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#494425 - 07/01/2007 13:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
yeah john. Especially with the MJO still going strong, not looking good. Seems impossible to get into a La nina with the constant typhoon activity around the asian and pacific waters. Looks to me like a permanent el nino from here on in - time to get used to it me thinks.

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#494426 - 07/01/2007 14:07 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
To quote from a Qld Department of Primary Industries web-page about the MJO and westerly wind bursts:
"But while the MJO can trigger rainfall events over much of Queensland it can also produce westerly wind bursts in the Pacific Ocean. At certain times of the year these westerly wind bursts are often an early sign of the formation or regeneration of an El Niño sea surface temperature pattern. These westerly wind bursts are most dangerous in autumn and early winter when the sea surface temperatures are “locking” into a pattern for the following 12 months."

The full information together with diagrams:
http://www2.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate/15874.html

These westerly wind bursts are normally associated with the monsoon activity and tropical lows that occur at this time of the year, and the information I've quoted above would tend to indicate the WWB's are really only of major concern if they occur later in the season - autumn and early winter. And their really major significance would be their role in the commencement of a new el nino event, rather than as an indicator of continuance of an existing one. It is a normal result of the activity in the SPCZ that some WWB's will occur each season.
Also a strong MJO in Phases 5 and 6, usually does more good than harm to Australian seasonal conditions - it is only when the MJO remains strong in its passage across the Pacific that there would be concern about the increased likliehood of el nino being triggered, and usually this concern would apply later in the season than we are now. It is too early for alarm, especially when some other el nino indicators are showing a weakening trend.

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#494427 - 07/01/2007 14:22 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
MJO's seem rarer during El-Ninos once they get going, and any MJO like we have now, to me would be a good sign that the El-Nino is weakening. When we did not have any MJO's of note all Spring and early Summer, the wet was delayed and just patchy thundery at best. Now we have an MJO of substance things are starting to move into action in the tropical Australian region, and can then drift tropical moisture southwards to Southern Australia as well.

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#494428 - 07/01/2007 14:27 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
I hope so Holts; but looking at the latest MJO phase diagram (spiderweb graph), it looks as though it is dive-bombing towards oblivion.
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#494429 - 07/01/2007 17:37 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
According to the latest spider web graph, the mjo episode seems to be retreating back towards weakeness so hopefully it dies as a phase 5 or 6 so that we dont have to worry about WWBs and such.

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#494430 - 07/01/2007 18:14 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
According to the latest spider web graph, the mjo episode seems to be retreating back towards weakeness so hopefully it dies as a phase 5 or 6 so that we dont have to worry about WWBs and such.
And also hopefully you won't have to worry about much MJO related rainfall over eastern Australia?

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#494431 - 07/01/2007 18:21 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
yeah but it has passed that phase where E aust experiences rainfall. + It didnt bring much rainfall.. apart from WA from Isobel.

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#494432 - 07/01/2007 21:25 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Due to the cold SSTs off QLD it, the MJO I mean,may just stay over Tropical Australian warmer water and the top of Australia for a week or so, but, perhaps weakening slowly. It may still spawn another NT/WA TC yet or at least a tropical rain low system.

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#494433 - 07/01/2007 21:36 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it still has phase 6 to go yet before it stops influencing our rainfall I didnt know that the MJO could stall in a phase

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#494434 - 07/01/2007 21:47 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5338
Loc: Not tellin!
See what you can make out of this!

http://www.news.com.au/sundayheraldsun/story/0,,21021354-2862,00.html

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#494435 - 07/01/2007 22:14 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Hmmmmmmmm I don't know Adon. Those rainfall probabilities are based on averages over the past 100 years or so. They haven't stacked up over the past decade. 50- 60% is still only a half/half chance and yet they talk like it's a certainty.
I would love to see drought breaking rains right across Australia, however it has been so hit and miss of late.
The water they talk about off Indonesia looks to have cooled slightly in the past week.

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#494436 - 07/01/2007 22:46 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5338
Loc: Not tellin!
Yeah well I was a little puzzled how 60% and below was a deluge but that's paper headlines for ya! Will have to find that link to indian ocean Dipole again. I thought it was the other way round that was good for us!

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#494437 - 08/01/2007 15:32 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
The sea-surface temps along the equatorial pacific are continuing to fall. Interesting that at the same time, the warm pool of WA is breaking down. If that area had stayed high with a cooling of enso 4 we might have had a very wet late summer.

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#494438 - 08/01/2007 16:55 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Check this out guys, The latest sub-surface and surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, watch how the cooler water has expanded east and closer to the surface in the last 3-4 weeks if you ask me I think this El-nino is on its way out and should be finished by March at the latest April with a return to normal sea surface tempertures by then.

Heres the link:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2007/Jan.gif

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#494439 - 08/01/2007 17:46 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
sure is a good sign that el nino is on the way out laugh

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#494440 - 08/01/2007 22:32 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5338
Loc: Not tellin!
Well hope I am not jumping the gun but maybe you guys were right about the Elnino developing early and breaking down early. Lets hope that this will mean an earlier than usual break in the season and maybe even a wet end of the season for the east coast.

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#494441 - 09/01/2007 01:51 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
By the looks of that sub-surface data, I'd be prepared to say the event is on it's last legs. Not only is the cold water spreading back east, it is also breaking down the warm pool. This is reflected on the surface also. WWB's failed to develop off the back of the last mjo also. Another good sign. Cap it all off with a 30 day soi near zero and everything is saying goodbye el nino.

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#494442 - 09/01/2007 08:53 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
this weeks Nino 3.4 reading is down to +0.92C
thats the lowest reading since the week ending November 5, 2006

the 13 week data reads like this now
Quote:
2006100920061015 0.95
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
thats a 3 month average of +1.09C

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#494443 - 09/01/2007 12:54 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
What's your take on the event Mark? Do you think it's running out of steam?

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#494444 - 09/01/2007 14:53 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
its peaked IMO

the average is also going to start to decrease now also. The next 4 figures to come off are 0.95, 0.87, 0.97 and 0.91

its going to just slowly weaken from here on in

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/results/ocean_anals/SEQ_Equator/2007/Jan.gif

altho its not unusual tho as the 2002 event started to weaken about now

Quote:
2002123020030105 1.56
2003010620030112 1.33
2003011320030119 1.27
2003012020030126 1.02
2003012720030202 1.01
2003020320030209 0.76
2003021020030216 0.84
2003021720030223 0.95
2003022420030302 0.81
2003030320030309 0.64
2003031020030316 0.76
2003031720030323 0.83
2003032420030330 0.64
the way to read that is as follows
2003032420030330 0.64

2003 - Year
03 - Month
24 - Day
2003 - Year
03 - Month
30 - Day

and 0.64 is the anomality

as u can see the 2002/03 event started its weakening phase in Mid January just like the 2005/06 event is just the 2002/03 event peaked at a higher rate than the 2005/06 event did.

Looking at the SSTS over tropical Pacific since September u can see how it strengthened and now appears to be on a weakening trend

January 5, 2007
December 30, 2006
December 23, 2006
December 16, 2006
December 8, 2006
December 2, 2006
November 25, 2006
November 17, 2006
November 11, 2006
November 3, 2006
October 28, 2006
October 20, 2006
October 14, 2006
October 7, 2006
September 29, 2006
September 23, 2006
September 16, 2006
September 9, 2006

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