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#55641 - 25/11/2003 21:28 Inigo Jones weather predictions
willum Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 25/11/2003
Posts: 3
Loc: Ridgelands
Does anyone have Inigo Jones weather almanac for 2003/2004. Apparantly he predicted the drought breaking rain in February 2003 for Central Queensland way back in the 1930's or something. He forecast the weather using the positions of the planets and stars. Does anyone know of any more of his predictions for the coming months?:-)

#55642 - 28/11/2003 02:06 Re: Inigo Jones weather predictions
Fine Elsewhere Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/09/2002
Posts: 1877
Loc: Albany.W.A.
Hi Willum, welcome to weatherzone from one of the few "older" members. May i suggest that you go into your profile details and turn on the facility that lets you get "Private Messages" thru Weather Zone. This will still let you keep your email address private as the message will come to your email thru WZ and the people sending you any messages can have their email address kept private wink
:wave: FE

#55643 - 01/12/2003 17:41 Re: Inigo Jones weather predictions
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3974
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I don't have Inigo Jones's predictions for 2003 to hand, but one of my colleagues, Neville Nicholls, compiled the following information on his forecasts last year, when it was a 'hot topic':

"There are rumours throughout inland eastern Australia that the legendary Inigo Jones (1872-1954) forecast the drought of 2002 many years ago. Jones believed that the alignments of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus caused variations in the sunspot numbers, which then affected rainfall in eastern Australia. So he could make very long-range forecasts of eastern Australian droughts, by knowing the future planetary alignments. Jones published a table of his predicted droughts for the period 1949-2008 in the National Motorist in January 1950. This table provides a unique opportunity to verify his long-range forecasts over many years. His table appears to refer to Queensland droughts, or to eastern Australian droughts. I have examined how his drought forecasts match observed seasonal rainfall averaged across Queensland.

Jones did forecast a “Dry Summer, Autumn and Winter” in 2001 and 2002. Rainfall was low in Queensland in each of these three seasons, but has continued to be low into spring 2002.

Jones failed to predict the severe 1965, 1982 and 1994 droughts (the three driest years of the second half of the 20th century). He predicted a “Minor Drought in Summer” in 1998-1999. This did not occur. He also predicted a “Dry Winter, Spring and Summer” for 1995 and 1996. Winter and spring 1995 were wet, although summer 1995/96 was dry as predicted. Jones correctly predicted a “Dry Summer “ for 1977/78 and a “Dry Spell” for 1979/80. He predicted a “Moderately Severe Drought” for 1957-1960. The first and last of these years were drier than normal, but 1958 and 1959 were slightly wetter than normal. He failed to predict drought for 1961, the driest year in the 1957-1961 sequence.

Perhaps the most intriguing of Jones’s predictions was for a “Severe Prolonged Drought” with “Social National Crises” for the period 1983 to 1992. There were only two years of drought (1986 and 1992) during this period. The mean 1983-1992 rainfall was below the long-term mean rainfall, but substantially higher than the rainfall in the 1963-1972 period. Jones did not identify the 1963-1972 period as a prolonged drought. Even the terms he used for the years in which he did predict droughts during the 1960s and early 1970s (“Rains Slightly Below Normal”, “Dry Spell”, “Minor Drought”, “Moderate Drought”) do not suggest a severe prolonged drought.

In summary, Inigo Jones did predict the 2001-2002 drought, but this was one of only a few occasions when his long-range predictions of drought have been correct. In particular he failed to predict the most severe (1965, 1982 and 1994) droughts and the extended dry period of the 1960s and early 1970s"

I've looked separately at the Jones forecasts for eastern Queensland and found that their success rate was no better than would be expected by chance.

#55644 - 01/12/2003 22:50 Re: Inigo Jones weather predictions
willum Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 25/11/2003
Posts: 3
Loc: Ridgelands
Thanks for your welcome Fine Elsewhere - I have done what you suggested. Excuse my ignorance, but I am new to forums, but getting the hang of it.

......Blair, thank you for your most informative response, I am very grateful. I have only been in Eastern Queensland since April 2001, having migrated from the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria. I had never heard of Inigo Jones until I moved here. Naturally I was impressed when the locals rumoured Inigo Jones predictions of the drought and the forecast of rain in February 2003 and hoped that someone might have some more predictions hidden away somewhere. Your detailed comparison of Inigo Jones predictions and actual weather pattern has answered my question. (Even if I was a little disappointed to read that Inigo Jones missed some significant droughts) frown Do you know if he predicted the 1991 floods in Rockhampton?

I'll just have to keep checking out weatherzone cool


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