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#494465 - 11/01/2007 14:02 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
I noticed that rossby wave that runoff mentioned a few posts ago is having an effect in absorbing those westerlies originating from the MJO, the trade winds are also starting to increase from the eastern pacific as well. The only question is has the MJO stopped doing its job in the western pacific in terms of the WWBs. If it has, we're looking good for now and i wouldnt rule out a weak lanina by March/april given the current trend continues. But even if we did get a lanina by then theres no guarantee we'll see any drought-breaking rain or any rain for that matter seeing that ENSO is hardly an indicator for our climate nowadays.

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#494466 - 11/01/2007 14:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
I would be suprised if we get any La nina's this year Bokkey but would love mother nature to prove me wrong.
I hope the warming up of the coral sea pays off soon pity the Eastern Indian ocean is cooling down just as rapidily I guess i'm not suprised :rolleyes: too much to ask for both oceans/seas to be warm at the same time nowadays.

John.

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#494467 - 11/01/2007 17:14 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
MJO has stagnated and weakened over eastern tropical Australia, though from Sat pic it seems like it still extends back over NE WA and NT mainly causing an almost broken monsoon trough in some areas.

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#494468 - 13/01/2007 15:23 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
trade winds are winning so far smile . the only westerly wind along the equator is west of and near 130E, while the stronger easterlies (in the range of 10-25kts) prevail east of and near 180E. The cross equatorial flow is keeping those danger winds to the south where they cant cause any problems.

Looking at that spider web graph now it seems the MJO has re-strengthened again.. hope it breaks down before reaching phases 7 and 8.

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#494469 - 14/01/2007 10:55 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
The upper air is a lot cooler at lower levels above the UK. As is the lower air. Hence the feed off the warm waters falls as snow. I don't believe Elnino has much if any effect on that part of the world.
Just had a quick look at the 500hPa and 850hPa charts on here and yes that looks to be true, as you would expect really given a difference of 25 or so degrees of latitude. The 584DM line is covering all of Australia at the moment with 500hPa temps up to between 0 and -2C in southern Aus. That is pretty warm for that high up! At midday on the 10th August 2003 (When the UK record of 38.1C was set) the 500hPa temps were around -10C with the a 1000-500hPa thickness around 580DM and a 850hPa temp just over 20C. Reanalysis Image here Not sure about comparing winters, we can get 850hPa temps down to maybe a little lower than -10C around Scotland with 500hPa temps down past -40C (Allowing polar lows to form). Not got a source to easily compare with Aus.

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Sydneys water temps have nothing to do with el nino, its the NE'lys causing upwellings and something called Ekman shift. Theres a thread regarding that in the General weather section.
There is more on Ekman Transport here .

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#494470 - 14/01/2007 12:55 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
Thanx for that P.K but now im confused. That article talks about the ekman transport and the winds are "away" from the coast, whereas here they are onshore. Maybe its got something to do with the northern and southern hemisphere differences with the coriolis effect especially etc. Because its understandable that winds blowing away from the coast would push those warmer waters away and allow the upwelling, but i dont get how onshore winds can do that confused

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#494471 - 15/01/2007 18:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays

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#494472 - 15/01/2007 18:43 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
some POAMA runs have jumped dramatically over the last couple of days and are progging the pacific to undergo cooling as early as late this month and one or two of them keep on the -0.5C line right through autumn. Hopefully the other runs fall in line

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#494473 - 15/01/2007 22:11 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Hiya Bokkey. Was wondering do you have a link to this?

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#494474 - 16/01/2007 17:40 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
john: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

heres the latest subsurface map from the bom:



atm just worried about that new WWB winding up in the west that could spark a new kelvin wave and re-strengthening of the elnino. The cold patch looks reasonable any how..

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#494475 - 17/01/2007 00:38 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Bokkey I believe any wwb now will have little effect on sst's with such a large cold pool in play on the thermocline.

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#494476 - 17/01/2007 07:57 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
what is the WWB?

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#494477 - 17/01/2007 08:32 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Squid, WWB means "westerly wind burst". When those happen out in the Pacific, in late summer and autumn anyway, they play a part in the development of el nino events.
I also think that any WWB at the present time is probably unlikely to have much effect.

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#494478 - 17/01/2007 08:42 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
thanks for explaining that for me Rainy Night and i agree with you I would say to little too late as far as a renewed El Nino is concerned.

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#494479 - 17/01/2007 09:44 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
El Nino has started to weaken even more the anomality of Nino 3.4 this week was 0.83C. Nino 3.4 cooled by 0.09C this week

the 13 week data set is
Quote:
2006101620061022 0.87
2006102320061029 0.97
2006103020061105 0.91
2006110620061112 1.09
2006111320061119 1.28
2006112020061126 1.31
2006112720061203 1.25
2006120420061210 1.31
2006121120061217 1.17
2006121820061224 1.14
2006122520061231 1.06
2007010120070107 0.92
2007010820070114 0.83
thats a 13 week average of +1.09C

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#494480 - 17/01/2007 10:06 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
good keep it going laugh laugh

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#494481 - 17/01/2007 11:16 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
As Mark says the Nino 3.4 SSTAs are down yet again this week. More significantly the three month Nino 3.4 anomaly average has dropped this week for the first time since the cool neutral period in early 2006 peaked.

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#494482 - 17/01/2007 13:15 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html Note the warming of the nth coral sea. Things are looking up I feel.

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#494483 - 17/01/2007 13:25 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13039
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Maybe this thread will live up to its name afterall runoff! wink I hope its a strong one though!!
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#494484 - 17/01/2007 13:35 Re: I am backing another weak La nina
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5203
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Interesting to see that the current MJO seems to have died a death - currently not in any determinable phase - so I wonder if:

1: It will not run through phases 7-8 and help the decline in the El Nino
2: Start again and come back through Oz a lot earlier than first thought

Will be interesting to watch in the next few days to see what it does smile

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