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#600139 - 22/04/2006 18:47 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Afroboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/12/2005
Posts: 1719
Loc: Stratford, Cairns
I assume you are talking about the cloud convecting around 170 180. Can't really see much rotation there, maybe its being influenced by an easterly flow to give a clockwise rotation appearance
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#600140 - 22/04/2006 18:49 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
tekNique Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/01/2006
Posts: 178
Loc: Port Noarlunga, SA
i read these cyclone threads all the time but rarely post. Is it true that it got cat 6 or is that a BoM error? http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65811.shtml

I thought 5 the highest in Aus. confused

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#600141 - 22/04/2006 18:50 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Mangrovejack Offline
Member

Registered: 16/03/2006
Posts: 137
Loc: Darwin
Been tracking Monica over the past 8 hours using the cross hairs on the Gove 256 and 512 radar (Thanks Mick) and she has definitely moved NW and seems to be holding that line.
Also appears the detachment of the polward outflow channel is still yet to occur.
Really don't need her to get round 'the corner' as a 5 however the injestion of dry air from the HP moving accross the continent might help 'bring her to her knees' a little.
Monica on her knees ????? Bill Clinton will be frothing at the mouth !!!!

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#600142 - 22/04/2006 18:54 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Mangrovejack Offline
Member

Registered: 16/03/2006
Posts: 137
Loc: Darwin
Intersting that BOM and JTWC forecast maps now dovetail and have the system skirting the coast to the N of Gove and travelling throug the Wessel Isalnds.

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#600143 - 22/04/2006 18:56 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by nappy:
i read these cyclone threads all the time but rarely post. Is it true that it got cat 6 or is that a BoM error? http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65811.shtml

I thought 5 the highest in Aus. confused
If that is a 6 it is a BoM typo, there is no cat. 6 anywhere in the world!

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#600144 - 22/04/2006 19:02 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Mangrovejack Offline
Member

Registered: 16/03/2006
Posts: 137
Loc: Darwin
No it was an error, BOM are also covering the cricket and they got theor reprts mixed up !!!!

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#600145 - 22/04/2006 19:17 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by E-J:
...... Has anybody noticed the convective cloud mass to the east of Cape York in the coral sea. Animated infrared does show "banding" in the cloud and some clockwise rotation. There is also a big break in the cloud between it and Monica so the point made earlier that she would drag this cloud mass in is sort of not happening. What are your thoughts?
Hello E-J, the cloud to the east of Queensland is combination of convection around the monsoon trough and outflow from Monica. There is no organisation in that area, which is still rather too close to Monica and the windshear would probably be too high as well. Further east, there is some scattered convection east of 170E associated with the S Pacific Convergence Zone, but nothing really signficant at this time.
Cheers.

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#600146 - 22/04/2006 20:37 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 623
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
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#600147 - 22/04/2006 20:43 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
--- Offline
Member

Registered: 21/04/2006
Posts: 1633
Nah I think it just looks like a cat 6... (actually a cat 5)... unless I'm looking at a more up-to-date forecast map

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#600148 - 22/04/2006 20:46 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10061
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by nappy:
i read these cyclone threads all the time but rarely post. Is it true that it got cat 6 or is that a BoM error? http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65811.shtml

I thought 5 the highest in Aus. confused
It says a 5 on the tracking map, thought I have to admit that it does sort-of look like a 6, but it isn't a type-o.
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#600149 - 22/04/2006 20:54 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 03/12/2003
Posts: 2886
Loc: Wongabel Atherton Tablelands ,...
If you enlarge that image it is a 6 so I would imagine its a bom typeo


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#600150 - 22/04/2006 20:54 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by E-J:
Did you want to try that one again E-J?

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#600151 - 23/04/2006 20:51 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 623
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Prognosis chart shows a low forming at 155E. Interesting to see what happens
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#600152 - 23/04/2006 21:49 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 03/12/2003
Posts: 2886
Loc: Wongabel Atherton Tablelands ,...
Sorry EJ where are you looking??

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#600153 - 23/04/2006 22:08 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
supercell9 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2004
Posts: 224
Loc: Eltham ne Melbourne
Hi Guy's, The Gove radar is currently showing a magnificant image smile The system is expected to weaken slightly over the next 12 hours or so.Does any one think that it will really hit Darwin with a vengence?
I sure hope not!

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#600154 - 23/04/2006 22:23 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Indigo Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 07/04/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Cairns QLD
Excellent image, supercell9.
For the record, I predict that Monica will weaken to a 4 when it crosses the Coburg Peninsula, then reintensify to a 5 before skimming Darwin.

But I hope I'm very very wrong!

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#600155 - 23/04/2006 22:28 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Rainy Night Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2004
Posts: 4267
Loc: Jindalee, Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by Indigo:
Excellent image, supercell9.
For the record, I predict that Monica will weaken to a 4 when it crosses the Coburg Peninsula, then reintensify to a 5 before skimming Darwin.

But I hope I'm very very wrong!
Sorry, but why don't you post this in Tropical Cyclone Monica topic? - that's where everyone is, and you are more likely to get a reply.

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#600156 - 24/04/2006 10:18 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
E-J Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2006
Posts: 623
Loc: Innisfail (Mourilyan)
Quote:
Originally posted by Storm:
Sorry EJ where are you looking??
NAH SORRY DAY BEFORE DID. NOT THERE NOW

I was looking at the LAPS 850hPa chart
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#600157 - 29/04/2006 16:00 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5165
Loc: Diamond Valley
I know it probably seems patently absurd to post on this thread the day before the season officially ends, but the following extract from the latest Queensland extended forecast has a recent familiar ring to it:

" . . . A weak tropical low is
expected to move west near Torres Strait during Sunday, producing heavier
showers and thunderstorms over northern Cape York Peninsula."

Now, this is almost word for word what was originally said about a low a few weeks ago that turned out to be one "Monica". Just making the observation. No cause for alarm at this stage. The only model that seems to making a fuss about this low is GFS, which has it moving SE and causing some mischief near New Caledonia later this week.

EC and the BoM have it moving west across the Torres Straight. Although EC, at this stage has it drifting across the GoC (Like pre Monica 'weak tropical low' was suppose to benignly do) and then into the Afafura Sea later in the week.

Watch this space . . . it's been a bizzare season - maybe a postscript is yet to be writ.
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#600158 - 29/04/2006 18:38 Re: Possible Next QLD Cyclone
Storm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 03/12/2003
Posts: 2886
Loc: Wongabel Atherton Tablelands ,...
Will be watching IW, like you said its been a bizzare season, and we should never think that it couldn't happen !

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