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#493825 - 08/08/2006 16:55 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
It does appear that the trades are strengthening again in the eastern pacific, but who knows for how long. I hope your models are right Tempest. Long dry summers are well past their use by date. A wet christmas would do just fine.

On another note, Some professor on the news the other night reckons that solar activity will increase in a couple of years from now and increase our flood rains. He went on to say that the past 10 years had seen little solar activity.

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#493826 - 08/08/2006 18:04 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
We are exiting a sunspot minimum at present. I seem to recall that the La Nina event of 1973/4 that brought the wettest summer in 100 years to Central Australia, occurred when sunspots were peaking.

If the professor is correct, it will reinforce my long-held view that we are in for a cycle of wetter years.

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#493827 - 08/08/2006 19:14 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
sugar mill tour guide Offline
Member

Registered: 09/07/2004
Posts: 1817
Loc: Proserpine North qld
well guys does any one pay attention to the weather forecast for the central coast and Whitsundays. well where expecting big king tides to exceed the hat that abit of a worry cause i was down at Midge Point this afternoon and to my surpise i wonder what going to happen to all the hay bails. ROund 3 here it comes i wonder how long it wil last this time

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#493828 - 09/08/2006 20:56 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
Yeah keith, the season of 1973/74 surely was extrodinary across the whole country, particularly across the northern 2 thirds of the continent which saw 700-1000mm in January alone.

Looks like most signs are creeping away from an el nino at the moment, but i wont hold my breath as it seems to be fluctuating one way then the other. Trades are starting to pick up (at last), our waters are starting to get warmer. Also the reason the SOI is so low is due to these lingering strong ridges which are extending right up to darwin allowing higher pressure figures. the SOI should rise up rapidly in the coming weeks/months as we get into the warmer months to around +3 (90 day avg) by Dec, and the summer (imo) will be wetter (if not the wettest in 5 years) across most of the tropics and the east coasts.

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#493829 - 09/08/2006 21:29 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
the summer (imo) will be wetter (if not the wettest in 5 years) across most of the tropics and the east coasts.
totally agree, i expect the tropics are going to have a bumper wet this year.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#493830 - 09/08/2006 21:41 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
Well law of averages has to point to wetter than average at SOME stage! Just hope that we can get a wetter than average year. We are in our 10th year of below average rain.

Was just looking at the TAO charts for the ocean buoys. Seems that the trade winds are nearly back to normal apart from the PNG area. But that low also looks to be weakening so hope by next week we can see lot of arrow pointing to us!

Just another thing with TAO charts, there was an area over near Sth America with no arrows there. Is that an area with no buoys or no wind?

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#493831 - 10/08/2006 16:32 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
No wind.

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#493832 - 10/08/2006 16:53 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
But wouldn't that show up as an anomily on the other chart? Or is that a doldrum area?

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#493833 - 10/08/2006 17:17 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Probably the latter. I think there are probably weak easterlies there Adon. They just haven't drawn them in. Note too that todays surface maps are showing the east coast of Australia is starting to warm. At the same time the temps off Sth America have dropped about 0.5 degrees in the past week.

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#493834 - 11/08/2006 14:52 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yay!!

Here's what the infamous Ken Ring (aka, Moon Man) has to say about the coming wet:

Extreme events (I'm guessing fo the whole of 2007)
Times to watch out for next year are cyclonic storms in Mt Isa at the start of April which could mean huge amounts of rain and flooding in the second week in April, that will be from that cyclone crossing the coast, then in the first and last week in May, next in the last week in Aug. and finally in the last week of December.

2007 may begin with a hot first and last week in January. However January may be the wettest month in nine years for many. Expect a record-hot last week in February. 10 March begins a heatwave to SA, ripening fruit and grapes prematurely. Around the same time in northern SA torrential rains may bring flooding. Around 24 March violent storms affect stock in central and SE districts. In mid April a tropical cyclone will hit N QSLD, affecting Townsville. Later in the year November and December could be unusually warm. Torrential rain along the east coast may ruin many vegetable growers' crops in 2007. Mid December sees a storm in NW Sydney causing flooding.


I wonder if Jennifer Lawson will make another appearance this year in the Cairns Post?? She needn't bother her predictions were crap last year..
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#493835 - 11/08/2006 15:22 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
lol? dont even bother following that prediction. For one, the necessity of having "on march 24 violent storms will occur" is totally irrelevant, thats whether they get storms on that day or not. This has been mentioned in several sentences, and since its been written by the "Mooon man"..we understand wink . May i also ask, where was that super typhoon which he forecast was going to hit Brisbane in February this year? maybe the satellites didnt pick it up confused

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#493836 - 11/08/2006 16:37 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
LOL yes he missed that one. Whats more amusing is how he changed his predictions on his website after the event had happened to make it look like he'd predicted it. laugh
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#493837 - 11/08/2006 18:34 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
I reckon he did that for his preditions of THIS YEAR! I am sure he said while being interviewed that 2006 would be wet. Cannot find a transcript of that interview tho. I am positive he said it tho. At least next year has been saved on somthing that will not dissappear!

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#493838 - 11/08/2006 18:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
lol, well 2006 aint been very wet, in fact its been the driest start i can remember. But i guess these things are hard to predict.

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#493839 - 11/08/2006 19:03 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
I heard it on Lawsie one morning he was going on about all these rain dates and other crap. I love it how he puts in his forecasts stuff like premature ripenings of fruit and such. Sounds like a prophet more tha a weather forecaster!

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#493840 - 11/08/2006 20:28 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA

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#493841 - 12/08/2006 09:24 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Computer models are wrong alot of the time Holts. In the meantime we can all have fun guessing.

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#493842 - 12/08/2006 10:58 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
SOI is finally starting to come up a little. smile only -8 or so yesterday. :rolleyes: Starting to see a cool patch near Sth America now. Hope it stays around and gets a LOT bigger!

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#493843 - 12/08/2006 17:18 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
The real SOI is the 30 day mean down to minus 15 today and falling rapidly over the past week or so.
The daily has dropped today from the minus 8 yesterday to -11 or so today once again.

I know computer models can be wrong and I pay not much attention to those overseas ones really. But it has lloked like a El-Nino all year from my observations and from my computer models of SOI which have predicted July and October to be around minus 10 to minus 12 or so all year. The under sea temps resemble 1982 and 2002 in quite a few respects which were both late El-Nino developing years. Trouble is by the time they call an official El-Nino we ussually have had 4 to 5 months of dry weather similar to this year.
But have fun looking and forecasting I enjoy all the comments greatly. It is all a difficult business to predict. The "solar man" from Europe now dead predicted an El Nino from July 2006 to May 2007 I noted last year. It is on my web-site in the links but I cant think of his name atm.

Any cool burst even if short-lived ussually does something to make it a bit wetter so even a minor cool surge would be good. But personally, anyway, I feel it would only be minor and short-lived.

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#493844 - 12/08/2006 17:20 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Incidently, I don't follow the solar theory, or use it in my computer models. But on larger climatic time scales it does appear to have some credability.

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