Page 5 of 14 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 13 14 >
Topic Options
#460410 - 09/12/2008 22:56 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Catahoula Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 26/09/2006
Posts: 11
Loc: Bees Creek
Agree, very pre-monsoon today! Will be suprissed if we don't feel the effects of the true Monsoon by mid next week!

Top
#460411 - 09/12/2008 22:57 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18892
Loc: The Beach.
I know it isn't on Australia yet , but you could be forgiven for looking at the current sat pics and thinking it was.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#460412 - 09/12/2008 23:03 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25412
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
certainly looks like a series of lows across the continent atm, hopefully we will see a lot more of that over the next few months.
local bom was on seven news tonight once again warning about the upcomming season. be prepared. one must think are they a little concerned?
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

Top
#460413 - 09/12/2008 23:26 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 704
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
The main monsoon trough is developing through Indonesia. The latest TXLAPS 10m wind analysis places the trough just above the Island of Java and continues the westerly flow right through to a light northwesterly flow over Darwin and the NT.

Top
#460414 - 09/12/2008 23:33 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18892
Loc: The Beach.
Yeah it's actually marked on BoM's charts Steamy. Runs through Port Moresby and into the Solomon's. :cheers:
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#460415 - 09/12/2008 23:36 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18892
Loc: The Beach.
Quote:
Originally posted by Mick10:
certainly looks like a series of lows across the continent atm, hopefully we will see a lot more of that over the next few months.
local bom was on seven news tonight once again warning about the upcomming season. be prepared. one must think are they a little concerned?
I rec
I reckon all that warm water around the nth might be the reason Mick. Things are certainly in place for a cracker. Particularly if the mjo continues it's refusal to move across the pacific like it has been.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#460416 - 10/12/2008 01:16 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Hmm, Looking at the latest Darwin MSLP analysis from 00z it looks like we have a HIGH of 1024 in China pushing a surge of NE trades southwards towards the equator. This will no doubt have the effect of pushing the MT southwards with a new surge of NW winds. This is no doubt what GFS has been predicting all along with its enhanced Indonesian rainfall later this week.

Any day now, we'll see those heavy Indonesian falls, and then it's game on smile smile smile

Top
#460417 - 10/12/2008 13:17 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18892
Loc: The Beach.
Sat pics show the main area of convection is now in the southern hemisphere. Bring on the rains.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#460418 - 15/12/2008 14:09 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
looking good to me .plenty n,w flow ,its on its way ,just a case of where the focus is :bounce:Dont think it will hold off till my 21st call, but who knows hasnt crossed yet ,but certainly looks to be forming

Top
#460419 - 15/12/2008 14:26 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14992
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer the trough powered through us yesterday and is now offshore which will act to re-invigorate the Monsoon Trough. Def expect an increase in cloud, convection and rain/storms etc to our N/NW/W over the next few days, however given that models now point at a fair low developing N of the Kimblery I'm not convinced the flow into Darwin will be quite strong enough just yet to bring in the Monsoon. Possibly a brief weak surge at best. See how the low develops I guess.

TS cool

Top
#460420 - 15/12/2008 14:47 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
agreed t,s .but i think the comp was after a date of the monsoon crossing the mainland ,not necessarily darwin.so if a low forms to our west ,it dosnt really afect the outcome,will just take a couple more days as it would be further sth ,all good with my prediction ,as i followed up with eighty mile beach cyclone .Fair chance,{at the moment}

Top
#460421 - 15/12/2008 22:17 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14992
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer spose thats a tough one to argue, because more ofen that not, the Monsoon arrives in Darwin first, the Cape York and then the Kimberly. So yer once that cyclone cross the coast and the westery gets established you can argue it is there. Though atm, the mets have thrown in Monsoonal showers in the precis for wed/thurs. So def thinking a burst of N to NW winds on the outer rims of this low....though I think it will be brief, however, extended GFS really smells that old vort area I was on about before, just took it's prog back and brings the low down just west of Tiwi and forms another TC, closer to home. If that were to occur then we would absolutely be in our squally monsoonal showers and the odd storm tending to heavy rain areas further inland.

I'll be in Adelaide from the 21st-27th so I'm sure onset will occur between those dates.

TS cool

Top
#460422 - 17/12/2008 01:08 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm freak Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2006
Posts: 924
Loc: cairns
i can literally see the monsoo trough gaining strength on sattelite. wont bbe long now another weeek or two and it should have reached north queensland :bounce: smile
_________________________
Storm Freak

Top
#460423 - 17/12/2008 03:37 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14992
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Dump on Mirrie (what I call it after its 700mm in 24hrs In Feb) is getting dumped on again!!! 124.4mm and rising fast, 50mm fell in 30mins just now. Watch the obs here http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60801/IDD60801.94116.shtml

Also note the first genuine monsoonal squall is just about to hit the NW corner of the Tiwi's....could get wet for Darwin 2moro (well today now)

TS cool

Top
#460424 - 23/12/2008 13:01 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Darumbal Offline
Member

Registered: 13/01/2008
Posts: 583
Loc: Darumbal = Original people of ...
So Billy happened without any help from the MJO, it was in phase 6-7 when this monsoonal burst flared and moved into the topend, interesting. Perhaps this season is going to be a good one, and a unique one in that the MJO is not the ‘be all and end all’ in delivering tropical activity to northern Australia as it has been for the past decade.

Top
#460425 - 23/12/2008 13:57 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
I would have thought the M,J,O was involved ,aspecially in its birth .6-7 does efect nth aus in our summer?????

Top
#460426 - 23/12/2008 14:17 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Darumbal Offline
Member

Registered: 13/01/2008
Posts: 583
Loc: Darumbal = Original people of ...
Quote:
Originally posted by storm_chaser500:
I would have thought the M,J,O was involved ,aspecially in its birth .6-7 does efect nth aus in our summer?????
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp

Top
#460427 - 23/12/2008 14:41 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
so whats your point?

Top
#460428 - 23/12/2008 14:52 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25412
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
well phase 7 would certainly be out of the NT/WA area i would think. but also this first monsoonal burst has brought the other GOC low aswell.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

Top
#460429 - 23/12/2008 22:04 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2008/2009
storm_chaser500 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/02/2007
Posts: 572
Loc: darwin
not really ,cause as we all know the signature lags behind its location

Top
Page 5 of 14 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ... 13 14 >


Who's Online
18 registered (Flowin, crikey, Bundy, Kino, roves, SteveB93, chasers addict, DDstorm, avinet, Sidney, ashestoashes, sjt2060, whethertraveller, mysteriousbrad, Reefer, pkgjmg, explorer, Jimi), 143 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
cyclops, dylan_dawg, dylzi, Farmer, GrizzlyBear, Sailfish, tonzo
Forum Stats
29839 Members
32 Forums
24092 Topics
1517171 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image