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#74894 - 02/11/2009 13:06 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Flying Binghi (2) Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/10/2009
Posts: 42
Loc: Australia
While i'm on the IPCC based Garnaut report. An interesting news report via WUWT -

"...the warming estimates produced by the IPCC’s twenty-something climate models are little more than educated guesses. It verges on scientific malpractice that politicians and the media continue to portray the models as accurate in this regard, without any objections from the scientists who should know better."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/01/spencer-on-ipcc-admission-on-climate-feedbacks/#more-12365

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#74895 - 02/11/2009 13:59 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Just for interest sake, i read a research summary from the CSIRO saying that only a 1-2c increase in the sydney basin in the next 50 years would significantly increase the frequency and intensity of hailstorms..

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#74896 - 02/11/2009 16:06 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
I think Mike's posting corrects the inaccurate early snow claims on Watts Up, especially the mythic 60 foot snow fall on October 13 and accompanying ice hockey stick (snow depth graph) posted on that site.

The veracity of news items ought to be discussed, as for example the relevant criticisms that media articles often incorrectly endorse the accuracy of models when in fact they are only educated guesses as pointed out in FB (2)'s most recent reference back to the brilliant but not infallible Watts Up site.

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#74897 - 02/11/2009 16:45 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
The models have been as accurate as the scientists state they should be. They correctly predicted warming 30 years ago. The warming has been less than predicted. However every scienctific discussion on climate sensitivity to CO2 nominates an error range of about +/- 50% for the warming rate, and the rate of warming experience has been higher than the lower range of such an error estimate.

Has the media specifically endorsed the accuracy of models? Or is it more of a case where they have avoided the issue of uncertainty?

A headline of 'scientists warn we may be experience temperatures up to 10 degrrees higher' is certainly more exciting and punchier than 'Scientists warn we will experience temperatures between 1 and 10 degrees higher depending on climate sensitivity and depending on whether you are in a fast heating spot or not'.

The first headline is factually correct, but leaves out the boring bits to be misleading to those who don't think too hard about what is being said.

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#74898 - 02/11/2009 17:03 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
Quote:
Originally posted by Ben Sandilands:
especially the mythic 60 foot snow fall on October 13 and accompanying ice hockey stick (snow depth graph) posted on that site.
Did you actually find any evidence that this snowfall was mythic? Hunting down the article, the chart is labelled as 'maximum snow depth'. so presumably 60 foot accumulated at the bottom of a cliff would qualify.

The Watts article fails to point out that in a warming world the moisture content of the atmosphere will increase. This means that where snow falls it will probably fall deeper. I would expect that with a warming world we should be seeing heavier snow falls in a smaller area.

Here is a chart showing the decling trend in snow cover for the northern hemisphere:


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#74899 - 02/11/2009 18:05 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
ooo, look, its another inverted AMO picture again, and starting in the mid 60s no less!

ben,
that 60 foot snow thing on wuwt was from here-

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2009&month=10&day=13&units=e

i suggest if you or anyone has a question about how the data is applied, then ask them. obviously wuwt was just using this site graphing for the change in this maximum over the past decade or so. it means little to me, but probably means a lot to the weather/snow buffs in america.

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#74900 - 02/11/2009 19:02 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA

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#74901 - 02/11/2009 19:33 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Ben Sandilands Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1252
Loc: Southern highlands NSW
Mike,

It describes the site as being in open forest if you click through to the location. This is nonsensical. 60 feet is one third the way to initiating glacial movement in standing snow.

BD,

Roger does a great job in that post. While it isn't about the science of greenhouse gas emissions, it is about the freedom for contrary voices to be heard, which seems to me even more important when the language is studious and measured.

There is an ABC version of the story here:

ABC on CSIRO censorship claims

Note, this is a mainstream media story, indicating that the Australian media doesn't ignore those who sing out of tune. It also appears to be a very fair story, although it doesn't stray from its criticism of carbon trading into the topic at hand, which is whether the science is valid and so forth.

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#74902 - 02/11/2009 19:34 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Jo Nova has been posting some angry articles on the money trail that is associated with Rudd's proposed forcible mandating of an ETS.
And the analysis is that like Enron who was the biggest lobbyist for carbon credits at Kyoto, the big australian and international banks are lining up to get their ugly snouts deep into the CO2 mitigation financial trough which will be forcibly and amply filled with the compulsory government mandated largesse from the unfortunate public's pockets.

As the saying goes, if you want the truth follow the money trail!
So from Jo Nova's blog;
"Banks want us to trade carbon" &
"Hopes for carbon hub in jeopardy"

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#74903 - 02/11/2009 21:59 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
World leaders accused of myopia over climate change deal

Senior officials and negotiators increasingly gloomy about the prospects for a global warming deal next month


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/01/climate-change-world-leaders-accused

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#74904 - 02/11/2009 22:04 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Follow the science on climate change

As next month’s Copenhagen conference approaches, politicians should not be distracted by the apparently growing volume of sceptical voices challenging the need for global action against climate change. Some of the sceptics may have scientific backgrounds but they are not in the mainstream of contemporary climate research. The real experts – hundreds of scientists worldwide who are examining the link between climate and carbon dioxide emissions – have no doubt that man-made global warming is a real crisis that must be addressed urgently.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ec04319c-c703-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

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#74905 - 02/11/2009 22:22 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
From Dr. Roy Spencer who is head of the Uni of Alabama's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer [ UAH AMSR-E] which is regarded as arguably the most reliable and accurate source of global temperatures but which as yet only has a data base of global temps a decade or so long.
One of the great arguments in the AGW debate is the fact that the IPCC modelers have assumed that all the climate feedbacks are positive, ie; they simply continue to reinforce events in an ever increasing and ever more unstable system, something that in the 4 plus billion years of the Earth's geological history has never occurred before.
If it had then neither we nor any life on what would be left of the the planet would still be around.
Some negative feedbacks are inherently necessary to ensure stability in any system but the existence of negative feedbacks are just simply ignored by the IPCC's modellers.

A quote from the IPCC's report and Dr Spencer\'s comments on this quote and a quick analysis of the IPCC's modeller's attitudes to feedbacks.

Quote;
“A number of diagnostic tests have been proposed…but few of them have been applied to a majority of the models currently in use. Moreover, it is not yet clear which tests are critical for constraining future projections (of warming). Consequently, a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate change feedbacks and climate sensitivity has yet to be developed.”

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#74906 - 02/11/2009 23:18 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
The models don't assume feedbacks are positive. Models calculate the physical processes involved in climate (with approximations of course), and the feedbacks are a result of the model and not an assumption fed into the moel.

Anyone who claims otherwise knows nothing about how climate models work, or is just plain dishonest.

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#74907 - 03/11/2009 03:42 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Flying Binghi (2) Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/10/2009
Posts: 42
Loc: Australia
"...Current climate models appear insufficiently reliable to properly account for natural and anthropogenic contributions to past climate change, much less project future climate..."

"... You can do physics without climatology, but you can’t do climatology without physics..."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/16...imate-position/

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#74908 - 03/11/2009 07:52 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
Quote:
Originally posted by Flying Binghi (2):
"...Current climate models appear insufficiently reliable to properly account for natural and anthropogenic contributions to past climate change, much less project future climate..."

"... You can do physics without climatology, but you can’t do climatology without physics..."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/16...imate-position/
A statement signed by 160 physicists out of a body that has 47,000 members. How much weight should should we be putting on the opinion of a small minority group within a science discipline other than climatology?

Because obviously you can do physics without [having to understand anything about] climatology.

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#74909 - 03/11/2009 10:38 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
And a correction has been made to Gore's forecast sea level rises made in a speech in Dubai.
Gore was reported as forecasting a sea level rise of 67 metres if the North Pole was to melt.
Gore apparently forecast a sea level rise of 6.7 metres so the mistake is apparently due to a mistranslation of his speech.

More here from "The American Thinker" blog.

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#74910 - 03/11/2009 13:15 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Flying Binghi (2) Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/10/2009
Posts: 42
Loc: Australia
Quote:
A statement signed by 160 physicists out of a body that has 47,000 members. How much weight should should we be putting on the opinion of a small minority group within a science discipline other than climatology?

Because obviously you can do physics without [having to understand anything about] climatology.
"...You have recently received a letter from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), purporting to convey a “consensus” of the scientific community that immediate and drastic action is needed to avert a climatic catastrophe..."

"...We know of no evidence that any of the “leaders” of the scientific community who signed the letter to you ever asked their memberships for their opinions, before claiming to represent them on this important matter..."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/16...imate-position/


"A CSIRO economist whose research criticising emissions trading schemes was banned from publication said last night he had been subjected to harassment by the senior agency management..."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26297102-2702,00.html


"I HEAR on the scientific grapevine that CSIRO’s biggest problem when providing formal advice to the federal Government on the matter of climate change is to say nothing that can be interpreted as giving aid and comfort to the army of irresponsible sceptics out there who are doubtful about the dreadful consequences of global warming..."

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/l...oisoned_by_fear

............. smile

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#74911 - 03/11/2009 16:57 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3360
Loc: Buderim
Anyone who wants to dig further into the hockey stick controversy may want to check out the delayed oscillator blog, which is quite technical and evidently written by an expert in the field (according to Deep Climate)

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#74912 - 03/11/2009 18:58 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Flying Binghi (2) Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 09/10/2009
Posts: 42
Loc: Australia
"Weather observatories in Australia, dating back 100 years or more, show cities getting hotter as they get bigger; but country towns have generally not been warming up. Some have actually been cooling down..."

http://www.newsweekly.com.au/articles/2009oct31_c.html

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#74913 - 03/11/2009 21:46 Re: Interesting news articles about AGW - Archive
Lindsay Smail Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2002
Posts: 42
Loc: Geelong
Agreed FlyingB2. I can't understand why the UHI debate continues since the effect has been so well understood for years. You only have to read Harvey Stern's report on Melbourne's temps, or the one (author forgotten) on Victorian towns over 10,000 population, or even look at some of the Stevenson Screens used in USA, Europe, Russia, or their siting anomalies, and so on, to see that VERY MANY currently used and reporting weather stations are totally unreliable. And for anyone to claim the readings from those stations are "standardised", "moderated" or sanitised is disingenuous. The media will still report "Melbourne's highest temperature this century or whatever" without telling their audience that the raw data has been subject to UHI influences, namely that it was recorded in the middle of the CBD surrounded by heat-producing and retaining infrastructure.

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