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#724263 - 16/06/2005 11:20 SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17553
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Okay I will start this one... :p

Looks very good for a reasonable rainband preceeding the front on Saturday. Patchy rain should start sometime saturday morning I'd say, getting heavier as the day progresses, and the band moves over. Maybe a possibility of an embedded rumble but I dont think we will have the storms like last week. I'm going for 15-20mm for me and most Adelaide areas from this initial band. 10-15mm for Helen.
As rain band contracts eastwards the low moves closer and the winds increase to possible gale force on Sunday. Appears that this low will be much closer to us than the one just gone which could make things interesting. Certainly there will be scattered squally showers around on the Sunday and I'd be going for at least 10mm again for me, and 20-30mm for hills. Agric areas might see 5mm.
All up, It should be a very good follow-up rain for the majority of farming areas, it will continue to fill up those dams, and certainly help out the catchment areas.

I'm sure Lennie will be on soon to post his thoughts.

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#724264 - 16/06/2005 12:09 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yes lol I will!

My goodness @ the potential with this low! The thing I like about it is its close proximity to Adelaide, resulting in the likelyhood of some very strong winds, particularly in the early hours of sunday morning or sat night. Could well be a little damage around from the odd tree down on powerlines, odd roof damaged etc.

Basically a low deepends rapidly west of Perth (right now) and draws in a significant quantity of moisture from the NW into it. It then weakens as it moves into the bight, but a new strong cold front will move into the region with another upper trough (cold pool) behind it and this should re-invigorate the low and it should rapidly deepen right in the bight south of Eucla. Areas of rain, light and patchy at first as well as isolated thunderstorms willd evelop in the west later on friday.

As the low intensifies and moves east, more moisture will be drawn down into it from the NW, however the bulk of the moisture and rainband will stream across the interiors of SA and NT along a strong subtropical jetstream.

On saturday this low will be located roughly south of Ceduna and still intensifying, Areas of rain combined with strong to gale force N to NW winds should develop over agricultural areas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, due to the relatively high instabilty and location of a SE exit region, but the dynamics are not as organised as our last lot of severe thunderstorms on friday evening.

On sunday the low should weaken a little and be centred somewhere south of Adelaide around KI, or just south of here. Strong and squally NW winds will gradually shift W to SW over the course of the day as the low moves east. Showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail are likely over southern agricultural districts, more frequent and heavier about the southern coasts and ranges.

A second trough should rapidly develop on the western flank of this low and impact on the coastline of the western ag areas, chiefly the EP over the course of the day. Showers and isolated thunder and small hail is likely along with squally SW winds.

Everything eases on monday with scattered showers becoming isolated, and SW winds moderating.

Rain totals for the whole event, would be 10-20mm for the EP and northern ag areas, increasing to 20-30mm about the coast of EP. The interiors should see 5-10mm possibly higher further north near the NT border. The southern ag areas including Adelaide should see around 20-35mm mostly, with isolated falls of up to 50mm or more in the ranges. KI should see 20-30mm. The Riverland 5-15mm, mallee 10-20mm, Upper SE 10-20mm and Lower SE 25-35mm with isolated falls over 40mm possible.

TS cool

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#724265 - 16/06/2005 12:14 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
yup, appears to be quite slow moving so i'm predicting falls of around 25-40mm for most of the adelaide region between the 18th and 20th with the rainband and subsequent showers

would be good to nudge 100mm for the month although the ridge is back after this one

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#724266 - 16/06/2005 12:20 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Twisters Offline
Member

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 5241
Loc: Norman, Oklahoma, Usa
Yeah looking great again for u guys this low will be alot further north than klast which is good but means miss out on most of that Nw Infeed really going to dump though central Australia over the weekend lucky them

enjoy guys more rain gonna be great smile

Yeah that high is looking and it haning around for a bit to not good but that is at least 5 days away before we have an idea of that lets hope that infeed heads South

Twister

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#724267 - 16/06/2005 13:51 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17553
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Pretty much off-topic but IMO its the best place for people to read it...
The next ASWA meeting is this Friday 17th June
At: Jolly Miller Tavern, Adam St, Hindmarsh
Time: 7pm
PM me if you need further info. You do not have to be a member to come along.

On topic - I dont think that ridge will hang around too long. Extended GFS does have another cloudband come over the following week and then what appears to be another one right at the end of June.

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#724268 - 16/06/2005 14:42 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Absolutely tim, definitely the place to put it! As Tim says, you do not have to be a member to come along, please feel free to join us if you are interested, we all get along really well smile

NW infeeds are certainly dominating the patterns atm, I wouldn't worry about the ridge at all, infact a good high pressure system is almost needed to allow me to do some gardening! weeds are coming up so fast in 1 week I will have more than ankle deep weeds everywhere.

AVN suggests solid falls for the EP from the first rainband.

TS cool

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#724269 - 16/06/2005 15:41 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
oh yeah dont get me wrong i'm not worried about a ridge that lasts for 3 or 4 days, but you cant blame me after the persistant blocking highs we got for the first 5 months of the year

i guess i'm getting greedy now and expecting front after front after front laugh

certainly looking at solid falls though smile with the latest GFS 168 looking tasty

PS i was gonna come along to the ASWA meeting too but unfortunately gotta work as usual, maybe might make an appearance at the next bowling night

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#724270 - 16/06/2005 15:51 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Interesting to see that all models bar GFS have strengthened the low and its associated rain....GFS in my eyes is clever in thinking that the subtropical jet will be too strong to allow the uppers to be bent more SE to allow the rainband to wrap from head to toe so to speak, rather keeping a massive rainband associated with the jet to the north, not much in between and a smaller band over the waters and southern coasts in association with the moisture that the low has to work with....tho a slight change in the uppers would change this. It is being smartly conservative, espec with the shape of the low, rather oval like, fatther east to west and smaller north to south...hrrmmm.

Next update will paint the real picture.

TS cool

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#724271 - 16/06/2005 17:35 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Quote:
Originally posted by Thunderstruck:
we all get along really well smile
Yeah, but ya all pick on me with no regards to my personal feelings wink I am a sensitive person ya know. laugh

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#724272 - 17/06/2005 11:02 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1573
Loc: West Richmond
Lol, Models seem to have completly reversed now. GASP, LAPS, MLAPS have killed it and GFS looking good. GFS has the low deepening to 992hPa but the other three dont see it getting below 1000.

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#724273 - 17/06/2005 12:42 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yes well I trust GFS over those other 3 nearly all the time. MLAPS isn't as good as I thought it was... GASP just isnt refined enough tho it tries. LAPS is prolly the 2nd best.

Yer GFS has it back on the cards but still smartly doesn't give southern areas heaps out of the first rainband because it is cut-off from the NW infeed, reducing middle level moisture and thus lessensing the chance of a decent drop from a mid levelish rainband, which is the typical rainband over here. It keeps the low to work with whatever southern ocean moisture it can get as well as older, initial NW infeed moisture. Really goes for good rain offshore, and KI etc maybe up to 10mm for Adelaide from the rainband by the looks, with lesser falls for most other areas bar, ranges and KI. Certainly the riverland will struggle with this system.

Shoule be windy tho, BoM have changed their sunday forecast from windy. showers to a shower or two which is good I spose, but I'd still have windy on it. Trough develops on western flank of the low with colder air and slams west and southern coasts of EP and KI etc moving towards Adelaide for late sun into monday, and keeping us in a significant SW fetch of low level moisture with cold air aloft, similar to what we have been seeing for the past 2-3 days with cold air showers, favouring certain areas, tho the stream will be more SW than it was over the last 2-3 days.

Still looking at general 20-35mm for the Adelaide area hopefully, 5-15mm for u Helen.

TS cool

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#724274 - 17/06/2005 16:50 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14881
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Looks alright still, infact the chances of some thunder with the rainband or before it or around its time anyway, have increased. Looks a little better than it did before, vertical velocities are much improved as a start.

TS cool

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#724275 - 17/06/2005 18:49 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17553
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Quote:
Originally posted by hillsrain:
Quote:
Originally posted by Thunderstruck:
[b] we all get along really well smile
Yeah, but ya all pick on me with no regards to my personal feelings wink I am a sensitive person ya know. laugh [/b]
Pick on you????? confused If you call that picking on you then what do you call what I put up with??? :p laugh

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#724276 - 17/06/2005 19:55 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Off topic I know for this system and my apologies for that, buts its very interesting nonetheless.
From the Stock Journal 16th June page 10..
While Karoonda bore the brunt of a tornado....it reportedly hit Bow Hill first...causing up to $20,000 damage to Kym and Karen Krolligs property....7kms south of the town...
It started just down the road from our house in a gully and came through our place, then took the roof off the house across the road", she said.
" I looked out of the window with lightning and I could see a great swirl with leaves and tin blowing, and there was a huge roar. I thought the whole place was going to go..

Sent to me courtesy Ian Holton.
Cheers,
Tim laugh

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#724277 - 17/06/2005 19:56 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Quote:
Originally posted by teckert:
If you call that picking on you then what do you call what I put up with??? :p laugh
Hero Worship wink

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#724278 - 17/06/2005 23:22 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17553
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Some reasonable storms just off the coast of EP atm...
The mid-level cloud is bubbling up over EP and off the coast. Wouldnt suprise me to see a few storms over there in the next few hours.
Does look much better for some storm action around Adelaide tomorrow, I'd say between about 9am and 2pm, before the main rain band gets here.

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#724279 - 18/06/2005 00:22 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Adiabatic Offline
Member

Registered: 01/09/2001
Posts: 14190
Loc: Knoxfield 96m: 120.2mm
Yes really getting a fair bit of coverage on the lightning tracker too (surprising :p ) I think some good signs also that some isolated heavy falls across Adelaide from these are possible.

Good signs for follow up rain.

Are you guys getting any visuals on this lightning activity or is too far away for Adealaide?

Karl smile

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#724280 - 18/06/2005 00:38 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17553
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Nup cant see anything from here but I dont have the best view. Storms a good 250km+ away so would be a struggle anyway. Off to bed now but with the mobile next to me lol....

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#724281 - 18/06/2005 01:31 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
cant see anything from my viewpoint up here, although with the distance and the lights from the city it wud be a struggle

staying up a litter longer tho so will report anything of significance

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#724282 - 18/06/2005 01:47 Re: SA rain band/low 18-20th June 2005
Adiabatic Offline
Member

Registered: 01/09/2001
Posts: 14190
Loc: Knoxfield 96m: 120.2mm
Seems to be a lot of activity north of the city but thats false at this stage.

Karl smile

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