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#455434 - 23/01/2007 14:38 Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
RyanSEQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2007
Posts: 1262
Loc: Redbank Plains, QLD
by the looks of the track map below there may be a VERY VERY slight chance that it could head towards australia??? STORM Warning 047 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 23/0100 UTC 2007 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone ZITA [990hPa] centre was located near 15.0 South
156.1 West at 230000 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 15.0S 156.1W at 230000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast about 14 knots and expected to accelerate
further.
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to
55 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the northern
semicircle
and within 120 miles of centre in the southern
semicircle.

Forecast position near 17.4S 154.0W at 231200 UTC

and near 20.3S 152.3W at 240000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 045.
[img]http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html[/img]

**edited title**

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#455435 - 23/01/2007 15:03 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
No, there is not even the slighest chance that TC Zita could more anywhere near Australia.
You may find this Fiji weather map interesting:
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0640weath.php

TC Zita is the low in the far north-east of the map between the Northern Cook Islands and Southern Cook Islands, far away on the other side of the international date line (note the longitude 156.1 WEST). TCs don't develop much further away than that!

There is another tropical low, 8F, a bit closer to Fiji (the low near Samoa), nearer to the middle of the map, but even that one is too far away, and most likely will move further away to the east.

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#455436 - 23/01/2007 16:05 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
Tc that form that far east never affect austrailia and i cant see it becoming a severe TC

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#455437 - 24/01/2007 00:17 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
This isn't actually a severe TC as in the title (Nor ever will be as that is an Australian term).

975hPa, 60kts.

Hurricane Warning 050 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 23/1314 UTC 2007 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone ZITA [975hPa] centre was located near 17.3 South 153.8 West at
231200 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 17.3S 153.8W at 231200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast about 15 knots and expected to accelerate further.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre increasing to 65 knots in
the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the northern semicircle

and within 120 miles of centre in the southern
semicircle.

Forecast position near 19.9S 152.6W at 240000 UTC
and near 23.0S 151.9W at 241200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send
reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 049.

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#455438 - 24/01/2007 06:53 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
This thing is moving south east pretty quickly now. Should be within TCWC Wellington's AOR in just over 18 hours. The 12 hour position should read S2312 W14936 I think or it doesn't make sense.

TC ADVISORY
DTG:200701231900Z
TCAC:NFFN
TC:ZITA
NR:04
PSN:S2000 W15142
MOV:SE 20KT
C:975HPA
MAX WIND:60KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR:S12312 W14936
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR:55KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR:S2442 W14824
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR:50KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR:S2706 W14754
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR:50KT
NXT MSG:20070124/0130Z

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#455439 - 24/01/2007 07:46 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
ropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 23/2020 UTC 2007 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone ZITA 07F [975hPa] centre was located near 20.0S
151.7W at 231800 UTC. Position poor based on HRES GOES EIR imagery.
Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate
further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close
to the centre decreasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect
winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots
within 90 miles of centre in the northern semicircle and within 120
miles of centre in the southern semicircle.

Organisation still good despite inflence of shear. Outflow good in
most quadrants. Cyclone is moving into a strongly divergent and
sheared region. Dvorak based on shear pattern with DT3.5. PAT and MET
= 3.5, thus T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Global models maitain a southeast
acceleration with gradual weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 23.2S 149.6W mov SSE 19kt with 55kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 27.1S 147.9W mov SSE 20kt with 50kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 31.4S 147.9W mov SSE 20kt with 45kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 34.6S 149.0W mov SSW 18kt with 40kt
close to centre.

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#455440 - 25/01/2007 07:19 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B6 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 24/0807 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZITA 07F [987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S
151.2W AT 240600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HRES GOES EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ABOUT 50NM NORTHWEST OF REMAINING COLD
CONVECTION. OUTFLOW GOOD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BUT POOR ELSEWHERE.
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A STRONGLY DIVERGENT AND SHEARED
REGION. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT2.0. PAT AND MET
SUPPORT, THUS T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS MAITAIN A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC NEAR 27.6S 150.0W MOV SSE 22KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC NEAR 31.9S 149.2W MOV SSE 20KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC NEAR 35.2S 149.8W MOV S 18KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC NEAR 36.6S 152.1W MOV SW 12KT WITH 20KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

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#455441 - 25/01/2007 08:21 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
The analysis time on that is over 15 hours old. wink It passed to TCWC Wellington late this morning.

GALE WARNING 242
This affects ocean area/s: PACIFIC

Cyclone ZITA [995hPa] centre was located near 27.5 South 150.2 West
at
241700 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 27.5S 150.2W at 241700 UTC.
Cyclone is moving south about 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of up to 35 knots within 180 miles of centre
in southeast quadrant and within 90 miles of centre elsewhere.

Cyclone expected to become Extra-Tropical next 6-12 hours.

Forecast position near 31.5S 149W at 250600 UTC

and near 35S 150W at 251800 UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 238.

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#455442 - 25/01/2007 12:19 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
Zita is no more.

GALE WARNING 246
This affects ocean area/s: PACIFIC

AT 250000UTC

Low 998hPa, former Tropical Cyclone ZITA, near 29S 150W moving
southsoutheast 20kt.
Within 180 miles of low in southeast quadrant and within 90 miles of
low elsewhere: Clockwise 35kt.
Area of gales moving with low.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 242.

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#455443 - 25/01/2007 12:21 Re: Tropical cyclone Zita (fiji)
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
bye bye zita, it didnt affect any islands lucky this time.

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