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#74854 - 31/10/2009 13:59 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
Tabulation of the fluctuations in terminal slope locations doesn't really give the full picture.

The thickness and length of the lower extent of glaciers in the European Alps have both reduced by considerable amounts since the 60s even though in good years (low summer melt or high winter snowfall) they record an advance. The net effect is consistent retreat in all the major glaciers, which being major, descend deeper into the valleys or down slope.

In some locations the upper reaches of glaciers have thickened, obviously because of higher precipitation, which in the case of snowfall, rises as the temperature rises to no more than about +2C. There can be snow accumulation above +2C but generally it is wet and dense snow, and unless it falls more or less year around at a high rate, will not effectively feed glaciers. (The New Guinea glaciers were a good example of this. They were truly temperate but once torrential snowfall was replaced by torrential rain they rapidly vanished.)

I think the only way to convince you of the difference would to actually visit the Alestch or
Mer de Glace glaciers where the downwasting at the edges, the lateral moraines, and the retreat of the terminal ice face especially in the case of the former is very obvious. The thinning of the Chamonix facing glaciers of Mt Blanc is so severe that we see transient crevasses that expose the bedrock, so that you observe disconnected sections of the likes of the Bossons Glacier sliding down slope separate from each other rather than as a continuous tongue. The depth of the ice is no longer thicker than the depth at which crevasses self seal. This has effectively cut off the original ascent route. On the Italian side the Innominata Route, which was somewhat extreme at the best of times, is now very hazardous because of the collapse of a hanging section of glacier.

However once you get above 13,000 feet or so there are no obvious signs of glacial retreat on the north or Chamonix side of the massif. It is as densely covered by ice as ever, which is what you also find above 9000 feet in the Mt Cook area.

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#74855 - 31/10/2009 15:05 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
Quote:
Originally posted by Mike Hauber:
What is telling from that chart is during an AMO cool phase, which is going to effect Europe stronger than most places on the planet, half of the glaciers are still retreating (and half advancing). While AMO is postive nearly all of them are.
how is that different from early 1900s?

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#74856 - 31/10/2009 15:18 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
so ben, what is it you believe? do you believe like mike that the fact that the glaciers were retreating in the early 1900s mean nothing? or that we should just ignore that and concentrate on the here and now? oh no wait, we should go and visit it! what on earth does that have to do with the science?? just like gore with his polar bear remark. there is no difference. heart strings v reality. ohh look at all the ice gone, who cares if it all happened before or all that ice wouldnt change sea levels one iota, lets just push on with the human induced global warming caused it...

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#74857 - 31/10/2009 16:04 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Natasha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/09/2005
Posts: 444
Loc: Melbourne ( Prahran)
Its complex. I notice both sides feels passionate about this matter.

My cousin in Taipei said of the matter - can we prove beyond doubt that we humans are not having any effect on the climate.
If not then changing some our excesses (not need to's) would not hurt if we are thinking about how it could be for our grandkids & great grand kids.

I am more inclined to just sit on the fence here and observe the infomration and how people react.

But I do wonder (& this is offtopic) but surely the resources consumed by the human technology which are big fossil fuel users; will chomp up the non renewable resources then there wont be non renewable resources for our grand kids great grand kids.
I think we are pretty sure this is inevitable.

We all know that when the temperature soars nowadays the grid is hit super hard by the aircon use.
So there is your biggest consumer of fossil fuel.
My grandparents & even my parents as young adults & all before them managed OK without having buildings & transport air conditioned.

I think we have got soft and are spinning out if it gets over mid high twenties.
That makes us more vunerable imo & we will be sorry we got into this mess.
Anyway end of off topic

I can understand people being sceptical about this AGW thing as the corporates & government have turned it into a money spinner and the money spinner will not do anything to improve the situation

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#74858 - 31/10/2009 16:19 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
mobihci,

The purpose of the thread is to discuss interesting articles, not query people about what they believe in, or feed some unrelated agenda. I have not suggested that because the glaciers were retreating by 1900 means anything more than that they were melting faster than they they could renew their ice mass.

Gore, or polar bears, or even drop bears don't seem particularly relevant to the discussion.

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#74859 - 31/10/2009 16:38 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Nice try with the mild and easy going topic Simmo, but it just ain't gonna work like that in practice!!!

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#74860 - 31/10/2009 17:46 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Rime Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/06/2001
Posts: 1444
Loc: Perth,WA
Uhmm..wouldn't it be better if there was just one large AGW thread going so that we can talk about anything that is related to AGW??

The last AGW thread should be reopened or continued by starting a sequel to it. For as long as the weatherzone forums remain open, GW is always going to creep on here one way or another. It would be far easier to moderate it if there was one general AGW thread so everyone can have their say about any topic relating to AGW (provided it is not personal attacks, etc). It is now going to get very messy if everyone starts opening a new thread based on one topic relating to AGW.

:cheers:

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#74861 - 31/10/2009 18:35 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17570
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
We will keep this thread going for the time being. The mods are discussing the whole GW debate & how to manage it on the forums, so will have some sort of resolution on that in the next few days. In the meantime, keep on topic, debate it, but NO personal attacks will be tolerated.

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#74862 - 31/10/2009 19:42 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Just couldn't resist posting this one!

Gore Gone Wild: Predicts 220 Foot Sea Level Rise in 10 years

Plus Gore's prediction of 100 million refugees per metre of sea level rise.
With a 67 metre rise that is 6.7 billion refugees, ie; the Earth's entire current population, looking for a patch of dry land within ten years time.
Now maybe this is a mistranslation from Arabic as Gore reputedly said this in Dubai.
That is being checked.

And this whacko as Clinton's vice president, was just a heart beat away from the presidency of the most powerful nation on Earth.

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#74863 - 31/10/2009 20:31 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
Is calling people 'whacko' on a weather forum acceptable? Is a 67 metre sea level rise as accurate as the recent graphed reporting of a 60 feet snow fall by Watts Up in a fictitiously blizzard bound USA?

Can we have a bit of consistency here please.

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#74864 - 31/10/2009 20:58 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Thanks BD but I feel futility is a pre-requisite to anything AGW. I love the debate but still it goes on that if the majority start to rule I.E. ( Global warming is good, but global cooling appears to be happening with all the evidence I have seen) then those who are on the governments tax grab get grumpy and chastise others, then the poor old thread gets closed.
I have posted this before but seems relevant..
I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train
http://mises.org/story/2571

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#74865 - 31/10/2009 21:50 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Probably not much point my saying anything about the way people seem to flare up over this issue, but if it were in Parliament the time allotted would have expired years ago..I think it's technically called 'the debate was talked out'.

Some people forget that there's no such thing as parliamentary privilege in a weather forum.

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#74866 - 31/10/2009 22:00 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Lindsay Smail Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2002
Posts: 42
Loc: Geelong
It is vital for the health of the science to keep this thread open. There will always be extreme views on any side. My opinion, for what it is worth, is that no personal attacks or name-calling ought to be tolerated on any FORUM CONTRIBUTOR. Politicians, however, are in a different category. A politician is setting himself/herself up for criticism because of the nature of their business and because they themselves can use parliamentary privilege when it suits them. To call Gore a wacko is not the same, in my opinion, as calling one of our Forum Contributors a wacko. The only stipulation I would make would be to avoid swearing, simulated swearing, and normally-accepted offensive language, and this has been the policy since the start.
But the forum must be kept open. At least one other forum has recently been "recessed" or closed and another is now run by those who have shown themselves to be less-than-open-minded.
It gives proper balance to the discussion if all sides can continue to be heard, and that the moderators are willing to allow all sides without bullying or denigration.

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#74867 - 31/10/2009 22:13 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17570
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Exactly right. Its not that hard to have a proper constructive debate without personal attacks. Yes you might not agree with what's being said, but you need to debate it with facts & info without criticising the person.
Enough said on that. It's impossible to have a weather forum without this debate, but you all know what happens if guidelines are not followed.

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#74868 - 01/11/2009 07:12 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
I disagree about politicians being exempt from insults and slanders, however deserved, because such tags inevitably re-open the discussion to culture wars. They also expose the forum owners 'the publishers' and the contributors 'the authors' to the risk of defamation actions.

Most journalists are updated on defamation litigation on a semi regular basis. I have a feeling that a state of blissful unawareness of the law of defamation exists here, and of its original purpose, which is to establish (however imperfectly in real life) a principle of fairness and accountability in public comment.

What a politician says, or what is contained in a document tabled in an Australian parliament, or in court as testimony, examination or as an exhibit in an open hearing and not including in a publication ban constitutes a 'privileged document' or 'privileged statement.'

However while we are protected by privilege in quoting such documents, the authors of such documents or comments have the same rights as all Australians to sue for defamation if the claims made about them are not capable of claiming parliamentary or legal privilege and they can establish that what was untruly said about them was capable of damaging them. (I am paraphrasing pages and hours of briefings here). This includes stuff that is made up. A relevant recent case involves a famous Australian tennis player and a women's magazine that is alleged to have invented a story about his secret lover.

So, everybody, be careful.

The laws of defamation do not preclude open and spirited discussion. They do however carry risks for publishers and contributors if the material is malicious, and manifestly untrue or fictional.

There are dozens of costly out of court settlements involving web sites in Australia each year.

I suggest that the forum not tolerate personal attacks on any person on this forum. That doesn't affect robust criticism and analysis of what a scientists says, but claiming without evidence that someone is in the pay of shadowy forces, or engaged in murder or embezzlement had better be based on indisputable facts or 'privileged' information.

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#74869 - 01/11/2009 07:31 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
British Launch Ad Campaign to Raise Fading Climate Concerns

"People see climate change as something far off. But they are prepared to act if they understand that it will affect their children," she told E&E. Flagging interest in climate change also poses a problem for the Obama administration in the United States. With little more than a month before the United States is expected to lead in international climate talks in Copenhagen, a recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press shows only 35 percent of Americans see global warming as a serious problem, a drop of 9 percentage points since last year.

The British government's campaign, aimed at shoring up waning support, will also be in print, and will run until mid-November. It notes that some 40 percent of the climate-changing carbon dioxide emitted by Britons comes from housing and personal transport. It immediately drew more than 200 complaints to the advertising standards authority, the national watchdog for misleading advertising. The DECC spokeswoman said the bulk of the complaints were over the science cited in the ad.
http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2009/10/30/...ng-c-28845.html

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#74870 - 01/11/2009 07:40 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
It is encouraging to see that the UK ad campaign is drawing complaints. The science of anthropogenic global warming should be nourished by challenge as well as inquiry, not anointed as set in stone, at which point, it ceases to be scientific.

Who knows, maybe the focus will sharply return to the large scale liberation of fossilised carbon which is the fundamental concern.

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#74871 - 01/11/2009 08:03 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
"According to the 2007 IPCC AR4 Methane has a “global warming potential” of 25 times that of CO2 over 100 years. Here’s a CH4 budget pie chart. Note that there are several sources where we can manage methane without affecting energy creation. Starting on Methane, rather than CO2, is an idea that I could get behind because it can be recycled and used for many things"
(quote from...
Methane

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#74872 - 01/11/2009 09:05 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
That's a pretty good point I think. The issue that the scare merchants avoid (not you BD) is the short life of methane. While that breakdown, primarily from sunlight, does yield carbon compounds, the very high contribution of comparatively smaller amounts of methane to the 'greenhouse effect' is thus transitory.

If I was a farmer I'd be emphasising the fossil carbon issue as the core issue, not farting livestock.

Methane can greatly enhance clean combustion cycles too, or so the position papers have claimed for some time. One project that the CSIRO was involved in concerned the sequestration of carbon dioxide from coal burning back to the lower depths of coal seams in Poland where copious quantities of methane were trapped at a depth too great for the coal to be mined manually or by robots.

The carbon dioxide pumped down to those levels was forcing the methane out of the geological prison in which it was held allowing it to be burned on the surface and in theory help pay for the added cost of the sequestration and produce an overall system wide output of energy that was releasing significantly less carbon dioxide than before.

OK, that was the theory. Full commercial practicability is some time off, but the principle is interesting and encouraging.

I notice there were reports last week saying clean coal was 20 years away in the future. Great news. Most of the coal burning power plants in Australia will be due for renewal, AGW or not, for practical reasons in the 2025-2045 period, and bringing proven clean burn technology into play in their replacements would seem to me to be comparatively painless if not more profitable than is the case for coal fired power generation today.

There are technological solutions out there. The universally attractive ones are those that make economic sense irrespective of the validity or otherwise of AGW.

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#74873 - 01/11/2009 11:58 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
An article from Pielke Snr\'s blog, Climate Science with links to the "Science" papers on the gross energy inefficiency of that great AGW mitigation icon, Bio-fuels.

And another article on the pitfalls of placing any reliance on that other beloved technology of the warmista activists, the fossil fuel energy replacement technology, wind power, from "Master Resource", "Industrial Wind Technology":

And something that is eminently sensible from an energy saving and energy cost benefit , roof tiles that change colour from black to white according to the temperature.
From ; Physorg.com, "Color-changing roof tiles absorb heat in winter, reflect it in summer"

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