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#524014 - 19/02/2007 02:13 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Was interesting to see a lot of activity, well comparably, around La Reunion Island including TC Rosa during the disappearance/neutral phase. Nice to see it speeding through phase 2 so hopefully we'll see something good at the end of the month. Quite a lot of cloud and convection on latest sat pic south of Myanmar and Malaysia atm.

This is probably the last chance for the wet to redeem itself in the NT as even if it goes back to 30 day return the next one will be right at the end of the wet wet in late March and we will be into the end of season storms. But we saw what happened last year and I am holding on to anything wink

:cheers:

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#524015 - 19/02/2007 08:40 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5355
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Quote:
Originally posted by zoso-wx:
Was interesting to see a lot of activity, well comparably, around La Reunion Island including TC Rosa during the disappearance/neutral phase. Nice to see it speeding through phase 2 so hopefully we'll see something good at the end of the month. Quite a lot of cloud and convection on latest sat pic south of Myanmar and Malaysia atm.

This is probably the last chance for the wet to redeem itself in the NT as even if it goes back to 30 day return the next one will be right at the end of the wet wet in late March and we will be into the end of season storms. But we saw what happened last year and I am holding on to anything wink

:cheers:
Remember Cat 5 Cyclone Monica formed on April 17th last year and became one of the most destructive cyclones ever to be seen in the southern oceans.
I guess the MJO has stuck to the Bom's forecast track, they did originally say it would return mid-late Feb.

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#524016 - 19/02/2007 09:11 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
yes the MJO is in phase 2 and racing towards phase 3 it would not suprise me for it to be in phase 3 tomorrow

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#524017 - 19/02/2007 19:41 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
Yes I do Pacman hence the last sentence of my last post smile . That was a one off I'd say, but even before that formed we had a decent April with around 200mm from knock em down storms and gulf lines earlier on in April. Think ex-TC Monica only dropped about 40mm on the Sunday here iirc. Bit of a let down as I was hoping for a good one, maybe not 360kmh good but high cat 3 at least just to experience it.

:cheers:

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#524018 - 19/02/2007 19:46 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
One off? April has seen many destructive cyclones over the years. Aivu for one. Nothing can be discounted. I would be prepared to take bets that March and April will be exceptionally wet for the eastern tropics this year.

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#524019 - 19/02/2007 20:04 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 626
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
One off? April has seen many destructive cyclones over the years. Aivu for one. Nothing can be discounted. I would be prepared to take bets that March and April will be exceptionally wet for the eastern tropics this year.
I would put money on that also runoff, we are in for some interesting few weeks ahead
_________________________
'Building a perpetual motion machine is easy - keeping the thing running is the hard bit"

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#524020 - 20/02/2007 02:05 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Mojo is pumping now, strengthening curve is very Steep, looking good for our last big burst of the wet season :cheers:

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#524021 - 20/02/2007 02:33 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Karratha Pilotdude Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/03/2006
Posts: 2569
Loc: Dusty Karratha
Does this mean that us WA folks will have our long awaited cyclones and not just silly litte things like Clare, we want ones like Larry lol make life a bit more intersting!!!

laugh

As long as it brings lots of rain and 2 days off work im a very happy man

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#524022 - 20/02/2007 07:38 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
MJO should be in phase 3 tomorrow it is looking like it is going to be a strong burst when it gets here

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#524023 - 20/02/2007 09:11 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
zoso-wx Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/09/2005
Posts: 644
Loc: Bakewell on the escarpment, st...
One off as in the strongest Cat 5 hitting Aust in recorded history. I am perfectly aware cyclones can occur in April!!! I agree that the late wet season could appease the lack of a wet season overall in the tropics so far

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSIRW.JPG -> some nice convection SW of Indonesia this morning

:cheers:

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#524024 - 20/02/2007 16:20 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Although, the monsoon trough is currently well north of Australia, this should change in the next few days, with the arrival of the MJO into phase 4.
The latest weekly tropical climate note out today looks promising:
"Over the last week or so tropical convection over the central Pacific region has diminished, while widespread areas of convection have increased in the Indian Ocean, indicative of a renewed active phase of the MJO developing there. This is a typical prelude to an increase in monsoonal activity over northern Australia. Consequently, northern Australia and adjacent regions are likely to see tropical weather activity increase significantly over the next week or so, compared to the low levels of convection seen over most parts during recent weeks."

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#524025 - 20/02/2007 16:23 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
would be good if the MJO stalled in phase 4/5 and strengthened and didnt go beyond 6 but thats just wishful thinking :rolleyes:

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#524026 - 20/02/2007 16:44 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13341
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I like the 'increase significantly' bit laugh Lets hope the northern parts of WA and the NT benefit from this MJO also! They need it!!
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#524027 - 20/02/2007 16:53 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25447
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yes i am glad things are coming together again, i have dried out enough and need some more action please. u never know your luck die elnino its one of those seasons.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
Marach 2019 total - 310.6mm (192mm)
April 2019 total - 0.0mm (65.8mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1973.4mm (1129mm)

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#524028 - 21/02/2007 08:35 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it sure looks like that this MJO is gonna be a big one

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#524029 - 21/02/2007 08:59 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes Squid, despite the current graph, MJO is in phase three as of yesterday according to the latest report from Lexie Donald:

Quote:
The passage (Phase 4) of the MJO is imminent (Phase 3 as at 20th February). Compared to recent 30-35 day interval the MJO appears to have slowed to a more usual 40-50 day time frame. In the mean time Phases 4-5-6 are associated with enhanced probability of rainfall in many areas of Australia.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. The monsoon activity will increase (as compared with recent drier/break conditions) and another burst of monsoonal activity is likely. As the next passage of the MJO won't be until mid-April, I suspect this is the last MJO induced burst of monsoon activity for the 06-07 summer wet season.

Not all passages of the MJO result in an enhanced rainfall response, however the MJO is more likely to have an impact on Australian rainfall during Austral summer. Also fewer 'weak' MJO Index signals when Phase cannot be determined are recorded during summer.

Lexie Donald

Tuesday 20 February, 2007 2:47 PM
Let the good times roll! smile
_________________________
The original donut hole

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#524030 - 21/02/2007 09:30 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
i think we still could get a bit of it in mid april but lets see how this one goes

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#524031 - 21/02/2007 10:25 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Even if the monsoon trough is North of Australia in Mid April still high probability of cyclones forming within the monsoon trough so some areas can still get very wet.

John.

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#524032 - 21/02/2007 10:27 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
esp with la nina being in force by then

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#524033 - 22/02/2007 20:27 Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007
Madmax Offline
Member

Registered: 09/11/2006
Posts: 695
Mojo on its way to Phase 4 :cheers:

Now it appears to me that sometimes the Monsoon line drawn by the experts appears to fall half way between the actual area being affected by the monsoon ""like now for exanple"" frown . This kind of weather is not the average set of storms we pick up. It is the kind of weather we get when the experts say "oh the monsoon is coming but its not here yet"

Take GMSIR now as example it points the monsoon out to be much futher south.

And why does the moonsoon always have to be a connect the dots with the lows confused Is it not possible for the monsoon to be lower than the lows confused

Its apperas the NW wind regime that experts follow as and indicator can sometimes also appear confusing when they tell us we get a monsoon and all we get is a few measly showers confused confused

Anyway lets enjoy the monsoon when it gets here wink

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