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#532943 - 19/01/2007 06:50 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
the 2006/07 event looks to of peaked at around +1.1C

at relooking at marks post it looks like it was a weak to moderate el nino thats where i got the info from

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#532944 - 19/01/2007 14:31 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
Latest POAMA forecast (todays) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml



If you look closely you will see the past analysis line taking a nice dive which means you can just about discount the upper blue lines (latest forecasts) and keep an eye out on the runs predicting at least a neutral state for the rest of the year (given the trend continues and the next MJO doesnt interfere too much).

There are forecasts from the last 30 days in the archive section. If you follow them you will see that each day that goes by, the cooler the pacific is forecast to be. Ironically however we are in a good position now because the break-downs of elnino's usually bring the best relief rains whereas if we were lanina or neutral now heading into an elnino we would be in even more trouble.

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#532945 - 19/01/2007 14:46 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Agreed Bokkey. My gut says this wet will be one to remember for all the right reasons.

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#532946 - 20/01/2007 06:59 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12542
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
The SOI has been negative for the last 10 days now, the last 6 days above -20 (sitting at -35.3 currently). The 30 day average has fallen from -1.65 to -5.56. The 90 day average is creeping down as well. frown
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#532947 - 20/01/2007 22:20 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Floodhunter Offline
Member

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 292
Loc: Bowral NSW
I seem to recall reading Raindammit that the current monsoon low was affecting pressures around Darwin and artificially (so to speak) affecting the SOI and pulling it down. I'd not be too worried - the SSTs are doing the right thing and they are what counts!

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#532948 - 20/01/2007 22:46 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Actually, we want low pressures around Darwin to continue, those low pressures help to keep the SOI up into positive values, not pull it down.
The trouble at the moment is that is the pressures are even lower over Tahiti way, due to a depression over there, and that's what is stopping the SOI from rising into positive figures.
But you are right, it the SSTs doing the right thing that really counts.

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#532949 - 21/01/2007 09:39 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] well in that case it was a weak el nino
How so? I saw a peak of 2.79 degs. [/b]
the El Nino weekly peaks were

Nino 1: the week of October 23-29, 2006 (+1.21)
Nino 2: the week of October 23-29, 2006 (+1.62)
Nino 3: the weeks of November 20-26, 2006 (+1.14)
and December 4-10, 2006 (+1.14)

Nino 3.4: the weeks of November 20-26, 2006 (+1.31)
and December 4-10, 2006 (+1.31)

Nino 4: the week of November 13-19, 2006 (+1.35)

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#532950 - 21/01/2007 10:16 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
u probably saw a peak of 2.79 deg on the unisys sst anomaly map in the eastern pacific. I remember seeing it too.. but thats not the way these measurements work. It works by taking an average of the temps of the particular nino regions.

btw the MJO has restrengthened and is in phase 8.. weird confused . Despite this being a period where MJO has little effect im still worried of a new el nino forming in the weeks ahead. Not to mention that this last elnino formed in september (unusual time)

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#532951 - 21/01/2007 11:11 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
It is not really unusual to the MJO to re-strengthen after weakening and to reach Phase 8 - just hasn't been happening recently. Phase 8 is consistent with the development of the 2 or 3 tropical disturbances east of the date-line which have analysed by Fiji met office.
At least it is helpful is know that it is strong enough for the Phase to be determined, better than having it in an indeterminate state, so we can expect it will be in Phase 1 in a couple of days, and probably progress to Phase 4 in the first half of February.

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#532952 - 21/01/2007 11:17 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
it skiped form phase 6 to phase 8 thats odd but atleast it is on the move

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#532953 - 22/01/2007 11:00 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
the northern Cs appears to be warming up alot over the last few days

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#532954 - 22/01/2007 14:27 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Quote:
Originally posted by AussieMark79:
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
[b]
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] well in that case it was a weak el nino
How so? I saw a peak of 2.79 degs. [/b]
the El Nino weekly peaks were

Nino 1: the week of October 23-29, 2006 (+1.21)
Nino 2: the week of October 23-29, 2006 (+1.62)
Nino 3: the weeks of November 20-26, 2006 (+1.14)
and December 4-10, 2006 (+1.14)

Nino 3.4: the weeks of November 20-26, 2006 (+1.31)
and December 4-10, 2006 (+1.31)

Nino 4: the week of November 13-19, 2006 (+1.35) [/b]
I made no reference to Nino 3 or 4 and was talking about sea-surface temps. No matter how you cut the mustard it is sea surface temps that affact the climate. Stormsurf are also calling it a moderate event.

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#532955 - 22/01/2007 15:36 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
According to the latest subsurface map, the cold patch has thickened slightly from the last update before making its way to the surface albeit slowly. Good move by the POAMA forecast has the forecasted pacific average of -0.04C for March, down from -0.01C yesterday smile

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#532956 - 22/01/2007 16:08 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
Quote:
Originally posted by P.K.:
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
[b]
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] well in that case it was a weak el nino
How so? I saw a peak of 2.79 degs. [/b]
What for and when? None of the Nino indices have reached anywhere near that even in weekly values. [/b]
Read above

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#532957 - 22/01/2007 19:07 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
3 Month rainfall outlook comes out tomorrow Feb-April it is going to be intresting what it will show with the Coral sea warming up, El nino weakening, Indian ocean slightly warming up again off the NW coast after going through a slight cooling last 2 weeks or so & warm waters to the South and SE of Australia warmest it's been for few years I would say. Intresting times ahead guys.

John.

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#532958 - 22/01/2007 19:28 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
AussieMark79 Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 451
Loc: Lake Maquarie area, New South ...
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
Quote:
Originally posted by AussieMark79:
[b]
Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
[b]
quote:
Originally posted by squid:
well in that case it was a weak el nino
How so? I saw a peak of 2.79 degs. [/b]
the El Nino weekly peaks were

Nino 1: the week of October 23-29, 2006 (+1.21)
Nino 2: the week of October 23-29, 2006 (+1.62)
Nino 3: the weeks of November 20-26, 2006 (+1.14)
and December 4-10, 2006 (+1.14)

Nino 3.4: the weeks of November 20-26, 2006 (+1.31)
and December 4-10, 2006 (+1.31)

Nino 4: the week of November 13-19, 2006 (+1.35) [/b]
I made no reference to Nino 3 or 4 and was talking about sea-surface temps. No matter how you cut the mustard it is sea surface temps that affact the climate. Stormsurf are also calling it a moderate event.
the strength of the Event is based solely on the Nino 3.4 average in regards to SST data. it doesn't matter if there is a small patch of 2.79 degs anomalities its averaged out. no matter how u cut it this event was Weak maybe low end Moderate at best

El Ninos

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#532959 - 22/01/2007 23:42 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
P.K. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/08/2006
Posts: 641
Loc: Home of the Ashes
Latest weekly averages to 21/1/2007

Nino 1: +0.29C
Nino 2: +0.44C
Nino 3: +0.77C
Nino 3.4: +0.57 (Down from +0.83C last week meaning the 3 month average is now +1.06C)
Nino 4: +0.67C

So all Nino regions have fallen this week and purely in terms of a weekly figure have fallen below the El Nino threshold although of course the three month average hasn't fallen that much yet.

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#532960 - 22/01/2007 23:44 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
You need to take it up with stormsurf. They don't share your view!

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#532961 - 22/01/2007 23:47 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html Neither do these people.

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#532962 - 22/01/2007 23:49 Re: ENSO Discussion thread 2007
*Runoff* Offline
Member

Registered: 24/01/2005
Posts: 2209
Loc: Whitsundays

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