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#460653 - 24/12/2006 08:57 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 705
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
cheers for that link, can someple plz explain how to read the link?
Click on the The 40 day Phase Diagram (Spiderweb) Green is for Novemeber and Blue is December the latest plot is for the 22nd and can clearly be seen in phase 3. If the plots fall within the circle then the phase is unknown.

Also click on the Current Phase and Explore Phases menu across the top for more information.

Cheers
HNW

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#460654 - 24/12/2006 09:02 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
thanks for the help Hot n wet :cheers:

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#460655 - 24/12/2006 23:25 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
DamonW Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2003
Posts: 206
Loc: Durack NT
Let's hope we don't have any such devestation here once the monsoon hits, it's coming....

Floods devastate South-East AsiaFrom correspondents in Jakarta
December 24, 2006 10:39pm

NEARLY 70 people have been killed and 200,000 forced to flee their homes in flash floods that have swept through parts of Indonesia and Malaysia in the past week, officials said today.

In Indonesia, the death toll has risen to at least 61 and hundreds more remain missing after torrential rains battered the island of Sumatra.

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#460656 - 25/12/2006 09:27 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Moonson has descended, even bom though today was going to be fine day with a shower about now they have thrown a storm in the forecast

Forecast for Monday
An afternoon shower or storm about, mainly inland. Light to moderate northeast
winds before an afternoon northerly seabreeze.


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#460657 - 25/12/2006 15:06 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
Thats what happens every year Damon. Indonesia gets the flooding rains, but we never do in the lead up.. id love to be proved wrong though. Down here id take that flooding over these horrid dry conditions and drought any day! Thats my 2nd x-mas wish smile

btw extended EC goes for the first tropical cyclone in the indian ocean, has it making landfall around Dampier laugh . Hopefully it does and all that moisture is fed down south to give us a good soaking!

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#460658 - 25/12/2006 18:54 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
how do u know for sure when monsoonal conditions have arrived apart form rain of course.

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#460659 - 25/12/2006 20:29 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695

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#460660 - 25/12/2006 20:43 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i hope this is what u are after madmax, u can always just grap a paste of someones quote and bring it in here yourself in future, if its relevant of course smile

Quote:
Originally posted by Jacob:
Lovely pictures Broomecam! My mate Danny is there at the moment and sent me some phone MMS's yesterday, he said the power was cut out before the storm even started properly!

One could be forgiven for thinking monsoon has set in here in Darwin, everything is rolling in from the NNE, and last night the apparent change was spooky. Dropping a mate off to the airport the upper levels looked like stalling E'ly then changing to W'ly. Banding in the upper levels looked like something you'd see in the mid lats.. Then to wake to a lovely downpour just set it all off.

Currently the sounding shows a monsoon westerly regime, although the mid troposphere still shows the NE steer, albeit weak.. (hence things are still flowing in from the NE).

Personally dont think it will last more than today, Id expect squalls to be arriving from the E by tomorrow again, but this has certainly brought forth out moisture injection.. and much needed I must say!

happy holidays among the palm trees, humidity, lightning and relaxation...

Lets not forget what happened to home this time in 74... Hard to conceive the whole joint being demolished by a tropical super-storm with the smallest eye in the planet's history..

:cheers:
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#460661 - 25/12/2006 20:44 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Jacob looking at GFS it has this whole area swamped for the next week. Be good to see what MJO reading says.

Monsoon trough is basically a low prssure area forming over most of Northern Australia and above like this

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0016

Also central Asia should be covered by areas of High Pressure associated with cold temperatures.

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#460662 - 25/12/2006 22:03 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
(I posted this in the Top End Wet thread as well - it sort of belongs to both threads and I couldn't decide :-))

Noticing thunderstorms are being steered from the NW to the SE over the last few days. I'm not too sure about the climatology of NT and WA but if this was going on here in NQ and FNQ I'd say the monsoon is beginning to set in. Thunderstorm steering from the NW here in QLD is very uncommon north of about 15 south unless we have a major major upper trough system or more commonly the monsoon is setting in. I've noticed a trend in the last 7 days of thunderstorms in the NT and Northern WA beginning to show this NW steering pattern (previously they were showing very little steering trend or any steering was variable day to day) which as I said in FNQ is synonomous with the onset of the monsoon.

Interested to hear your thoughts up North and out west guys but I'm thinking if the monsoon hasn't just set in already (in a very weak mode mind you) it will do so over the next 5 or so days.

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#460663 - 25/12/2006 22:03 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
These strong highs down south will create better convergence zones over the tropics, so you might also get some interesting explosive convection and tropical cyclones winding up quickly when the monsoon arrives wink . Will be watching the tropics with interest in the next several weeks, love seeing those huge totals mounting up

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#460664 - 25/12/2006 22:17 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
I checked out the Wyndham radar in Northern WA and it has rain coming in from the NW but has convenctive showers and storms coming in from the NE until they lift and get caught in the rain band and move SE, now I may be wrong so correct me anyone smile but to me seems like a major upper trough system to me fed in from WA and the waters of WA where they are exceptionally warm at the moment feeding into this system but from what I have heard and read I would think the Monsoon trough will make an appearance in and around Australia very soon it isn't far away probably see signs of it towards the end of this week or weekend in the eastern Indian Ocean then in NT just after New years and onto QLD probably a fortnight from now. Once it starts in WA I am expecting 3 or 4 tropcial depressions/cyclones alone with this First MJO with those very warm waters sitting there at the moment off WA.

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#460665 - 25/12/2006 22:20 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
These strong highs down south will create better convergence zones over the tropics, so you might also get some interesting explosive convection and tropical cyclones winding up quickly when the monsoon arrives wink . Will be watching the tropics with interest in the next several weeks, love seeing those huge totals mounting up
I agree Bokkey. It won't take much to fire things up if these highs maintain their strength. Certainly starting to look better to the nth of Australia.

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#460666 - 25/12/2006 23:30 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it sure is getting very interesting up there atm bring it on

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#460667 - 25/12/2006 23:56 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Have a look at this look off to the left the right looks pretty good to, that storm on the right is going fairly fast.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

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#460668 - 27/12/2006 08:13 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it sure is looking very interesting now

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#460669 - 28/12/2006 21:43 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

This topic should be changed to developing monsoon trough. There is two lows well to the west and one above the NT.

Low 1 : 106E 9S
" 2 : 112E 10S
" 3 : 135E 9S

Lots of turbulence along this line.

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#460670 - 28/12/2006 21:52 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
Its definately starting to happen, looks like the NT and WA are going to cop it soon. :cheers:

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#460671 - 28/12/2006 22:08 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
generally the average time for monsoon development in the QLD area is between xmas and new year, so the fact that its developing over WA & NT waters means we are probably only about 2weeks behind the "average" time period. assuming this MJO passage does kick in the actual monsoon.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#460672 - 28/12/2006 22:29 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
This, from the latest High Seas forecast from the Northern Area:

PART 2. SITUATION
At 280600 UTC.
A trough extends from weak low near 3S 94E to a weak low near 8S 106E to a weak
low near 10S 118E to 6S 130E to 5S 142E.

A fairly extensive trough line with three embedded lows. Yes, it's definitely stirring up.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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