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#460370 - 25/10/2008 12:04 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
All they do here is rip apart cyclones and dont come anywhere near the coast so we dont get any storms anyway laugh

In relation to this place.
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#460371 - 13/11/2008 09:22 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
why ,if the signal is amplifying in phase 5 ,does the cloud signature say anything but.?Makes me really doubt the value of the spiderweb,I would have thought weekly runs of global sat pics was a much more acurate tool.And as for diminished sheer in neutral conditions ,I dont see that as being the case so far up north ,in fact ,possibly the complete oposite

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#460372 - 13/11/2008 09:41 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah was looking at that spiderweb this morning SC500. Has done the full circuit back on itself and back out into phase 5.

I wonder if still being early in the season is the reason for the weak cloud signature? Have to admit though we have been getting a marked increase in activity locally over the last 4-5 days so maybe this might kick the season off!!
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#460373 - 13/11/2008 11:03 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Quote:
Originally posted by storm_chaser500:
why ,if the signal is amplifying in phase 5 ,does the cloud signature say anything but.?Makes me really doubt the value of the spiderweb,I would have thought weekly runs of global sat pics was a much more acurate tool.And as for diminished sheer in neutral conditions ,I dont see that as being the case so far up north ,in fact ,possibly the complete oposite
I always liked MJO Princess's analogy of a train. Sometimes you see a freight train have empty carriages in the middle and the last few will have containers on them. It still moves through whether empty or full.
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#460374 - 13/11/2008 11:03 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
but all the activity is in indian ocean ,and philipines areas,the later being phase 5 ,but a definate concentration of cloud in the phase 1-2 areas.Sheer is killing most activity before it really gets going .normally storms that hit darwin from s,e keep going w,n,w for hundreds of klms .This year ,theyre getting sheered on the coastal fringe ,most times.yeh and some trains dont have any carraiges at all /.lol.I think theres something else coming into play ,what that is ????????my guess ,warmer ocean temps to darwins n,w

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#460375 - 13/11/2008 11:10 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
DJC Offline
Member

Registered: 22/10/2007
Posts: 5905
Loc: Townsville, Condon. 621mm PMR,...
Very strange that the signal has been tracked going back into phase 5 very rapidly. Don't really know what to make of it at this stage. I think it will have to go around again in a more typical cycle to see better conditions/more activity. In about a months time I think we will start to see far more typical wet season conditions. Still that MJO signal has baffled me. confused

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#460376 - 13/11/2008 11:11 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
I would be inclined to think it will be in phase 1 very soon .how thats explained on the spiderweb is beyond me

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#460377 - 13/11/2008 11:14 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
DJC Offline
Member

Registered: 22/10/2007
Posts: 5905
Loc: Townsville, Condon. 621mm PMR,...
Quote:
Originally posted by storm_chaser500:
I would be inclined to think it will be in phase 1 very soon .how thats explained on the spiderweb is beyond me
It is very active over the northern Indian Ocean. If I were to go by sat imagery, I would never have imagined it was in phase 5 already and increasing in amplitude.

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#460378 - 13/11/2008 11:51 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
they explain it by saying the cloud signature lags behind the signal,but if its that far behind ,the sat pic must be more acurate ,aspecially if you watch a week or more run.the water vapor aspecially.By the way ,is there anywhere that does a water vapor GLOBAL sat run

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#460379 - 13/11/2008 12:18 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
adam17 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/01/2002
Posts: 3268
Loc: Townsville - Queensland
What is the purpose or what information can be obtained from Water Vapour Imagery?

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#460380 - 13/11/2008 12:54 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
for a start ,it makes it easy to pinpoint dry surges,locate upper highs ,lows ,etc ,etc,where cross equatorial flow is likely to concentrate .The list goes on

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#460381 - 18/11/2008 10:06 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
Can we really believe the spiderweb{ by cloud concentrations }YOU WOULDNT THINK SO.Badly needs revising

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#460382 - 18/11/2008 10:55 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Oz_*# Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2008
Posts: 425
Loc: Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada
yeah SC500, i mean i'm still learning about the MJO & all, but did it not go from phase 5 to 4 to 5 again on the web?? & the cloud signal definately is not in the 4,5 position. confused

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#460383 - 18/11/2008 11:07 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
There is so much of a broader picture when considering monsoons. The MJO alone cannot be an instrument used to determine outside weather. It IS a MAJOR use for the monsoon season but typically NO MATTER what WEATHER instrument, there HAS to always be several different instruments used to effectively forecast this type of weather.

MJO of late has not been consistent with the outside conditions, and therefore staff will be underway with further upgrading any faults/misguided forecasting.
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#460384 - 18/11/2008 11:20 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
then remove incorect spiderwebs until revised,STOPthe miss info.blind willie can see its wrong of late

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#460385 - 18/11/2008 11:23 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Oz_*# Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2008
Posts: 425
Loc: Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada
Quote:
Originally posted by storm_chaser500:
blind willie can see its wrong of late
thanks for the compliment SC500 wink laugh

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#460386 - 18/11/2008 11:31 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Quote:
Originally posted by storm_chaser500:
then remove incorect spiderwebs until revised,STOPthe miss info.blind willie can see its wrong of late
You cannot simply just remove the whole concept until revised, it is needed in this time of year, and there is no indication that this trend of misleading information will continue. Every model has problems from time to time, the Best thing you can do for yourself is learn other ways of forecasting.

Stephen
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#460387 - 18/11/2008 11:39 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
I didnt say remove the whole concept .maybe i should have said CHECK data against reality before uploading it .Is that so hard ,they should be able to see if its reality ,or fantasy .Having said that ,if you need to look at the sat pic to determine if its acurate or not ,youve got to queery its usefulness.Wind chimes moving ,now thats a good sign wink wink

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#460388 - 18/11/2008 17:26 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
DJC Offline
Member

Registered: 22/10/2007
Posts: 5905
Loc: Townsville, Condon. 621mm PMR,...
This is very interesting indeed:
It typically takes a week or two for the active region of convection to progress sufficiently eastward to have a direct influence over the longitudes of northern Australia. This would lead to an active phase of the MJO developing around northern Australia in the latter part of November to early December, somewhat earlier than previously anticipated. This is probably too early for broadscale onset of the North Australian Monsoon, and whether onset occurs during this active phase may depend on how long the active phase lingers over the longitudes of northern Australia. The period from late November is may thus see a greater than usual likelihood of tropical cyclone development about northern Australia.

Taken from the Weekly Tropical Climate Note.

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#460389 - 18/11/2008 17:55 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
so is that related to the spiderweb ,or the cloud signature ,two completely different timeframes???????or are they edging their bets wink wink

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