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#522143 - 26/03/2007 20:46 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
RyanCQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2007
Posts: 1262
Loc: Rockhampton Qld
now i wonder who we will al be thinking of having crazy theories about it doing a loop earlier on page 8??? LOL laugh laugh

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#522144 - 26/03/2007 20:53 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
As the advisory bulletin stated, the centre of this system has been difficult to locate ... and it's important to remember that it is still in its formative stages, and it is very common to see small changes of location of the centre of a tropical low which it is still is the process of organising itself. Even if it is doing a small loop, the eventual movement is still most likely to be SE as forecast. The very slow WNW movement in the advisory is different to what is stated in the Ocean Wind Warning, probably due to being taken from observations over a short time frame. In any event, we have to see it develop into a TC yet, and once that happens, it may get on the move again.

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#522145 - 26/03/2007 20:54 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
i think that it is going to be a pretty large system

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#522146 - 26/03/2007 21:56 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5182
Loc: Diamond Valley
Latest Dvorak analysis indicates that it's not far away now from being named. Indeed, latest IR loop is showing signs of that now familiar 'embryo' beginning to form:

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
1116 UTC 26 March 2007

Tropical Low

261033 UTC

12.9S 162.5E

Analysis based on: MTSAT-1R VIS/EIR imagery and Monterey web site

Latitude Detection Sum : 12

Longitude Detection Sum: 14

T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Data T based on 0.4 wrap and PT agrees as does MET. The Monterey SSMI pass and
the QuikScat pass show a tight circulation with increased banding and colder
tops. System going through a significant development phase and appears likely to
continue to develop.

The next bulletin will be issued by 261700 UTC.

WHR BRISBANE
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#522147 - 26/03/2007 23:04 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 988
Loc: Darwin NT
At 0830z NESDIS SAB had this at T3.0...
Quote:
WWPS20 KNES 260929
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT IRNIGHT
.
MARCH 26 2007 0833Z
.
13.1S 162.4E T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS 93P
.
PAST POSITIONS...12.5S 160.8E 25/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
12.3S 159.4E 25/0833Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...6-7/10 OF BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES. MET IS
2.5. FT OF 3.0 BASED ON BOTH DT AND PT.
Come on baby.

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#522148 - 26/03/2007 23:35 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Willoughby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/05/2003
Posts: 988
Loc: Darwin NT
On the southeastern periphery of the fridgid, tightening LLCC, big blowups are appearing & showing well on the latest TRMM pass.

Rain scan on 13F by TRMM,

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#522149 - 27/03/2007 06:43 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
RyanCQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2007
Posts: 1262
Loc: Rockhampton Qld
[img]http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65643.gif?1174936961999[/img]


if she can survive all this maybe she will hit australia as well as new caledonia (spelling)

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#522150 - 27/03/2007 06:57 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
there is now a thread open for TC becky

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=12;t=000526

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#522151 - 03/04/2007 20:23 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F [1004 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 176.5E AT
030600 UTC. SYSTEM SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER.
POSITION POOR. SYSTEM APPEARS SHEARED AS MAJOR CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
IS SHIFTED EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE
AXIS AND IN A STRONG WESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD
OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND INTO INCREASING SHEAR.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AND AGREES ON SOUTHEAST
TRACK BUT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

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#522152 - 04/04/2007 07:14 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
latest UKMET

12UTC 03.04.2007 15.3S 177.0E WEAK

00UTC 04.04.2007 17.2S 178.7E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.04.2007 18.7S 178.8E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.04.2007 20.2S 179.9E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.04.2007 22.0S 179.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.04.2007 26.1S 176.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.04.2007 29.3S 173.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.04.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

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#522153 - 04/04/2007 17:34 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
TD 14F became TC Cliff during the day. A weak system (equivalent to Cat. 1), he is moving SSE and affecting eastern parts of the Fiji Islands near the international dateline.

Warning from Fiji:
"GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 04/0716 UTC 2007 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2 SOUTH
179.4 WEST AT 040600 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.2S 179.4W AT 040600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.1S 179.4W AT 041800 UTC
AND NEAR 18.8S 179.4W AT 050600 UTC."

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#522154 - 04/04/2007 17:54 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8 SOUTH
179.6 WEST AT 040300 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR/VIS AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
60 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME IRGANISED WITH CLOUID BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
DVORAK BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT 3.0. PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW ALONG THE CVA REGION. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY UNDER LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SHEAR WHEN IT MOVES SOUTH. MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY
TRACK WITH INCREASING MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

FORECAST :
AT 12HRS VALID 041500 UTC NEAR 18.3S 179.3W MOV SSE 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 050300 UTC NEAR 19.9S 178.4W MOV SSE 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID 051500 UTC NEAR 22.2S 177.4W MOV SSE 13KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 060300 UTC NEAR 26.1S 174.2W MOV SE 18KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

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#522155 - 04/04/2007 17:55 Re: Next Pacific Islands Cyclone 06/07
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
CLIFF
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:11pm on Wednesday the 4th of April 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN VANUA LEVU,
TAVEUNI, NAITAUBA, YACATA, KANACEA, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, NAYAU AND
VATU VARA.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FOR FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN LAU
AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIFF CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 2
SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 KILOMETRES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TAVEUNI OR ABOUT 70 KILOMETRES NORTH OF CICIA AT 7P.M. TONIGHT.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP
TO 75 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 18
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 40
KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CICIA AT 6AM TOMORROW MORNING AND ABOUT
60 KILOMETRES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KABARA AT 6PM TOMORROW

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE
CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR EASTERN VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI, NAITAUBA, YACATA, KANACEA, VANUA
BALAVU, CICIA, NAYAU AND VATU VARA: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH AVERAGE WINDS OF 75 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR.

FLOODING, INCLUDING RAPID SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS
AFFECTED BY GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AROUND TIME OF
HIGH TIDE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.

FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP AND THE REST OF VANUA LEVU: EXPECT WINDS
INCREASING TO 65 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS TO 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING
INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP FRESH AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. FINE APART FROM AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWERS. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE WITHIN 60 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH
HIGH SEAS.
SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI WATERS.
ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.

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