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#494145 - 01/11/2006 19:27 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Ill have to disagree with BoM on the 30-40% patches over NSW and QLD, i dont understand why they are predicting that.
If you haven't done so already Boris, don't forget the 'fine print'. These forecasts are for the percentage probability of getting the median rainfall over the entire 3 months. We certainly could (and in fact I think we will) get some good rain this month, but look out for a dry, compensating December that will probably knock the gains back down to nearer the predicted figure, especially now that a dry October has passed already.

I hope of course that that doesn't happen.

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#494146 - 01/11/2006 23:39 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
Didn't think they'd call it this update but even the Nino 3.4 average should reach the values they were stating within two or three weeks.

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#494147 - 02/11/2006 09:59 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Its good to see the BOM show that its not always all 'doom & gloom' just because of an imminent El-Nino event (from the latest ENSO Wrap-up):

'What does this mean for Australia? Generally speaking the main impact on rainfall is during winter and spring, with a switch towards wetter conditions having been common, but by no means guaranteed, in January or February during previous El Niņo events. For example, widespread moderate to heavy rain fell in February 2003 at the end of the 2002/03 El Niņo event, while a similar pattern occurred in January 1995 after the peak of the 1994/95 event. In contrast, there was only patchy relief at the end of the 1965/66 event, with a substantial change in the rainfall patterns not occurring until August 1966. Readers are referred to Australian rainfall patterns during El Niņo events as a guide as to how the next few seasons might pan out. '

smile
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#494148 - 02/11/2006 22:17 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
It certainly went from being cool at night and mild days, to quite warm in a very short space of time. The humidity levels have picked up by 25% over the last weekend. Something is changing.

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#494149 - 02/11/2006 22:29 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
And the water temps off a broad area of NW WA are 1-2c above avg (currently around 29-30c) in places and the majority of the indian is also warmer than avg. Coral sea temps are increasing correspondingly, 26-27c in the eastern parts extending westwards. Along with the early indicators of deep surface and upper troughs across the country, me thinks the tropics are gonna go off this wet season in terms of rain and storms eek , dont know about cyclones though. They might be supressed somewhat, but who knows.. just as much as BoM maintains some optimism we could see a rather wet summer despite the elnino.

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#494150 - 03/11/2006 00:27 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
With current sea-surface variations cyclones are less likely to be strong. They can't be ruled out entirely though.

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#494151 - 03/11/2006 00:39 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
the cyclone season will depend heavily on how shear levels are

there are 30 kts of shear or more over most of northern Australia at this time.

especially 15S and points further south

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#494152 - 04/11/2006 14:57 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
Water off parts of WA is exceeding 31c. I just ran a little loop from the BoM SST temps and i can tell you the entire ocean off WA and NT is warming up fast! The coral is warming as well but very slowly. The water in the GOC that was 25-26c last week is now 28-29c! If this trend continues, or if its levelled off at least, theres no doubt the tropics (mainly over the top end) will see a ripper storm season.

Speaking of the ENSO situation; there have been some stronger bursts of trades in the eastern half of the pacific in the last couple of days, but i think the westerlies will win the day as they always do. The eastern half of the pacific is slowly cooling too.

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#494153 - 04/11/2006 20:56 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
I still reckon we are an even money bet for some decent rain this summer. Whilst we are in a weak elnino ,there are other things that affect our weather. If the GOC warms up we might see some flood rains drift over QLD out of a monsoon low. It has happened before in ELnino years. Infact the Nth westerlies tend to drive the lows down through QLD. Fingers crossed.

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#494154 - 05/11/2006 11:39 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
One particular run in the latest poama forecast goes for a weak (<-0.8c) La Nina by the end of April next year intensifying further during May and June. long way out but good to see something different on the forecast runs for a change smile

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

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#494155 - 05/11/2006 13:40 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
just remember this el nino was not even forcasted.
this time last year we were talking about a La Nina and a El Nino developed

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#494156 - 06/11/2006 00:50 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Yes Mark you are right. Every single model was forecasting a Neutral pattern. Just shows the models can be way out.

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#494157 - 06/11/2006 08:59 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Steamy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/03/2004
Posts: 705
Loc: Mackay Qld Australia
Negative Nancies

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#494158 - 06/11/2006 09:37 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
Some warmer SST's starting to creep into the coral sea.

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#494159 - 06/11/2006 13:04 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
Yeah tempest I just looked at the BoM sst map, dont know if you saw the same thing, shows areas of 26-27c seeping into the coral. Warmer ocean over NW WA will supress the strong shear over the country and increase the TC chances this summer. I would punt on a low to form in the GOC moving east and going up off cairns, but id much rather see that monsoon flow delivering tons of rain up there smile

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#494160 - 06/11/2006 16:51 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Sea-surface temps have dropped one deg along the eastern equatorial pacific. Very early days yet, but a breakdown over the next month or two would see some good rains this summer.

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#494161 - 06/11/2006 23:47 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Sean M Offline
Member

Registered: 30/06/2005
Posts: 955
Loc: St Lucia, formerly gympie
We can only hope, YTD rainfall is only about 400-500mm, should be around 1000. Wasnt the pacific warm last year, but a warm indian ocean kind of balanced it out?

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#494162 - 13/11/2006 23:19 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
Well I have been away for a couple of weeks and have not been able to get up to date on the ESNO situation. What has been going on? Looking at a SST anom chart it seems that the warm spot east of PNG has not moved as far east as I would have thought it would have in an el nino. The far Sth American coast has not warmed much more and the whole Pacific has warmed. The thing that looks weird is that the western warm spot seems to be hotter the the rest. If only that was near Qld!

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#494163 - 14/11/2006 22:47 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
It is that warm area in the western pacific that has the greatest bearing on our rainfall Adon. The further the warm water spreads back across the pacific the more likely we are to get a rainfall deficiency. Though the water is now warming in the Nth west of oz so it should help with our rainfall towars the end of the year. Fingers crossed.

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#494164 - 14/11/2006 23:26 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
Nino 3.4 anomalities rose to +1.09C this week

and Nino 4 rose to +1.23C

shows el nino is still strengthening

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