NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 2 of 6 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 >
Topic Options
#460633 - 09/12/2006 18:27 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5355
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
NT wet season to start next month
The weather bureau is predicting it will still be another month before the wet season truly gets under way in the Top End.

The statement comes despite last night's storms which produced up to 19 millimetres of rain across parts of the Northern Territory.

The bureau's senior forecaster, Ian Robinson, says Territorians will have to wait until next year for monsoonal conditions.

"No, it's not the break," he said.

"No, this is just the general build up pattern of this isolated storm and shower activity that comes and goes from day-to-day.

"We're not expecting any real monsoonal conditions until early next year."

Top
#460634 - 09/12/2006 21:29 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Starting to look suspicious
Satellite image

Top
#460635 - 09/12/2006 21:33 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
I was thinking the same thing today it seems to be all firing

Top
#460636 - 09/12/2006 23:12 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
Every event is different in its effects in Australia, and there are often periods of unexpected good rainfall in some areas.

Top
#460637 - 17/12/2006 11:58 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
I noticed a strong monsoon surge of up to 60km/h right down along the east coast of China flowing southwards. It could even strengthen further if a new typhoon emerges and moves towards vietnam. Wonder if this is a good sign for aust

Top
#460638 - 17/12/2006 12:08 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
I think that late season typhoons in the northern hemisphere generally only slow the development of the northern Australian monsoon by interrupting the cross equatorial flow and ensuring that more moisture remains north of the equator.

Top
#460639 - 17/12/2006 16:41 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5355
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
I think that late season typhoons in the northern hemisphere generally only slow the development of the northern Australian monsoon by interrupting the cross equatorial flow and ensuring that more moisture remains north of the equator.
Yep this is so, i have seen developing systems near the solomons get sucked up into intensifying typhoons in the Nth West Pacific. Not good for us here if it keeps up.

Top
#460640 - 17/12/2006 16:43 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
sugar mill tour guide Offline
Member

Registered: 09/07/2004
Posts: 1817
Loc: Proserpine North qld
sorry to change the subject. But someone could please turn the fan off. im want to go fishing next week. it looking really rubbish from thursday onwards

Top
#460641 - 17/12/2006 16:55 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Hakatere Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 29/11/2006
Posts: 49
Loc: Cairns North
I think Thursday will be the peak of the winds Sugar,models have the ridge along the coast weakening from then on.

Top
#460642 - 17/12/2006 18:08 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
been a while since ive seen it this strong. The possible typhoon system has slightly eased, hopefully it doesnt disturb this frown

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDYTX003.10M&number=2

Top
#460643 - 17/12/2006 20:11 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
been a while since ive seen it this strong. The possible typhoon system has slightly eased, hopefully it doesnt disturb this frown
i havent seen that chart before mate, obviously its wind directions, but does it all mean?
also, JTWC predict the depression to reach cat 3 on its way to the Phillipines, 3rd in 3weeks (?).
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

Top
#460644 - 18/12/2006 00:44 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Yeah going by these charts
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html
this sytem is going to dissipate rapidly after reachining Manila.

Top
#460645 - 19/12/2006 10:11 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The current MJO is now in Phase 3. I wonder if it will make it all the way around this time? It's come a cropper the last two times. The last one got as far as phase 4 before disappearing.
_________________________
The original donut hole

Top
#460646 - 19/12/2006 12:54 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it shoud usher in the monsoon shouldn't it?

Top
#460647 - 23/12/2006 18:45 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
looks to be building of NW WA it is only 1-2 weeks early.

With the observed recent warming of the sea surface over the Indian Ocean west of Australia, suppression of convection may not be as much of a factor as in recent MJO events, and the next active MJO phase may well dictate the onset of monsoon over northern Australia. Over the last week or so convective activity has been above average in the central to eastern Indian Ocean, which is about 30 days after the previous occurrence. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif. When this active MJO phase has propagated eastward to Australian longitudes, it should provide the window of opportunity for MJO enhanced convection over northern Australia, possibly some time close to the New Year. There is sometimes a lag between the first signs of active MJO phase over northern Australia and actual monsoon onset, but this lag is quite variable. So it seems quite likely that northern Australia will see onset of monsoon conditions sometime from close to the New Year, to the first week or so of January.

Top
#460648 - 23/12/2006 20:13 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
That is great in one way but geebus we haven't even had a strobeshow yet. Need at least a couple of weeks of them thanks laugh Not sure this first one will be overly strong, Feb will probably produce the best of this years rains after doing bugger all the 2 monsoons I've been here for. Not a prediction, just gut feeling smile

:cheers:

Top
#460649 - 24/12/2006 02:38 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
It's been trying to build for a couple of weeks now. I reckon it will fire up with this next passage of the mjo and produce some much needed activity for most of us up here.

Top
#460650 - 24/12/2006 07:10 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
is the MJO still in phase 3?

Top
#460651 - 24/12/2006 07:56 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 705
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
is the MJO still in phase 3?
Yes squid and moving towards phase 4.

See here http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp

Top
#460652 - 24/12/2006 08:11 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
cheers for that link, can someple plz explain how to read the link?

Top
Page 2 of 6 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 39 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Blinky_Bill, Blue Sky, cmonrain, hydzy79, Simon Clarke, V8R
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529242 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image