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#545632 - 07/01/2008 13:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Raindammit Offline
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Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12542
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
From (one of) the latest Coastal wind warnings:

'Synoptic Situation
AT 11am Monday Ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen was located well over land over Cape
York Peninsula, about 85 km east of Pormpuraaw and was moving slowly south.'
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#545633 - 07/01/2008 13:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Petar @ Sdny Offline
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Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 526
Loc: South West Sydney
I wouldn't be surprised that the BoM don't relocate the center of Ex-Helen again. Convection has been flaring and been consistent out in the GOC. I can't really see a LLCC on Cape York.

It is looking pretty interesting in the GOC, if the new center is out there, developing and easing atmospheric conditions are conducive for re-intensification
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#545634 - 07/01/2008 14:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
nitso Offline
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Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Petar shear is the limiting factor right now over the Gulf and this was why the system didn't redevelop. It's likely that it will begin to abate in the next 24 hours. The QLD BOM certainly hinting now at potential redevelopment.

"During Wednesday the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Helen are forecast to be
located about the SE Gulf of Carpentaria after drifting over Cape York Peninsula
during the next few days. There is a possibility that this system may re-develop
if its moves into open waters again."

That was from the latest midday extended outlook.

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#545635 - 07/01/2008 14:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
DJC Offline
Member

Registered: 22/10/2007
Posts: 5905
Loc: Townsville, Condon. 621mm PMR,...
Visible sat imagery does indicate the center being over the cape with an increasing N-NE flow moving over the coral sea. The convection has flared over the gulf, could be due to the better conditions and warm SST's or there could be another LLCC developing there. I am not sure. As nitso said, there was way too much shear and BoM it was no surprise that it did not redevelop. Conditions are improving.

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#545636 - 07/01/2008 14:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24720
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
bom brisbane on abc radio also mentioning a very small possibility of helen reforming if the low moves back over the SE GOC later this week, a very small chance though.
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#545637 - 07/01/2008 14:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 526
Loc: South West Sydney
Nitso, let me say your knowledge and expertise in these matters are extensive and great. I am a novice learning as I go. I enjoy reading your summaries. I am teaching myself as I go with each system and read up on weather information.
Therefore my read on issues may be out much of the time. Shear at the moment is not working for the system to regenerate. In your opinion, is it fair to say that a new center COULD develop closer to the flaring convection?

Sorry for this question. Just a point of interest.
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#545638 - 07/01/2008 14:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
DJC Offline
Member

Registered: 22/10/2007
Posts: 5905
Loc: Townsville, Condon. 621mm PMR,...
Yep, nitso is a legend on these forums. Expertise is second to none, apart from me. I WISH! laugh

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#545639 - 07/01/2008 14:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 526
Loc: South West Sydney
Taken from CIMSS, I don't know how old these model runs are but check this link out for model runs on Ex TC-Helen. Recent runs on Ex TC Helen

All models predicting a turn back into the GOC and a general southwest motion.
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#545640 - 07/01/2008 14:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
We should have it back in our forecasting region soon enough laugh :p

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#545641 - 07/01/2008 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Rainy Night Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Sorry, Jacob, I don't see any support from the models for that scenario! I think the closest I could see was a broad low over the Tennant Creek area (which may be a different low within the monsoon trough). Some models do have it over water again, but only briefly.

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#545642 - 07/01/2008 14:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
In jest of course wink Yeah it looks (TLAPS) to have itself established over Tennant Crack sometime in the next 3 days. We've had enough of her thanks laugh Parents finally got their power back this morning! eek

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#545643 - 07/01/2008 14:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
inversion Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2003
Posts: 529
Loc: Melbourne
UK Met has it moving to SE GOC and restrengthening over next few days.

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#545644 - 07/01/2008 16:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
DJC Offline
Member

Registered: 22/10/2007
Posts: 5905
Loc: Townsville, Condon. 621mm PMR,...
Good to see UKMET having it move east again late in the period as a much stronger system than it is now.GFS has it moving out into the Indian Ocean by early next week. And the models continue to say different things.

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#545645 - 07/01/2008 16:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Yeah, just about to say the same thing.. EX-Helen should move back into the southeast of GOC and she could redevelop then... BOM even sees this..

Jake

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#545646 - 07/01/2008 16:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12542
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I think the latest UKMET forecast refers to a different low, and not Ex-TC Helen. Notice that the starting co-ordinates are already in the the far SE GOC, just to the East of Mornington Is, whereas Ex-Helen is (on the animated sat image) about 140km east of Pormpuraaw and moving slowly East, although admittedly the new low is forecast to develop 3 days from now so it is possible that it IS the same low I guess. In fact with that forecast, this new low only moves about 150kmm in 4 days.
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#545647 - 07/01/2008 17:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
It seems to me that UKMET is almost certainly referring to the same low that was ex-TC Helen. The starting time is 48 hours from 10:00 am today, and the co-ordinates do not indicate too great a distance for it to move in that time. The explanation why it is missing from their foreceast in the meantime would be while it is over land it is below what UKMET regards as tropical storm strength and then regains that status once it is back over water.
I think however that the cyclone that GFS has west of Darwin at the end of their run could be a different system, due to distances involved, and because the model seems to hint at the current low weakening out over land and re-appearing as a weak low over the Coral Sea while another one develops and deepens further west.
In any event, I wouldn't trust GFS because of their recent poor performance ... and also because it seems more likely that development more be more likely to occur over the Coral Sea than the Indian Ocean in the current phase of the MJO (they do have some developments in the Coral Sea .. but not with much consistency).

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#545648 - 07/01/2008 18:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
CycloneJosh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/12/2007
Posts: 591
Loc: West Hollywood, California USA
Hey guys,

Dumb question: is the below outlook referring to Helen's remnant low, or is this a separate entity?

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:40 pm CST Monday 7 January 2008

A tropical low, 998 hPa, is situated over Cape York Peninsula in north
Queensland. The low is expected to be slow moving over land for a day or two,
but may move into the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday or Thursday.


The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days is
estimated to be:
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate
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#545649 - 07/01/2008 18:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
nitso Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/11/2006
Posts: 4236
Loc: Kirwan
Helen's remnants CJ

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#545650 - 07/01/2008 18:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
CycloneJosh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/12/2007
Posts: 591
Loc: West Hollywood, California USA
Quote:
Originally posted by nitso:
Helen's remnants CJ
Oh, OK-- thanks, nitso. smile
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#545651 - 07/01/2008 19:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Helen (SIO - Timor Sea) 4/1/08 - 5/1/08
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5167
Loc: Diamond Valley
If you believe GASP (otherwise known as the 'cone of silence' for it never works!) then the remnants of Helen end up spinning up off the central Queensland coast later this week.
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