't looking promising for more than this frown

Keep us posted smile

Cloudmaster :cheers:

Top
#444052 - 09/12/2002 18:15 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Brett Dutschke Offline
TWC Meteorologist


Registered: 08/03/2001
Posts: 29
Loc: NSW
Looking good for rain over Sydney and Katoomba Monday night and Tuesday which will help fire fighting. Good chance of fire extinguishing rain further north of Sydney (Hunter and and north) too on Tuesday. An upper trough will join a weak inland trough Tuesday and will be aided by southeasterly winds and an increase in moisture to cause this rain.

Top
#444053 - 10/12/2002 09:29 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
W W Offline
Member

Registered: 09/01/2002
Posts: 1227
Loc: Cobar 31.50S, 145.83E, 243m ...
Still nothing out here frown
81 days sincw we had our last rainfall

:cheers: Heather

Top
#444054 - 10/12/2002 09:39 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
mcg Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 06/11/2002
Posts: 213
Loc: Hunter Valley
Beautiful rain falling here near Singleton :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

Top
#444055 - 10/12/2002 12:01 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
W W Offline
Member

Registered: 09/01/2002
Posts: 1227
Loc: Cobar 31.50S, 145.83E, 243m ...
Good for you mcg
Hope it buckets down for you
:cheers: Heather

Top
#444056 - 10/12/2002 21:52 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Goody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2002
Posts: 734
Loc: Wagga District ...Where Crows ...
Hi Brett Tracy & All,

Well done B & T spot one forecasting !!! laugh

Just home from Property Protection Firefighting Activities at the Nowra region ... began raining there last night at 2230 hrs & was continueing untill departure at lunchtime today.
Rain area tailed off over the escarpement gradually inland as far as my home which was about the end of the incursion... 2mm here
Regards , with :cheers:

D & D I am trying to will something decent for U

Top
#444057 - 11/12/2002 01:34 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Fine Elsewhere Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/09/2002
Posts: 1873
Loc: Albany.W.A.
Hi All, Good to see u safely back on the farm Goody - sorry the rain did'nt follow u home! Good rain for Mcg - hope it does something helpful.
Whats the position over there now?? Remembering that we have plenty of water & good dry feed, we don't really want any significant rain until Mar or April - then a good break would most likely be sustained. Harvest is now in full swing in the Lower Great Sth, getting towards finished further north - a lot finished out east, cos there wasn't much to harvest in some places.
Am i right in thinking that for most of u, any run-off rain would be good to replentish low water supplies, & i guess theres no/ or not much feed to be spoilt anyway? If u got a big rain now would u expect it likely to get enough rain to carry right thru from now? I'm probably wrong, but it seems to me that there has been an increasing amount of moisture becoming evident more often in the systems that have developed over the last few weeks - just need one system to really fire up!
:wave: FE

Top
#444058 - 11/12/2002 09:37 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
mcg Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 06/11/2002
Posts: 213
Loc: Hunter Valley
Hi Heather, FE, Goody and all.
Yes it is still raining we have had 3 inches so far (75mm) and it is still raining. Wish i could send some to you Heather. We were burnt out at our lease last week and three days ago we were burnt out here at home. This rain will spring all that burnt area back to life.FE.. The dry feed that is left standing will unfortunately disintegrate into dust (mulsh) with the water on it but we will just feed the cattle for a bit longer until we can get some new growth established and at a stage where we can let the cattle on to it without damaging the plants. Now that we have some moisture in the soil we will spread some fertiliser ( the type of fertiliser you use depends on what your soil requirements are) or should i say we will spread as much as we can afford for now. This will assist in the new growth and make the new growth plants more nutritious for the cattle. Not only does fertilising help the plants but it also make the cattle do a lot better for longer. Hope i am not raving...sorry...you probably know all this FE.
I just hope that you will all get the rain you desperatley need. Heather how are you sustaining your stock?
Goody you are a 'goody' putting in the effort to go and fight fires. We have needed people like you so often lately....can't thank you all enough. It is such an amzing amount of co-ordination and work that goes into fighting these fires. I must admitt that in the past we have just paid our annual dues to the local brigade and left it to them, our son who is now 16 has decided to join up so it has obviously impressed on him and mt husband is going to rejoin...good on you guys you do a great job.
I have gone on enough for now.....look forward to hearing from you all soon :wave:

Top
#444059 - 11/12/2002 11:43 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
W W Offline
Member

Registered: 09/01/2002
Posts: 1227
Loc: Cobar 31.50S, 145.83E, 243m ...
Goody I have a lot of admiration for those who fight the fires Good for you,sorry the rain wasn't a bit more for you though frown
Great news for you mcg rain ,rain,rain,pleased you personally survived the fires ,the grass & feed will grow back in no time,I guess you will be willing it to grow faster laugh laugh save a few dollars on the fertiliser.

We are giving our sheep & cattle salt blocks & the hundreds of roo's wink they are still eating the old butts of grass that are left,but doing it hard poor things,if it doesn't rain soon we will be out scrub cutting to feed them,probably start after xmas

FE hope you are well away from the bushfires over there.

While I am at it I wish you all the seasons greetings & may we all have a very wet New Year

Top
#444060 - 11/12/2002 11:58 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Fine Elsewhere Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/09/2002
Posts: 1873
Loc: Albany.W.A.
Hi Mcg - Fires to burn the little feed u had left!(what next!!!) but 3" is a good rain in anyones language. I asked those questions about season breaks etc, because your seasonal patterns seem to be different from ours - in a normal year (if there ever is such a thing now) we would be dry from December to April, we dont like early breaks as the pasture shoots, then gets burnt off with heat - Easter breaks r our favourite, but 1 year we had a February break & just got enough coastal drizzle on & off to keep green until autumn - that was a good, but abnormal year. I have also found that by putting on super with a break in season it makes plants stronger to better withstand any "dry " period that might hit after the break (if that makes sense)& gets plant away so they can better withstand the cold "non growing" period June - August. Also the last paddocks to get Spring super are always the last to die off when summer comes - fertilizer is absolutely necessay in our country (not the richest soil in the world) but boy is it expensive. To counter recent years high super prices we have gone back to traditional autumn & spring applications, as we recon putting 1/2 on twice yearly is better value - but its all debateable? Look foreward to hearing of your new green pasture in a few weeks time wink wink
In the meantime we r hoping for something special for Heather, Goody & others in the next few weeks - just to make Chrissy better!!
:wave: FE

PS Yes Heather we r fine - i put in extra breaks this year because the feed is so dense, the breaks wont stop a fire but r real handy to burn back to if u get a chance - like your computer skills with the Season greetings - sorry i'm not that smart frown

Top
#444061 - 12/12/2002 23:56 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
W W Offline
Member

Registered: 09/01/2002
Posts: 1227
Loc: Cobar 31.50S, 145.83E, 243m ...
Hi FE Thanks for the kind thoughts

I am not so smart other people taught me so here goes
Left click on my Seasons Greetings
click properties
Highlight address
Click OK
write whatever you want in your post
click on edit
click on paste

at the very beginning & end of the address do this
[img] [/img]

Hope it works for you its all practice & I have done lots & lots believe me laugh laugh

Heather

Top
#444062 - 13/12/2002 11:20 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Goody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2002
Posts: 734
Loc: Wagga District ...Where Crows ...
Hi to Everyone !

FE you know we seem to have a very similar season & conditions expectation like you, I think we may be a bit drier though with 550mm or 22"
We look forward to an Autumn break in Mar (hav'nt had one for yonk's) so in that light yes we would prefer things to stay dry now over the summer except of course for storm run off water.

Wet summers only grow rubbish type vegetation in the fields like camel melon, variegated thistles , bindies & burrs. One grass that has come along in a big way with wet summers is Hairy Panic (fool of a thing it is !) so with to much growth fields have to be sprayed with Glyphosate to conserve moisture for the winter.

MCG I am so glad to hear of things turning around for the better up that way laugh laugh :p ! .... thought of you yest when on the ABC radio a man from your area was saying he had a foal that had not seen rain so it was bucking & carrying on a treat laugh

Heather I am a bit of a softie when it comes to wildlife so I would help them out too if I could in your circumstances.
I admire you for doing that ! smile
The usual human reaction is to blast everything that gets in the way with bullets...must be very difficult though with the numbers of kangaroos I imagine you would have. :rolleyes:
I am establishing an 8ha area at the moment for flora & fauna ... tis my pet project so to speak. Do you know where I could get a few emu's ? laugh
Early morning here we have a few kangaroos rabbits & hares feeding on our lawn. Lizards have moved in as well so nice to see some bearded dragons scooting about the roses.
I am going to see if I can keep up with you in pc skills by putting in a "mug shot" so :cheers: for now 8 8 blue lovely day !
Oh thanks for the kind words in regard to the fire fighting

Top
#444063 - 13/12/2002 11:26 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
mcg Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 06/11/2002
Posts: 213
Loc: Hunter Valley
Hi Goody
We have some friends out west that have emus. I will see if we can get some young ones for you. It is nice to see someone looking out for Flora and Fauna. We have to cull the roos to some extent but we don't touch wallabys or anything else. Only roos and wild dogs, when we have to.

Top
#444064 - 13/12/2002 20:35 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Goody Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2002
Posts: 734
Loc: Wagga District ...Where Crows ...
MCG I am a pc dummy ...ha no photo I don't know how to do it
Thanks for the offer of the birds, I will wait untill I have established the pasture next Spring before I can move in that direction.
I will put in 2 ha of lucerne around the western & northern side of the home as a firebreak, the Goody Nature Reserve is adjacent to here laugh
I noted with interest in one of your earlier posts that you said your creek still possessed water holes that were shared with platypus, kangaroos etc... This sounds like a wonderful piece of Australiana that you have... lucky you !
Out of curiosity with the Rural Fire Service can I ask you how the resources shape up for your local brigade with the recently introduced Standards of Cover with the R.F.S. ? Do you think the fire fighting truck units etc are adequate to protect your area ?
We have to as farmers by Council regulation establish a firebreak on the northern & western side of our properties that must be 12' wide, also a firebreak around each individual field of crop. We have 51 farms in our brigade cover so it is a big area . I am what is called a Group Captain with this brigade an a adjoining one so a lot to care for when fires start.
A little voice is telling me this is not rain potential for south east Oz laugh :wave:

Top
#444065 - 21/12/2002 19:56 Re: Rain potential southern and eastern Aust
Hector Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/01/2001
Posts: 1845
Loc: Melbourne
Hi everyone, this is Hector. Models are indicating good rainfall potential with thunderstorms for the NSW Hunter and Central West on Monday afternoon. AVN shows falls of up to 50mm possible and the precipitable water index has similar values with high instability (TT >50) for that region. This is one to watch but it looks like falls will be isolated.
Hector
PS. Merry Christmas to everyone and I hope there's good rainfall for you smile

Top


Who's Online
10 registered (EddyG, slipperyfish, Kino, Wet Snow, Pete R, Ronfishes, Ollieo, ozthunder, Steve777, 1 invisible), 280 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
colorado, Effrem, whitsunday
Forum Stats
29343 Members
32 Forums
23662 Topics
1458845 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image