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#493805 - 27/07/2006 16:38 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Proteus, what the heck are u going on about?
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#493806 - 27/07/2006 17:03 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Proteus Offline
Member

Registered: 08/08/2005
Posts: 702
Loc: Paynesville on the Gippsland L...
Sorry Mick, it was a long lunch.

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#493807 - 27/07/2006 17:25 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
sounds like u drunk more than u ate!! :p
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#493808 - 27/07/2006 19:26 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
I think it's spiders and the indications their webs/burrows give as to El Nino.

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#493809 - 03/08/2006 12:38 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
My guess at another LaNina looks to be diminishing by the day. The lows that keep persisting near PNG are further enhancing NW winds across the equator and enhancing the warming in the pacific. Very unusual patterns for this time of the year.

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#493810 - 03/08/2006 12:55 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
I agree runoff, only have to look at the last 30 days of negative SOI's.

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#493811 - 03/08/2006 23:53 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
Didn't this(low off PNG) happen last year too? Or was it the year before.

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#493812 - 05/08/2006 17:13 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Check the daily reading for the soi -50 . I don't think I have ever seen a reading that low. eek eek

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#493813 - 05/08/2006 21:32 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
We had a reading lower than that in 2004 (-63.3 2nd April). It was followed a few weeks later by a sharp rise into positive territory.

Daily readings are of little consequence in the long term, but of course a string of them will send the usual (30-day) measure down like a lead balloon. I wouldn't expect it will stay in this generally lower area for more than about 10 days.

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#493814 - 06/08/2006 08:41 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
sugar mill tour guide Offline
Member

Registered: 09/07/2004
Posts: 1817
Loc: Proserpine North qld
well run off i think it quite normal to be dry at this time of year. Boy we did get chilly here with my weather station recored a chilly min of 3.5 deg at 5. 22am. the airport was slightly diffrent. most of the reading for Proserpine r from our airport.

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#493815 - 06/08/2006 18:46 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
I realise they are of little value ,just a passing remark.

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#493816 - 06/08/2006 18:48 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
-63.9 today !

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#493817 - 07/08/2006 15:24 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
Current daily SOI figures are a real worry.

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#493818 - 07/08/2006 15:34 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
sugar mill tour guide Offline
Member

Registered: 09/07/2004
Posts: 1817
Loc: Proserpine North qld
blowing so hard here today

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#493819 - 07/08/2006 15:36 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Yep some of the figures at the moment are quite extraordinary. 90 day is now into double negative figures and the current round of daily totals is going to be pushing it down pretty quickly.. Still over 50 below today...Not good - I blame Runoff for starting this thread wink

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#493820 - 07/08/2006 15:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
sugar mill tour guide Offline
Member

Registered: 09/07/2004
Posts: 1817
Loc: Proserpine North qld
i actually think the soi machine caught frost bite

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#493821 - 08/08/2006 12:45 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Thamks Kevin. I blame me too. The pacific ocean doesn't know what it's doing at the moment , so we have no chance. Current sub-surface maps show a rapid cooling toward Sth America in the past few days and more cool pooling on the thermocline. I guess it's fair to say that things are finely balanced at the moment. I won't be getting too down in the mouth about the soi just yet. Given we are in the driest months of the year it doesn't mean a great deal. I should have called the thread "I am backing a strong El nino". Then it would piss down all year. wink

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#493822 - 08/08/2006 13:35 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
You might be able to redeem yourself over the next few months, most models are forcasting for warmer waters to shift west again.

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#493823 - 08/08/2006 15:00 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
The latest weekly tropical climate note, which you can read here , suggests that the recent warming in the far eastern Pacific has peaked, and that the recent short periodicity of the MJO looks set to become longer (I think that will mean up to 50 days instead of 30). There is nothing to indicate El Nino is around the corner, especially as the most favoured time for its development has now passed.

I had hoped that on the balance of probability, we would see the start of a wetter cycle of years before too long. Whether warming trends in the Indian Ocean will generate some northwest cloudbands in a couple of months, remains to be seen. For Sydney, temperature fluctuations in the Indian Ocean do not significantly affect the rainfall it receives for August to October.

If we take a place such as Canowindra (central western plains of NSW), we also see a similar lack of significance. For a rain event of 25mm in 3 days, it could expect to receive such a fall by 14th September with a warming Indian Ocean, and 26th September with a cool ocean. The median date (all years) is 17th September, which means it has a 50% chance of receiving 25mm in 3 days by that date.

I haven't looked in depth at other places either in NSW or out of it, but a cursory view indicates that the southwest slopes of NSW receive heavier rains for the above period with a warming Indian Ocean, than at other times.

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#493824 - 08/08/2006 15:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
Well here's hoping that we see some beefy trade winds return to the Pacific soon Would also love to see the NW Australian coast continus to warm as it has slowly been doing. A wet spring would be a huge shot in the arm to the whole of the country.

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