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#63938 - 16/08/2009 09:21 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6315
Loc: Near Yeppoon
Well desertstorm, the observations were here I think because Adelaide was getting a temperature that was more of a Spring temp than a Winter temp.

So then. What are the predictions for the southern states for spring and Summer as well as the non southern states. in particular.

1. SW WA
2. South Australia and Adelaide
3. Victoria and Melbourne
4. Canberra and ACT
5. Hobart and TAS
6. Sydney and NSW
7. Brisbane and Qld.

?
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#63939 - 16/08/2009 09:31 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
SW WA will be cooler and wetter than average. The other states will be hot hot hot, particularly #6 and #7.

Basically, a continuation of the patterns we see now. Spring will produce widespread fires in eastern NSW and southern QLD.

You've left out Darwin and the NT (as well as northern WA), but I think the tropical weather forum discusses those in detail.

My predictions are based on a combination of gut feel and the law of skewed averages, plus the weak El Nino.

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#63940 - 16/08/2009 19:47 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
I reckon VIC will be mild and wet with some very warm to hot days on the odd occasion.

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#63941 - 16/08/2009 19:53 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
I think we will start spring warm, then have some cool temps heading into December, then the warmth will arrive in january, but nothing to intense, until February where there will be another summer heatwave like last year, however the heat this upcoming summer will last into March with record breaking March temps.

All just gut feeling!

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#63942 - 16/08/2009 20:03 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8323
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
the general rule implies a prolonged westerly pattern usually gets reversed to easterly in 1-2 weeks so the timing of the next wet spell could be just in time for spring.. in aug '06 we had a similar warm W'ly pattern to now which was followed by a ripper ECL at the start of sept and gave syd its wettest sept day in over 100 years.

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#63943 - 16/08/2009 20:28 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
The general rule is westerly until about the middle of October for eastern NSW. I'm sorry to say that you'll sooner see snow in Sydney than an ECL!

Still, it can't hurt to dream a little- I think we're stuck with this warm/hot dry pattern for a while yet myself.

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#63944 - 16/08/2009 22:02 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
ThunderstormZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/05/2009
Posts: 455
Loc: blackbutt - illawarra - NSW,
well now that this system is done and dusted lets focuss on this upcoming one. looks asif friday will be just as hot as today with 850 temps around 13-14C and the weekend looking very warm also however the hotter air looks to pass north of sydney

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#63945 - 17/08/2009 07:43 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Looks to me like a change of weather patterns is occurring soon, for much of the month to the end of August 2009 and on for a period into September 2009...Get out the winter woolies again and prepare for some rains, from what I can see anyway folks.

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#63946 - 17/08/2009 08:20 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2678
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
How do you know this BD? All the models i've been looking at are pointing to the same old boring rubbish we've been seeing for the last month. frown

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#63947 - 17/08/2009 08:59 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8323
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
agreed, even the models seem to be indicating a steady shift toward the end of their runs with the ridges returning to the south so easterlies with the odd flood event for the coast over the next month or 2

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#63948 - 17/08/2009 09:03 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
Quote:
Originally posted by eternal-rain:
agreed, even the models are indicating a shift at the end with the ridges returning to the south so easterlies with the odd flood event for the coast over the next month or 2
This is just as bad for the snowfields as a week of NW'lys. However, it would be nice to see some moisture around again, but we can't expect it to happen before October imo. If we do see a shift to onshore patterns, then the abnormal heat could amplify any rain/storm events.

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#63949 - 17/08/2009 09:15 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5053
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Quote:
Originally posted by eternal-rain:
agreed, even the models seem to be indicating a steady shift toward the end of their runs with the ridges returning to the south so easterlies with the odd flood event for the coast over the next month or 2
Anything to back this up ER? Colder for me usually means more rain down S and less on the E coast...And for me I can't see that much evidence of flood events coming up on the E coast...Particularly at this time of year...Happy to be wrong but suggesting upcoming floods is pretty strong and I personally can't see the evidence to back it up.

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#63950 - 17/08/2009 11:02 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6315
Loc: Near Yeppoon
Quote:
Originally posted by eternal-rain:
agreed, even the models seem to be indicating a steady shift toward the end of their runs with the ridges returning to the south so easterlies with the odd flood event for the coast over the next month or 2
Pardon my lack of weather knowledge but does ridges returning to the south mean high pressure systems going to the south? That would mean a dry spring here and be the opposite of what is currently predicted (wet spring for sw wa) confused
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#63951 - 17/08/2009 11:20 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
There appears to be a major change of long wave pattern with a major long wave trough moving across us in the next few weeks that is what I mean for SA/VIC and NSW that is mainly.

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#63952 - 17/08/2009 11:27 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
It is shown by a strong high developing well west of WA early next week that should allow (finally) the SW wind pattern to dominate more SE Australia by mid next week rather being stuck in N/NW/W winds all the time which has been the case for most of us this Winter.

Apparently August is running at the hottest ever (since records began) for Australia overall as we stand at the moment

June was the warmest ever for the Southern hemisphere as well records keep on tumbling.

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#63953 - 17/08/2009 11:34 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8323
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Sounds good BD as this should coincide with a strong MJO signal as well in a few weeks time and an unusually warm sst pattern around the country

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#63954 - 17/08/2009 16:01 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
ThunderstormZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/05/2009
Posts: 455
Loc: blackbutt - illawarra - NSW,
how do you know if there's gonna be high cloud? do you look at the 700hpa humidity.

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#63955 - 17/08/2009 16:03 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
High cloud (cirrus) is up at 20,000ft plus TSZ, 700 hpa is only 10,000ft up! 700hpa is to look for middle level cloud. 500hpa is 18,500ft, 400hpa is 24,000ft and 300hpa is 30,000ft.
Not sure if there are readily available humidity charts for those levels. Could look at Upper Level Radiosonde daily traces for various sites.

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#63956 - 17/08/2009 16:09 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA

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#63957 - 17/08/2009 16:09 Re: Predictions for spring and summer 2009-10
ThunderstormZ Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/05/2009
Posts: 455
Loc: blackbutt - illawarra - NSW,
kk thx BD

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