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#67883 - 04/10/2007 09:25 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6072
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Well 12Z EC and GFS seem to be encouraging for some precip over the SW corner (monday). BOM forecast this morning is "showers" which is better than shower or two or few showers. Be interesting to see what ends up happening.
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#67884 - 04/10/2007 21:39 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Blue Skies Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2001
Posts: 588
Loc: Perth (Mundaring) WA
Yes, it will be interesting. The models are a bit all over the place and changing quite a bit from one day to the next so I haven't got that excited about it. It seems like the question will be how much? rather than if it will drop any at all.

Temperates continue to stay low, no real heat in sight yet, although I think we have all been enjoying the warm sunny days here recently.

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#67885 - 05/10/2007 00:11 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6191
Loc: Central Qld.
what absolutely fantastic weather we are having here in perth , out of all capital cities.

It is just perfect, clear days , temps hovering from 21-23, not too hot, not too cold,not too humid,not too dry, not too windy... ahh just beaut smile

of course if it was like this for the whole month then i would think otherwise....

the ocf is going for 4mm on sunday and 5mm on monday

http://australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_009.HTM

whilst i don't mind perth's dry heat and 30 + degree days i sure wouldn't want to see it right now here.
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#67886 - 06/10/2007 11:51 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6191
Loc: Central Qld.
now 4 mm and 3mm

28.8 (degrees) !!! in the forecast for sunday or saturday next week too.

this month is looking very dry compared to last
maybe this means as the pattern goes the eastern states will get a bit of rain now?
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#67887 - 06/10/2007 19:25 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
'Rain periods' in the forecast for Monday now with moderate falls likely. GFS going for 25mm. Nice cut-off so those sort of falls are likely, not just a standard cold front. After that it looks like E/NE to affect Perth so warm temperatures and dry.

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#67888 - 06/10/2007 20:06 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Quote:
Originally posted by John 30:
Give it time Vinny, the 7 day forecast goes up to Monday What Ruckle and I are mentioning is more or less Monday night into Tuesday I would expect showers at some point being mentioned next few days for early next week there
And BOM have jumped on for Monday well and truly now looking good wink let the games begin!

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#67889 - 07/10/2007 01:02 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6191
Loc: Central Qld.
gfs has 25mm?

wow... if that happened that is nearly half the rainfall for the month in a day.

could get quite warm next week 27 or higher on the weekend.
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#67890 - 07/10/2007 09:09 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6072
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Well it has been fun following this system on the models and now the bureau are on board. Just got to wait and see what actually happens now! That is the real fun bit.
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#67891 - 07/10/2007 13:15 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Perth BOM going for everything, showers, thunderstorms and rain, they're certainly covering all bases there. Locally moderate to heavy falls now. Certainly interesting to say the least let's hope it buckets down for SW WA.

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#67892 - 07/10/2007 13:26 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
J_23 Offline
Member

Registered: 19/09/2004
Posts: 136
Loc: Perth
I like the sound of that forecast. I hope it eventuates and we get some heavy rain.

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#67893 - 07/10/2007 13:31 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
If it all goes to plan this is an excellent system for October there with average rainfall being 53mm much lower than the previous months

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#67894 - 07/10/2007 22:39 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6191
Loc: Central Qld.
Quote:
Originally posted by John 30:
If it all goes to plan this is an excellent system for October there with average rainfall being 53mm much lower than the previous months
think that is low guess what our average is in january... 10mm over 2 days

though it is nice and warm and dry though


hope this system eventuates... and is not a fizzling out system. i vaguely remember a low coming towards perth a month or two ago and there was a large high at the bottom of wa so we got zilch.

ocf now thinks 7mm tonight and 15mm tomorrow which ads up to 22mm.

if we don't get the 22mm at least hope we will get more than 1mm

saw 31 in the forecast for next weekend
haven't seen temps like that since............ may?
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#67895 - 08/10/2007 06:39 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6072
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Well some good starter totals to 4AM WST with hopefully a fair bit more to come. Also totals ranging from 2mm as far north as Shark Bay thru the Wheat Belt, down through Katanning and toward Albany. Going to be interesting to see the ned result. Might be some reasonable storms around the southern inland later.
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#67896 - 08/10/2007 11:32 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6072
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
9am totals are in showing widespread falls. More to come and some biggish hit and miss cells forming behind the band that has just been through Perth metro. Northern beaches about to get smashed! Anyway 20 mm at Bickley , 42mm at Karnet and over 20 at Dwellingup should hopefully mean a bit more in the dams for Perth. But gee the wheatbelt falls are widespread over 5mm, hopefully get some more but should be more Perth southward as the day goes on. Great event so far!
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#67897 - 08/10/2007 14:48 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6191
Loc: Central Qld.
perth has got 10 mm so far 43mm to go!!

and the 31degrees in the weekend is going to be followed by 25 the next day
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#67898 - 08/10/2007 15:12 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6072
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Perth metro is up to 15mm, was 10 to 9am and 5 since. Bit of lightning showing up to the west of Perth atm....Bickley up to 35mm so far.
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#67899 - 08/10/2007 15:40 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Blue Skies Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2001
Posts: 588
Loc: Perth (Mundaring) WA
There has been some heavy showers in parts and gutters are awash, making driving a bit hazardous. Looking at the radar and sat pic now it seems like most of it is over but pressure is low, around 1001 and hasn't started to rise yet. There have been reasonable falls south of Geraldton but those east and north of the port town looks to have missed out again.

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#67900 - 08/10/2007 19:59 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6072
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wow Karnet (to 3pm) Dwellingup and Bickley all in the 40 - 50mm range. SURELY the dams should go up in the next few days. Also widespread falls on the other side of the scarp of around 15 mm , some higher , eg Katanning! Great stuff.
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#67901 - 08/10/2007 21:04 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6191
Loc: Central Qld.
looks like 31 degrees then 2 days later 21 smile


wonder when the next widespread rain event will be?
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#67902 - 09/10/2007 10:53 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
cyclonecece Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 7823
Loc: Brandon.. QLD..EX Karratha
some great falls down there

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