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#460673 - 29/12/2006 00:52 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
It may be that the 118E low is stonger in their analysis but I was using GMS IR and visually is looked weaker than the second low in my post.

12S 123E is now the main circulation at the moment, it may just be temporary, as most storm activity is further west.

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#460674 - 29/12/2006 00:58 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
the monsoon is sure deveoping very interesting times ahead looks good on sat pics.

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#460675 - 29/12/2006 04:01 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
I reckon the drought will break for central and northern Queensland this wet season.

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#460676 - 29/12/2006 12:04 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
well it is certinally looking like a possible drought breaking coming up this week

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#460677 - 29/12/2006 12:17 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#460678 - 29/12/2006 12:29 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
wrong side of the country for my likeing wink
but still a great sign cool
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#460679 - 29/12/2006 12:51 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
The monsoon activity commonly develops over that side of the country first, usually associated with the MJO as it moves towards our region.

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#460680 - 29/12/2006 13:10 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
I think Mick knows that R.N., he's just wants it to happen now, like all of us here in N.Q. laugh

P.S. how did you go with Decembers rainfall total so far, we have scored 104mm.

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#460681 - 29/12/2006 14:40 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Yes, Tempest, I expect Mick knows all about the usual monsoonal developments, but I was just thinking that might be of interest to some newer members.
Townsville Airport, according to Weatherzone has received only 47.4mm for December out of an average of 125.8mm. Mackay Airport has had 116mm, slightly above the average of about 105mm, but Mackay Bureau have only had 85mm, still just below average. Anyway, at least the grass is green, so i'm happy for now. If we happen to get our January average, the dams in our area should be nearly full too. smile

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#460682 - 29/12/2006 15:09 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Quote:
Originally posted by Mick10:
wrong side of the country for my likeing wink
but still a great sign cool
Only early days Mick. The large highs and associated trades are unfamiliar at this time of year. They will certainly help fire things up. I'll take a punt that our rain will come out of the gulf this year and be supplemented by coastal showers .

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#460683 - 29/12/2006 23:59 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
I notice the MJO is making big strides now, and is fast approaching phase 4 (See chart on page one of this thread).
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#460684 - 30/12/2006 00:03 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
cheers guys, impatient little bugger today arent I laugh
similar rainfall to tville airport here 40+mm here so far, well done on average.
great to see the afternoon buildup so well defined along the north and western areas, esp compared to a week ago, amazing when u think how fast things can change.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#460685 - 30/12/2006 00:27 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Yep RN I agree with your statement that the monsoon almost always develops in the NW regions and progressively pushes eastwards about 7 - 10 days later. We'll see increases in activity 0ver the NW early next week, in the NT mid next week and GOC late next week and then on the peninsula early in the 2nd week of Jan before things progress to the CS late in the 2nd week of Jan. Obviously this is looking at an atypical scenario of 0 tropical disturbances. If a TD/TS does occur it often throws a spanner in the works depending on system size and longevity. How is a matter for conjecture. A very large system in diameter may result in either a very large area of convergence to its East and West (as it will pump more Northerlies down from the Northern Hemisphere over a larger area), OR it in a less likely but still possible scenario would stop and then dissipate the MJO pulse. A smaller system in diameter puts less spanners in the works.

Some good HIGHS coming through east Asia now in the 1030's will make sure that we have moderate to fresh cross eqautorial trade wind flow so this monsoon trough won't be dissipating anytime soon. Now we just need some good HIGHS to come through the South of our continent and watch the amount of convergence explode(as impressive as it looks now, it's got nothing on a mature monsoon trough)

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#460686 - 30/12/2006 06:17 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
what is a suckhole?

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#460687 - 30/12/2006 07:29 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 363
Loc: Cairns
I think he is refering to a low as a 'suckhole'

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#460688 - 30/12/2006 09:21 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Well it's now official:

PART 2. SITUATION
At 291800 UTC.
Monsoon trough extends from 7S 90E to a weak low 1005 hPa, near 10S 107E, to
another weak low 1006 hPa, near 10S 120E to 5S 142E.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#460689 - 30/12/2006 09:28 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
ahh oks well lets just keep it a lows then people like myself wont get lost yes i was reading that this morning IW it has indeed developed and slowly moving south i believe

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#460690 - 30/12/2006 12:41 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
The monsoon is on time this year. A good sign?

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#460691 - 30/12/2006 12:58 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
http://northauschasers.com/ Check this site out. The radar for Darwin is excellent and as the monsoon comes down you will be able to follow it here.

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#460692 - 31/12/2006 00:03 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
MJO is now in phase 4. OMG, this is my 1,000th post! I don't wish to be labeled an addict! Okay, I'm going cold turkey! Bye bye for now. :wave:
_________________________
The original donut hole

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