Yeah but by 3am its gonna be close to 0C at the metro site and well below at Jandakot, which is already down to 2.8C now, perth is 5.3C.

Perth Airport's -0.8 on Saturday morning was a July record, the old record was -0.2C. So did Pearce who got down to -1.0C, beating it's old July record of -0.5C

The city site just missed out, going down to 0.2, the July record being 0.0C as did Jandakot, which got down to -2.3C, its July record is -2.8C.

3.8C in the city at the moment as of 11pm Saturday night. I dont think it will get near the record as winds should start to pick up in the next few hours, but will be interesting to see when that does happen.

Mike H.

My esperance prediction. Strong winds gust to 85km/h @ 7:30pm and about 3mm of rain. The wind will swing wnw behind the front and there will unfortunately be no cold southerly behind it and that will be the total of the rainfall from this system for us down here.

Except for the slightly stronger wind than normal, this sytstem is not going to be anything out of the ordinary for us

Tim S you might be right re the time difference between the capes and perth because of the stand up nature of the system but I will stick with it because I don't think that it is moving as fast as a system that is peaking or going to peak. It is sliding (unlike the one last year that peaked right onthe coast)and starting to slow up its eastwards component. This is why I am also predicting more rainfall than what I would normally predict for the west coast and that less rainfall will make it inland to the wheatbelt. My reasoning for this is that when a system is sliding and is so upright the wind that flows into it from the surface starts to come from the N more (nometimes even the NNE!) and that means the amount of land that it travels over as the cold front moves into the weatbelt is significantly greater than usual and hence it dries out closer to the west coast than normal. Also you will notice that the cold pool behind it is even now starting to slide away to the se on the latest sat photos which means that it is likely to miss wa altogether (That is the cold pool showers).

I would love to hear other ideas on why or why not this system will do this or that

I agree Mike, the sliding is cause by two highs to the right joining into a single 1036 high. It really looks now like s/w coast will get a series of fronts, the first being the strongest. A lot of showers basically and wind and rain Monday. This setup has change every 12 hours. Perth should get some reasonable rains still.

The ag. areas will get patchy showers

Your latest would be windy Monday evening and some showers for the rest of the week.

Correction on the current model the ag. area should get reasonable falls, Monday. I would expect it be better the further south you went.

Just gettin g our first few gusts up here on the Mount around 10am. I'll be outide working and watching it build.

Yep, wind really picking up on the coast as well. I'll be keeping my eye out for some nice shear wave clouds this afternoon.

Nice site here for balloon flight info.. will be interesting to see what the afternoon profile is like.

http://slash.dotat.org/cgi-bin/atmos

yes it is building up now i see that perth airport has has gusts to 52km/hr and rotto 59km/h

Makes sense Mikef! I guess how much and when this front starts to slide in a more southerly direction is critical in how much rain we get and how far inland it is taken. I agree with everyone else that the north and eastern ag areas wont see too much rain from this baby, though that is if it sticks to what the models predict and slides as soon as it hits the west coast. If it travels a bit further east, say 100-200km) before starting to head south Morawa and northern areas could still get around 20mm maybe even more. Though if it slides 200km further west, Perth would be struggling to get 20mm. I have a feeling this will stick pretty much to what the models are prediciting maybe a little better.

My previous estimates on the timing of the front seem a bit wrong now, probably wont see it in Perth until closer to Midday, I agree with yah now Mike F & H! Though I still think the strongest winds will be about sunrise as it looks as though the front itself will be quite a weak feature by the time it gets to the coast (wind wise) the pre frontal trough will be where the action is I think. It better be anyway! that will arrive at a much better time for me

With last nights mins, Perth still managed a 1.6C and Jandakot a 0.5C (at 12:59am!!).

Gale warning for Mandurah to Hopetoun too, issued at 4am! good to see the BoM getting in early

Hey Lert thats a good site, quite easy to read, theres also the BoM one, if yah havent seen it before:
Bom Aerological Diagrams

username is bomw0007, password is aviation

after tomorrows gales it looks like are in for another round on thurs/Fri

Glider pilots need easy to read stuff Tim

Funny that the wind seems to have died down now. Anyway, I'll be going to the airport tonight to put my missus on the redeye so will be around for whatever happens near midnight..

Tim, have a look at that nice shear wave stuff out to your west..

The wind dropped off here at 1pm. The pressure is 1019. I think that high in the bight is having a say. It should nick off at night fall.

The antique barometer on our wall is giving the pressure as 990. Me thinks it's out to lunch

Yeah the sky looks awesome hey Lert, good sign of the approaching instability. been outside hacking the garden and it is definitely rather warm out there too. Severe weather warning out already too!

I have a not-so-antique barometer Mike H and mine never varies by much more than 20hpa, it is only 5 hpa off at the moment though I think as a weather instrument those arenoid barometers make a great wallhanging!

Dare I ask.. anyone got any idea what time we might start to see some rain in Perth?

whooo a severe weather warning as mentioned by tim

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Widespread Damaging Winds with Locally Destructive Gusts and Abnormally High
Tides
For people in areas southwest of a line from Jurien Bay to Albany, including the
Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah, Bunbury, Busselton and Albany.
Issued at 3:30 pm on Sunday 23 July 2006.

A strong cold front approaching the southwest corner of the state is expected to
cause severe winds that could result in widespread damage to property. In
localised areas wind gusts may be severe enough to cause significant damage or
destruction of property. Severe winds are forecast to develop in the Southwest
District early Monday morning, extending to remaining parts by midday.

Higher than normal tides may result in inundation of low-lying coastal areas,
particularly in the Geographe Bay area.
The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose items
and stay indoors when strong winds develop. Boat owners should ensure that small
craft are securely moored. Driving conditions will be hazardous.

Tim S I love the approaching grey on blue. Thursday was similar but this will be better.

I'm hoping the barometer is reasonable on the general ol' her prediction, mines going stormy

That last line should read the general weather prediction, mines going stormy