Hey I didnt say that, how come it says my name? Gremlins again.

My memory has Alby at about 3rd or 4th April?

Maybe blue skies is referring to descending stable air rather than heat "coming down" which it doesnt do as far as I understand.

This certainly is a very warm summer but its not alone in that respect which I think was the original point being made. Some interesting progs for Perth and SW re cyclone remnants tracking down the inland side of the coast and GFS has an even more zany prog in its long term story telling.

Couple of questions...this monsoon has been rather weak relative to other monsoons so far across northern WA, and the monsoon is not an unusual season, so why does that make this year different, as in more intense heat in Perth, im losing the connection there? Also the sun sits there and heats the Earth the same pretty much each year with close to the same intensity at each location, so why does cloud over northern Australia then make the inland areas heat more? If the Sun is in its same position at this time last year. Why are some places in the south not having above average temperatures (eg Albany was 1.1c lower than its average in January)? Not quite sure if the atmosphere works with heat going up (air cools as it goes up) and comes perfectly down over Perth. Something with thermodynamics does not quite make sense there. Just a couple of things I thought others might want to think about... [/QUOTE]

I've been wondering the same thing, but before I go too far I will say some of what is above is a rephrasing of what I understood from a blog. There must be more factors involved that are not obvious, and I've been wondering what they are too. If you look at past heat waves, hot summers and the like, and El Nino year is just as likely to result in a hot summer as well. To my experience an El Nino summer will see at least two fairly intense heatwaves, but rarely sustained heat like we are getting this year. 1978, the hottest summer on record, was also similar to this year, but it wasn't an la Nina year. If you look at the rainfall in the SWLD during la Nina years ( see here: Rainfall During la Nina Years ) , there is little correlation to the la Nina - so to me there must be more factors that have to combine to result in increased rainfall down here. Also there is no correlation between la Ninas and increased cyclone activity on the NW shelf.

The question I would most like answered at the moment is not why it is hot, but why this hot pattern is persisting, as it seems almost stuck in the same place. The movement of the MJO has does little to change things down south here and the west coast heat trough has been a permanent feature for weeks now. Why is nothing moving? From what I've been able to read it may be something more global that is either not well understood or far more technical than most of us go into.

I feel a bit guilty that La Nina, which is giving us here in the east a desperately needed respite from 8+ years of record-shattering dryness and heat, is indirectly causing west coasters to suffer instead

But really, this is the first tolerable summer for me in a long time. I hate the heat (anything above 25 C!). In Canberra we've had only 1 "hot" week (there was a 6 day stretch where highs were 34-36 in early January). Other than that we've had cool days here. Overnight lows have been normal or a bit above normal though.

May I ask - did the El Ninos of the first half of this decade produce the opposite effect for Perth? I.e. cooler summers in the west, but dryness in the east?

No, El Nino usually brings hot and dry summers to Perth, coupled with the preceding winter being dry and cold (cold because there is less cloud). If you take December into account, which was quite cool and wet, we haven't done that badly in the rainfall dept, its just the consistent heat with no breaks that are getting us down.

Don't feel guilty, some locals have been going "Now this is a real Perth summer, like we used to have them back when I was a kid" so if anything things have gone back to normal.

wow 32 on friday.... a bit cooler

Forecast for Wednesday
Very hot. Chance of a thundery shower but expect predominately fine weather.
Fresh and gusty NE winds easing in the afternoon.

Precis: Very hot.
City: Min 22 Max 37

Thursday Very hot. Min 23 Max 38


Saturday Very hot. Min 22 Max 38
Sunday Very hot. Min 23 Max 39
Monday Very hot. Min 23 Max 37


looks like we have to wait until tuesday for the pleasant 29 to arrive....

29 is mild compared to 38 degrees. Yuck.

here is the updated forecast beofre it gets released...

Forecast for Wednesday
Fine and very hot. Fresh and gusty E/NE winds easing in the afternoon.

Precis: Fine, hot.
City: Max 37
Mandurah: Max 35
UV Index: 11 [Extreme] UV Alert from 9:40 to 17:20
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: VERY HIGH
Hills: VERY HIGH

Forecast for Thursday
Fine and very hot before a humid change around noon. Moderate to fresh NE/N'ly
winds shifting moderate NW/SW early afternoon and tending fresh SW later.

Precis: Very hot.
City: Min 22 Max 37
Mandurah: Min 22 Max 33

Friday Fine. Min 21 Max 31
Saturday Fine, hot. Min 22 Max 35
Sunday Fine. Min 21 Max 33
Monday Fine. Min 18 Max 28
Tuesday Fine. Min 18 Max 27


so looks like monday will be 28 now not 38 and some cooler weather to follow

also 31 tomorrow... though maybe humid

37+ today though

One could say that I believe, tho the weathern patterns arent so rigid in El nino. Remember 2 summers ago when WA kept gettings highs that sat out in the indian ocean, Perth had SWer's for ages and it was a very cool summer.

Like they say this pattern now for La nina is very common wet in the east, cool and dry in the south, hot over west. Its been pretty mild here in SA.

another hot one here in perth today .... since sunday it has been the same 36 degrees or so each day!

hopefully tomorrow is the last of these 37 days for a while ....then sth australia can have it

Tuesday Fine. Min 16 Max 26
Wednesday Fine. Min 16 Max 26


hope these cooler days and nights eventuate.. i am sick of these qld style warm nights.

Perth's hot February lingers on
Brett Dutschke, Wednesday February 13, 2008 - 18:00 EDT
Perth residents have experienced their 10th day of 35 degrees or hotter this month, the first time this has happened in February in nine years, according to weatherzone.com.au.

Tomorrow is almost certain to be Perth's 11th day above 35 this month before a cooler change arrives late in the day.

The next chance of 35 degrees or hotter is on Saturday when winds shift easterly again.

Beyond Saturday winds will turn more southerly and extra cloud may also move in from the north, which will combine to keep temperatures closer to the average of 31 degrees.

- Weatherzone


the ocf is going for 26mm next week plus 6mm the next day so lookin good

Heads up for some very heavy rain around the WA goldfields early/mid next week, could see some localised flooding, basically models are progging a LWT to link up with ex TC Nicholas over that region.

I understand that the sub-tropic ridge has a lot to do with Perth's hot climate which appears to occur in lower latitudes than that on the east coast.
Do you know why?
Also how far up the coast fir the dry heat to be replaced by the humid heat? I guess fir this ti happen, winds would have to be more from the W-NW
rather than E/N

well we got to 30.5 today... not 37!!!

and the humid change came winds are now from the w/nw and humidity now 65 percent or higher

the bom has again downgraded temps for the next 10 days and it looks like some cool weather is finally on the way. 14 at night !!!

the ocf is not going for any rain next week now

well the bom has perth with 26 or 27 for the rest of the week.

yet weatherzone on the synoptic maps says next weekend perth will be hot

ocf going for 20mm or so at the end of next week.

i hope this mild weather stays with us for more than a couple of days.

Sorry I didn't reply earlier, but I don't think I have any answers for these questions. Ocean currents perhaps? Trade winds?

Canarvon, on the west side of the Pilbara, is often more like the lower west coast, although to my mind they live in an in between region. It's not uncommon for them to pick up some rain from cold fronts in winter. The humid heat starts a little further up on the NW cape.

***********'
On the Perth side, this week is looking great, with temps in the high twenties, maybe just getting over 30. It will be nice to able to cool the house off before the next blast of heat.

some more cool weather today with 26 recorded 14.7 at night

going to be 33 or so next week. no temps of 35 + yet.

and looks like we may go back to the 50 days without rain pattern again.

Damp and cold across inland WA
Brett Dutschke, Thursday February 21, 2008 - 14:32 EDT
A large area of Western Australia has been blanketed by rain-cloud from Cyclone Nicholas for the second day running, the coldest and wettest on record for some, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The Gascoyne, Central West, Central Wheat Belt, Goldfields and Eucla have been affected the most, where daytime temperatures have been 10 to 20 degrees below average.

Murchison in the Gascoyne had 143 millimetres of rain, a 20 year record for a daily total and more rain than they had in all of 2007.

Kalgoorlie has had three consecutive days where the temperature has failed to exceed 15 degrees, the first summertime occurrence in 65 years of records. They have also recorded about 50mm of rain in this time.

The bulk of this rain-cloud will clear on Friday allowing sunshine and near normal temperatures to return.

Showers and storms may redevelop next week as a low pressure trough reforms.thats a bit cold for me,great rainfalls out there

Gee, they'd be happy out there some of those places that got 100mm plus and Kalgoorlie getting some good rain, will really freshen things up out there.

yes it is good andrew,just a shame that my mums cattle station is missing out.just a little too north.well out there you win some an lose some.

nothing exciting again perth wise for weather....

27.6 today with 20 percent humidity.

might be heading for that 50 day without rain record again.

wow brisbane with 36?? is that a dry or humid 36?
perth will get 36 on tuesday or monday.

the bom has possible shower next week... but i reckon nothing will eventuate.

anyway... have had jan feb's and march's rainfall all in one day a few weeks back so not doing too bad.