Page 8 of 78 < 1 2 ... 6 7 8 9 10 ... 77 78 >
Topic Options
#515891 - 01/10/2007 12:22 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
first of all that article is based on 'what the pacific is doing' and that atm says nothing. look at the current SST anomalies for aust then look at the moisture and temp charts for the sfc, 850hpa and 700hpa and then look at this

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

Top
#515892 - 01/10/2007 12:32 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12998
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
What an insane statement ET!!! Really, this tops off a week of pessimistic posts. Its getting quite tiring really...
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

Top
#515893 - 01/10/2007 12:36 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
yeah, and bom's years of optimistic forecasts are not getting tiring? get over it

Top
#515894 - 01/10/2007 12:41 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
I hope you can walk on water ER, "cause I reckon that thin ice is melting! Global warming? laugh laugh

Top
#515895 - 01/10/2007 14:11 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Weathernut Offline
Member

Registered: 24/07/2002
Posts: 5207
Loc: Darwin, Northern Territory
Quote:
Originally posted by eternal rain:
yeah, and bom's years of optimistic forecasts are not getting tiring? get over it
ROFL Lame! Weather isn't ground hog day! Just think at how boring it would be! At the end of the day the BoM know more then what we/you may know since they have the Scientific data and resources.

Top
#515896 - 01/10/2007 15:02 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
inversion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2003
Posts: 530
Loc: Melbourne
Yes, agree. There are so many more dynamics involved and ENSO is not the be-all and end-all. What the current situation is showing is that we should not put all our eggs in the Pacific-ENSO basket!!

Top
#515897 - 01/10/2007 15:28 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
like has been mentioned in the ENSO thread this is not ENSO related, at least it doesnt look like it anyway..theres something else causing strong upwellings and colder than avg ocean temps on a major scale. if theyre predicting a good cyclone season then they must also be predicting the oceans to warm up significantly.. well i hope theyre right because tropical weather is almost impossible to predict no matter how many resources you have. neway enough rants from me

Top
#515898 - 01/10/2007 15:31 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Went looking for an article that WZ put up the other day but can't find it now anyway it mentioned there expecting rainfall chance to increase there more so than normal at start the wet season 55-60% of getting above average rain at least (which is from BOM) they mentioned by November/December there expecting the Ssts anomalies off the coast of NT (and QLD due to La nina) to be warmer than normal hence probably why the chances of cyclones & rainfall increasing for that time of the year according to WZ and BOM

Top
#515899 - 01/10/2007 16:30 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Weathernut Offline
Member

Registered: 24/07/2002
Posts: 5207
Loc: Darwin, Northern Territory
Quote:
Originally posted by eternal rain:
theres something else causing strong upwellings and colder than avg ocean temps on a major scale. if theyre predicting a good cyclone season then they must also be predicting the oceans to warm up significantly..
As far I know the waters off Darwin ATM are warmer then they where this time last year. I question tho how many years does the SST anomalies go by? Bit like a AWS. Longer it's been running the better , shorter it's useless.

Top
#515900 - 01/10/2007 18:20 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
mr lahey Offline
Member

Registered: 08/09/2007
Posts: 148
Loc: brisbane
if this is bordering on a la nina then id hate to see how dry the country looks when we are in a severe el nino.im going to give it another few weeks and if we havent seen a decent increase in moisture around the country then i can only come to one conclusion.

Top
#515901 - 01/10/2007 18:21 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
mr lahey Offline
Member

Registered: 08/09/2007
Posts: 148
Loc: brisbane
i was also going to book a trip to darwin for 2 weeks in late nov,but ill just wait and see.

Top
#515902 - 01/10/2007 20:57 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Ask the experts session here!
The plume of cloud and water vapour that is moving in from the Coral Sea in the last few hours, from the sat maps, looks like it is winding up into a tropical type upper level depression over the southern part of the Cape and seems to moving south very rapidly.
An upper level low is indicated in this area on the charts but they don't seem to predict the rapid southerly movement of the upper low.
It seems on the charts that the upper low is forecast to collapse by wednesday.
Any comments from the tropical experts on the future developments for this upper low and how far south will it come and what of the future for this plume, cloud and upper low?

Top
#515903 - 02/10/2007 19:13 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Thursday Afternoon shower. Min 24 Max 33
Friday Afternoon shower. Min 24 Max 33
Saturday Afternoon shower. Min 25 Max 33

Great to see this in this afternoons forecast, still a massive temperature inversion at the mid levels which is probably sticking around hence showers, due to likely small heights of cells, and not something more significant laugh

:cheers:

Top
#515904 - 03/10/2007 10:02 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
Driving to work today I saw in the far off distance to the WNW what looked like the top of a hazy pink storm tower. Radar confirmed it was, moving away in the Easterly steer.. strange place for a bit of random convergence but Im not complaining. Great to see something out there at least.. and as Chris says, the end of the week looks interesting!

Top
#515905 - 03/10/2007 10:41 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
hi guys,
great to see continued activity up there. certainly looks like things are gradually falling into place across the entire north atm. laugh
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
#515906 - 03/10/2007 14:38 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
bob the buildup Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2001
Posts: 1780
Loc: 5km N of Tully
Yeah Jacob, a couple of good looking cells just off the coast this morning. I`m guessing it was a weak gulf line moving through. Not quite enough moisture over land to kick anything off, but once it moved into the Timor Sea off they went.

Labelle cell already happening and the lightning tracker I`m looking at has some strikes in Arnhem Land to the west of Gove. Looks good for at least some sort of rainfall over the next 3 or 4 days......maybe even a thunderstorm

Top
#515907 - 04/10/2007 03:47 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Thanks to watching an incredible guitarists videos on youtube I am still up at this hour and just before I headed to bed I thought I will just have a squiz at radar given it is fairly moist atm. Lo and behold there are a line of showers forming 40-50km E and from the coast to about 50km inland laugh They should reach here at some stage in the next hour or two although looking outside I think some may form right overhead now.

:cheers:

Top
#515908 - 04/10/2007 10:08 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Good to see I can still pick it :rolleyes: Dunno if anyone got a local drop but none of the gauges got anything it seems. Sounding improving daily although steering winds weakened a bit. We just need a couple of more degrees DP on last nights sounding, and not a massive dryish area just, literally for the first few hundred metres, above the surface and we are in business. smile

:cheers:

Top
#515909 - 04/10/2007 11:25 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Chas Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 25/04/2001
Posts: 46
Loc: Jabiru NT
Very nice start to the day here in Jabiru.
Early Sc burnt of by 8am going straight into convective Cu by 9am. Up until today its been blue skys with the odd Cu forming arround noon.
DPs are still 21C at 1030am, hope to see a shower this afternoon.

Top
#515910 - 04/10/2007 13:38 Re: The Top End NT Buildup and Wet Season 2007/2008
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25309
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
hi chas,
great to hear from you, and i hope u get your wish smile
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

Top
Page 8 of 78 < 1 2 ... 6 7 8 9 10 ... 77 78 >


Who's Online
12 registered (Alex_96L, Eevo, quietskies, rhizome, martyface, terawatt, Kino, DMK, Raindammit, 3 invisible), 111 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Chris #3, Cloudwatcher, dave-tsv, GuyH, Joshg, Prettybub, s016230, Sprouts
Forum Stats
29700 Members
32 Forums
24005 Topics
1503011 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image