I'd be quite excited by this low, very nice warm cored low, forms up beautifully, havent seen many of them as of late so good to see an old fashioned cut-off warm core in the mid lats!! Been nothing but highs and troughs or cold cores over the past few years.

Will certainly deliver some nasty winds on its western and nw flanks and also wet and very windy conditions to the south coast once the wrap around gets going.

TS

Yeah your right Lennie can't remember seeing a system form like this for years especially In Winter would love to be under this baby at the peak of it!

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Widespread Damaging Winds with Locally Destructive Gusts
For people in the Lower West, Southwest, South Coastal district and adjacent
parts of the Great Southern, including the Perth Metropolitan area, Mandurah,
Bunbury, Busselton, Margaret River and Albany.
Issued at 12:25 pm on Thursday 10 July 2008

The passage of a deepening low and associated cold front is expected to cause
widespread damaging winds with the potential for locally destructive gusts in
excess of 125 kilometres per hour. Severe winds are forecast to develop in the
Southwest district during Thursday afternoon and evening, extending to the Lower
West district Thursday evening and along the south coast overnight and during
Friday. Thunderstorms and heavy rain are also possible.

Higher than normal tides may result in inundation of low-lying coastal areas.
Heavy surf conditions are forecast and significant beach erosion is possible,
particularly south of Bunbury.
The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose items
and stay indoors when strong winds develop. Boat owners should ensure that small
craft are securely moored. Driving conditions will be hazardous. Should flash
flooding occur, avoid affected roads, watercourses and floodways in the vicinity
until safe to proceed.

The next warning will be issued by 4:00 pm Thursday

Check out that low now!!! She's a ripper!! Lovely case of 'warm core seclusion' atm going on with the 'eye' formed in the lower cloud - will be much better on a VIS sweep and MODIS will be intresting. Very impressive low, hasn't been one at this latitude to track through the Bight in ages.

TS

Surge of around half a metre along the coast south of Perth. At most locations it coincided with the low tide (and even then, we're at the neap), so there's unlikely to be much inundation.

some good winds down there,got this from bom..A wind gust of 113 kilometres per hour was reported from Walpole at 6:43 am. A
wind gust to 109 kilometres per hour was reported from Albany Airport at 8:55am.
.

that low was a fizzer for perth we scored about next to nothing substantial out of that

What went wrong??

By the way if any albany or south coast people who are on this forum maybe have some stories to share about the storms down south then feel free to post them at
http://waweathergroup.com/forum/index.php

I am still baffled that perth has a nice low near it and yet it still doesn't rain properly here !!

what the ...

the ocf has predictions of some good rainfall from a couple of fronts this week. but the pattern seems to be at the moment that a cold front will look good then it will weaken... this seems to be the case with perth having alot of fizzers lately.. we haven't had a good front that has given us 20mm or more for a few weeks.. they all seem to get weakened or killed off by strong highs.

will just have to wait and see how much we get this week. it could be very likely that the fronts that are strong on the synoptic chart for perth this week could become weak fronts in a couple of days... i hope not but this could happen again.

after a wet july in 2005 , 2006 and 2007 were very dry. so this year or next we should have an average or above average year... well that is what i think anyway..

we have had roughly 30mm so far this month... we need another 140mm in the next 19 days or around 7.3mm a day

looks like more wild weather coming to Perth an a bit more rain than the last one..Wet and windy week ahead in the west
James Luffman, Sunday July 13, 2008 - 15:39 EST
On Tuesday the southwest of the country will enter a wet and windy period lasting much of the week, according to weatherzone.com.au

A strong cold front pushing across the southwest on Tuesday afternoon is likely to bring winds gusting to over 90 km/h and widespread falls of more than 20 millimetres between Perth and Albany.

Conditions may ease briefly early on Thursday before another, more intense front moves through on Friday. Computer model projections of this second system indicate the possibility of wind gusts over 100 km/h, with rainfall as high as 20 millimetres inland and 40 millimetres near the coast.

Winds and showers are then likely to ease over the weekend as the fronts move away to the east.

even if this is 100 percent correct and we get more than they predict.. we still need a lot more fronts/ rain systems otherwise we will be getting another dry july.

nice day today... cloud cleared later in the day and we reached 18 degrees . Everyone seemed to be out in their front garden today mowing lawn or tidying up.

Radar is looking pretty impressive for Perth an surrounds.Some quite heavy falls an rain making its way further inland which is good.

very very impressive
that prefrontal cloud just seemed to linger and dump some good falls over the perth area
and it looks like you guys will be in for some serious falls for the rest of the week

Well some awesome totals around the 40/ 50mm mark and over 20mm in places like Dalwallinu and 12mm as far in as Southern Cross so a good result. Add to that the system later this week and it looks real promising.

40mm here someone must have put an umbrella over the perth rain gauge

Yeah 9.00 readings in and 20mm at Merredin - a great result. Perth hills- Karnet 55mm , Bickly 50+mm so should help the metro water supply a little? Particularly if another inch or so falls up there at end of the week.

perth has as much chance of getting the average this month as winning the lotto i reckon...

but if we get 130mm for the month we will be average for the year...

hmm... we are not even close to 130mm... grr..

showers today... not light ones either...

IDW28001
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Widespread Damaging Winds with Locally Destructive Gusts and Abnormally High
Tides
For people in areas southwest of a line from Geraldton, Merredin to Hopetoun
including Geraldton, Perth, Bunbury, Busselton and Albany.
Issued at 11:30 am on Thursday 17 July 2008
The passage of cold fronts in a strong westerly airstream is expected to cause
widespread damaging winds to 100 kilometres per hour during Friday. There is
also the potential for locally destructive gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per
hour. Severe winds are expected to develop about the west coast by mid Friday
morning then extend to remaining parts during the day. Thunderstorms with hail
and local heavy rainfall are possible.
Higher than normal tides may result in inundation of low-lying coastal areas
along west coastal parts close to the expected high tide at 9 am on Friday
morning. Heavy surf conditions are forecast and significant beach erosion is
possible.
The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose items
and stay indoors when strong winds develop. Boat owners should ensure that small
craft are securely moored. Driving conditions will be hazardous. Should flooding
occur, avoid flooded roads, watercourses and floodways in the vicinity until
safe to proceed.

The next warning will be issued by 4:00 pm Thursday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.


also

another forecast with hail in it... last time we had this type of forecast... well you know what happened ... a fizzer!

Forecast for Thursday
A few showers during the afternoon increasing this evening. The chance of a
thunderstorm. N/NW winds becoming fresh and gusty later.

Precis: Showers increasing. Storm risk.
City: Max 18
Mandurah: Max 16
UV Alert: Nil , UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Forecast for Friday
Windy. Showery periods with possible thunderstorms and hail. Strong to gale
force westerly winds.
Precis: Windy. Showers, thunderstorm, hail.
City: Min 10 Max 16
Mandurah: Min 11 Max 15

Saturday Shower or two clearing. Min 6 Max 15
Sunday Fine. Min 2 Max 16
Monday Fine. Min 2 Max 16
Tuesday Fine. Min 3 Max 17
Wednesday Late showers . Min 6 Max 20

Brilliant looking radar atm, looks like a big long squall line just offshore. Strong NNE - N wind in lower level, real strong W in mid levels , looks a fun evening and then a fair bit more to come tomorrow. Enjoy it.

a bit of lightning as well.hopefully it goes well inland to the places that really need it

I'd certainly be looking out for tornadoes, especially with that second front that is screaming in and going to SLAM the SW 2moro. Looks mighty impressive for a serious powerful blast of winter.

TS

Pretty amazing radar signature atm over about City Beach (ish). Perth radar rarely gets much above yellow (even whilst racking up rain rates we in Melbourne dont see with oranges everywhere)but a nice orange core over this spot and even a little tilt in the cell as it crosses the coast..