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#460693 - 31/12/2006 08:17 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
well that is a good sign now that the MJO is finally in phase 4 i hope it takes its time going through phase 4,5 and 6

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#460694 - 04/01/2007 09:35 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5174
Loc: Diamond Valley
MJO is presently in phase 5 and shows no signs of breaking down.
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#460695 - 04/01/2007 09:58 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
storm freak Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/10/2006
Posts: 924
Loc: cairns
is that a good thing or a bad thing
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#460696 - 04/01/2007 10:28 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
It is a good thing in that there is likely to be enchanced rainfall in Qld while the MJO is in Phase 5, and even into Phase 6. It could help to bring the monsoon down from PNG into FNQ, but that is by no means certain.
If the MJO is still going strong through Phases 6-8, it will be affecting the South Pacific, probably causing cyclones out there, which will not help us, and would cause increasing westerly wind bursts over around the date-line which could help keep el nino going.

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#460697 - 04/01/2007 13:00 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5

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#460698 - 04/01/2007 14:33 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Frog Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2005
Posts: 391
Loc: Illinbah (Gold Coast Hinterlan...
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
What's the best phase for the MJO to be for SEQ rain?

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#460699 - 04/01/2007 14:53 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by Stormbunny:
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
What's the best phase for the MJO to be for SEQ rain? [/b]
Usually phase 5, maybe into phase 6 sometimes.

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#460700 - 04/01/2007 14:54 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Ntmick. Offline
Member

Registered: 08/02/2004
Posts: 1056
Loc: Humpty Doo N.T.(S12.53 E131.16...
Quote:
Originally posted by Stormbunny:
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
What's the best phase for the MJO to be for SEQ rain? [/b]
Phase 6 Depending on ALL other influences of course.

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#460701 - 04/01/2007 16:45 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Given the each MJO is between 30-50 days, each phase doesn't tend to last too long although it can affect the regions weather for a week or two.

Interesting to see the BoM here have gone for showers/storms and 31 here on Sunday I think it was. Usually that is a sign that the monsoon is not far off. The other hint is in the sounding here at the moment. All upper level winds are E which is the direction they are when the monsoon is in full swing, just have to wait for the surface-500 winds to swing around now.

:cheers:

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#460702 - 04/01/2007 17:04 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
If anything, the monsoon has weakened over the last 2 days. There is a chance it may not reach the maritime continent before the next passage of the mjo.

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#460703 - 04/01/2007 19:58 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Don't actually need the MJO for it to start but it obviously helps a bucketload if it starts while it is in phase 4-6 for Aust. If it is weakening as you say I am going to go spare. If the first really good rains are in early to mid Feb would have me climbing the wall wanting to do evil hurtful things to ppl and small animals by the end of this month lol

:cheers:

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#460704 - 09/01/2007 13:51 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
It will be interesting to see the report here later today

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

this current event looks to be continuing for a week or two, getting close to late Jan by then.

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#460705 - 11/01/2007 17:13 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Lightning Lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2003
Posts: 234
Loc: Darwin
This topic should be renamed "Late start to monsoon" as it is too late already to be Early start.

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#460706 - 12/01/2007 06:06 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5174
Loc: Diamond Valley
I agree LL; however, the MJO is now in phase 6! It still has a bit of life left it.
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#460707 - 12/01/2007 08:01 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Well, depending on where you live, some of the far northern parts of the country, including Darwin, have already experienced the start of the monsoon (I notice even some people in Darwin have been calling it the monsoon - perhaps some others may disagree and call it something else). I agree it wasn't an early start, but it hasn't been late either, except perhaps for those areas still waiting. That includes most of NQ (except for Torres Strait), but I agree with IW, while the MJO in Phase 6, there is still a good chance of monsoon activity for NE Australia. Also the recent very extensive and heavy thunderstorm activity in the inland parts of the north is either the start of the wet season, or an indication that it is imminent.

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#460708 - 15/01/2007 11:05 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
this is interesting form the MJO site

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. The monsoon has not developed fully with his event

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#460709 - 17/01/2007 07:28 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5174
Loc: Diamond Valley
The current MJO has now collapsed.
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The original donut hole

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#460710 - 17/01/2007 07:55 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
so what does that mean? Will it restart in phase 1 soon?

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#460711 - 17/01/2007 08:14 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
The BoM, when they prepared this week's tropical climate note seemed to think that we may be under the influence of the current MJO for about another week, based on the convection that is still occurring over northern Australia:
"This current active burst period of tropical weather in Australia's north should generally wane over the next week or so. If the recent 30-day periodicity of the MJO were to persist, the next active phase over northern Australia would begin around early February. However this current burst, with its very pronounced convective signature over the maritime continent, remains further west than recent previous events, allowing for the possibility that the next event may be delayed, perhaps closer to the middle of February."

Perhaps the MJO is continuing for a while, although in a weakened mode?
Or if the MJO has really collapsed now, then perhaps it could be that the "pronounced convective signature" is partly due to something else? Or perhaps the monsoon low causing the convection has taken on a life of its own?

It would seem unlikely to restart in Phase 1 for at least another week or two, and the timing of the next event over our region probably depends on how long the current situation persists.

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#460712 - 21/01/2007 21:55 Re: Early Start to Monsoon?
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
seeming that it is in phase 8 now when would it likely be in phase 1 again?

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