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#494485 - 17/01/2007 15:49 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Originally posted by raindammit:
Maybe this thread will live up to its name afterall runoff! wink I hope its a strong one though!!
I didn't say what year laugh

#494486 - 17/01/2007 16:20 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
The BoM in this week's tropical climate note seemed to be saying that the current MJO event should be finished in the next week or so, and due to its length the next event might be delayed a little until towards mid-February. But since that MJO event seems to already died, it appears all may be on cue for the next active phase to affect us a little earlier, around the beginning of Februry. I don't know what effect that may have on el nino, but since it seems to be on its way out anyway, all the news may be good.
Quote from tropical climate note:
"This current active burst period of tropical weather in Australia's north should generally wane over the next week or so. If the recent 30-day periodicity of the MJO were to persist, the next active phase over northern Australia would begin around early February. However this current burst, with its very pronounced convective signature over the maritime continent, remains further west than recent previous events, allowing for the possibility that the next event may be delayed, perhaps closer to the middle of February."

#494487 - 17/01/2007 18:49 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
SOI has plummeted sharply frown
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

#494488 - 17/01/2007 18:59 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
The pressure is still quite low at Darwin, the reason for decline in the daily SOI being falling pressures in Tahiti, seems to be a low pressure system over there - hopefully, it moves away soon so the effect may be short-lived - the monthly SOI hasn't fallen much and the daily readings are not really useful indicators generally.

#494489 - 17/01/2007 19:31 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
havent seen this much cloud over the country for so many consecutive days in years! great stuff. The only downside to this is there isnt much rain under it all.. mainly along the NSW ranges where the storms are occuring and the typical monsoonal stuff. Some areas in WA and inland NT have had over 400mm in the last week going by the rain maps. But at least it shows that there is still any glimmer of hope out there for us and also a blanket put onto the whole global warming -> less cloud cover -> less rain for aust. in the short-term anyway. Historically widespread cloud cover is a sign of moisture and drought breaking rains in a not too distant future.. lets just hope that isnt a flop too!

#494490 - 17/01/2007 19:52 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
30 day SOI is only -3.93
90 day SOI is only -5.23

so its not that bad smile

#494491 - 17/01/2007 22:17 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Johnoo Offline

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Originally posted by John 30:
Hiya Bokkey. Was wondering do you have a link to this?
Cheers thanks Bokkey for the charts of the subsuface water smile


#494492 - 17/01/2007 22:55 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i think this thread has really run its course and its outdated. its obvious we arent heading into a weak la nina.
it has a been an intresting topic to say the least, an unfortunate move into a strong elnino. so i will close this thread,
please feel free to create a new thread on the 2007 prospects in the Pacific.
thanks Mick
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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