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#660157 - 24/09/2007 14:54 Picture on today's SMH site
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
This just popped up on the SMH site, about Sydney storms. The picture though is amazing:

Sydney Morning Herald Storm Story

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#660158 - 24/09/2007 17:00 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
up to 100 severe storms? who writes this stuff? :rofl: :rolleyes:

thats an awesome pic btw, shame its a bit blury though.

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#660159 - 24/09/2007 18:17 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
100 Severe Storms throughout NSW? I'd have thought that would be a very modest estimate. If you counted individual severe storms (esp up near the ranges) Im sure you'd be much closer to 200 or more.. Locally (inside of 60km) our BOM has made a media release and educational campaign warning of 50 severe storms per year, again probably fairly low estimation..

When you're talking the whole state of NSW, Id be thinking a few more than 200 cool

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#660160 - 24/09/2007 19:43 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
eternal rain Offline
Member

Registered: 10/07/2004
Posts: 5685
Loc: the great sydney desert
yeah but thats like saying sydney is expected to record 1220mm of rain next year because thats the average. has it happened? yeah only twice in like the last 15 years. it just sounds overhyped especially when they forecast the same thing ('big storms') every season. and 100 is a pretty big number when your talking severe storms.. i wouldve thought the average would be about 40 or 50 and we hear about 5-10 major damage stories. and yes im talking all of NSW not just sydney

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#660161 - 24/09/2007 22:02 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
If it doesn't happen in Sydney, it just didn't happen.

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#660162 - 25/09/2007 00:20 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
ant Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2002
Posts: 9063
Loc: Overlooking ACT at 848m
I dunno who this Nick Moir is, but he gets some stunning storm shots. he got that cloud, and now they've put another picture into that story:
wow. Amazing shot

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#660163 - 25/09/2007 02:17 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
Though ER, I'd argue that NSW is a vast expanse, and if you watched radar and some of those rogue cells scooting around unpopulated areas, you'd be able to draw a pretty clear conclusion as to what was happening underneath them. A severe storm outside of any populated area is pushing it to get into the news.. Most of those things just leave damage trails across peoples properties, farms and bushland. If anyone sees the damage at all that is.

The news shouldn't be a tool in counting severe storms at all.. A tornado in Queensland ripped a huge path through a pine forest plantation last year, the power was incredible, but it wasn't really spoken about much outside the local area.. (stanthorpe if I recall correctly) but a tiny hailstorm that dents a few expensive cars, or sinks two costly yachts would get much more coverage.

My point.. NSW is huge, watch radar one season and watch those things in no-mans-land knowing that you'll never hear about what they did in the local rag.

I agree though with the weather hype thing.. we get it here with the 'Huge cyclone season predicted' every single year.. you learn to just switch off.. lol laugh

Can't say Im impressed by that photo though, over exposed and blurry.. if you want to see some great sydney shots..

Look here : http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/

:cheers:

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#660164 - 25/09/2007 06:37 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
NSW would easily get in excess of 100 severe storms a year...I agree with Jacob, this is a very consevative estimate. Many days have several severe storms (sometimes 10-15 cells on a day are severe, and then you have large squall lines which are technically many storm cells together).

Severe storms happen more than you think right across the country. Low population density and poor reporting. Classic example just yesterday the BoM said the Allora hailstorm wasn't severe - had to send an email to the guys at severe weather with some photos of roads/fields covered in 1.5-2.5cm hail (stones up to 3cm)! Got a quick response back thanking me as they weren't aware of the reports!

The storm wasn't too disimilar to the one that put Brisbane in chaos back in May 2005...yet one made headlines across Australia and the other got a brief mention Sunrise/Ch7 Brisbane only because I supplied them with footage/photos...

One thing I've often joked about is that in early 2000 there'll be a huge increase in severe thunderstorm reports as that's when ASWA got into full swing and really began reporting information!

AC
_________________________
Weatherwatch www.weatherwatch.net.au
Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#660165 - 25/09/2007 07:49 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
Michael Bath Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 20/06/2001
Posts: 2447
Loc: McLeans Ridges, Northern River...
Nick Moir is a photographer employed by the SMH.

I'm pretty sure the 100 is referring to the average number of storm spotter reports they get - not how many severe storms in total there would be in NSW. They have a similar SES/BoM media story every year at the beginning of the severe storm season.

Regards, Michael

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#660166 - 25/09/2007 09:45 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
Habs Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/03/2005
Posts: 1109
Loc: Blacktown
nick moir is a stunning photographer and someone ive looked up to for years, but i dont think ill ever quiet match what he can do...

the lightning shot may be blurry but no doubt that is the shot the editors wanted for the story.. probably the apparant thickness of the bolt is what they wanted.. "wow look how fat it is, must be the size of a house!" when we all know thats not actually what they are like...

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#660167 - 25/09/2007 16:51 Re: Picture on today's SMH site
D_a_n Offline
Member

Registered: 31/01/2007
Posts: 814
Loc: Malabar
Sorry but slightly out of topic, i think its a crap photo, i have seen hundreds better from members on this site, every outbreak.....it looks like a camera phone job.....

"Bureau expects similar season to last few".......so no storms for Sydney then frown

Dan

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