Tough questions to answer here!

Farmers, being very aware of their natural surroundings, see things of nature that change easily, and see them over years and years and things start to make sense after a while.

Most of my clients are farmers, and they see springs start to flow in creeks and at various places, when it is dry, and especially before a autumn break, and then lo and behold...it rains a week or two or so later ussually!

Now why does it happen, where does the water come from (underground yes, but why there after a big drought...summer rains maybe, or long term subterrean travel), & why is it so???

No one seems to know. Atmospheric pressure lowering before rains...sounds likely, but does not match what happens generally. Pressures seem to be fairly stable one or two weeks before a rain event or rain break.

Maybe a day or two or three before they drop and less atmospheric pressure would, to a quick run of the brain, mean pressure of water below can rise water levels up, but the pressure do not seem to do that...and in fact they are quite high at the moment, and the springs or soak have come up and are increasing near Horsham.......as stated by ROM in the Agricultural Forum posts.

So what is the answer to the questions...I don't know? Anyone else have any theories?

Cheers, Ian

I think a good starting point would be to look at the characteristics of the springs and see if there is any correlation between those that flow and those that don't (are there any that don't seem to start?)

From a very brief introduction to this kind of thing at uni I think the recharge time (duration for a cycle) of groundwater resevoirs is well into the decades, wheather hat has to do with anything I don't know.

The whole pressure effect at first looks plausible, but you would have to look at the long term (monthly avg pressures) to get an idea. Individual high and low pressure cells would have little influence. If a low moved over an area and 'released' the pressure on the groundwater in the area, the permeability of most soils would mean that by the time the groundwater is beginning to make its move upwards the next high pressure system is over the area and again supresses the flow.

If there is a monthly trend of low pressure, ie the highs are weakening or the lows are strengthening, then even though the water table may yo-yo, the net direction will be upwards.

Anyway, I reckon the person to talk to about this subject would be Chris. I haven't seen him around for a while, but his area is this hydrogeology (I think that's the term) and would be right up his alley.

:cheers: Will

We've all heard about these stories, but I'd like to see some actual data concerning the predictiveness of spring emergence as a predictor of future rainfall events. Is there any?

Maybe it has something to do with the moon and how close it is to the earth during certain times of the year? The moon does control tides and seas and oceans are pretty big bodies of water... don't know.

You'd have the same problem with the moon as you would with the atmospheric pressure.

The ocean is a massive body of water free to move with almost no impedence (in terms of vertical movement). Unlike the ocean, groundwater encounters a lot of resistance to its movement, thereby slowing the movement consiberably. To move groundwater, long term, sustained forces need to act on it.

:cheers: Will

I have never seen a study on spring flows that are relative to rainfall predictions.
The science community treat this as just another case of unprovable country folklore from the peasants out there.
Yet, interestingly, this same science community is prepared to spend millions on trying to understand the 3000 year old monuments and stone engravings of so called primitive peoples that are based on the various natural solar and lunar cycles.
There is often astonishment at the technology prowess and the predictive skills of these peoples. Yet their skills were just century's long accumulation of small scraps of knowledge based on exactly the same manner as we, the ordinary country people of today watch nature and all it's variations to learn and to try and survive and prosper in a harsh, unforgiving and non weekly wage protected environment.
No studies exist that I know of and no need to do any studies on the claimed response of springs and etc to changes in the weather as it is just simple minded folklore from simple minded people.

I have seen it in action in 1997...dry as whatever, well into winter, springs came up, and within around a week later rains started...and I often heard from farmers on quite a few other years, they tell me springs are running, it is bone dry at the time, "bingo" the rains start a week ot two or three later. It is very common event that takes place on a yearly basis on many properties every Autumn and is noticed by many farmers around Australia. Things happen sometimes that we don't understand, neither does science...eg. Why do tons of birds go to north to breed in Lake Eyre area when it is full, but it is bone dry down south? How do they know the Lake is full?

There is a web site called www.predictweather.com and they reckon that rain is tied up with the moon phases; if so maybe it does have something to do with the pull of the moon and it's eliptical orbit around our planet. Probably a load of crap anyway. :rolleyes:

Predictweather is a load of total tosh. The longrange moon-cycle booklets have been analysed for predictive accuracy - they are absolute junk.

Here's an astronomer's take on the drivel, including the odd notable weather event that wasn't on the author's radar:

http://www.astronomy.org.nz/aas/Journal/Oct2004/PseudoWeather.asp

There's enough junk science around already - don't encourage this guy by boosting his progile in Australia just when finally even naive NZers are beginning to see the light!

Oh well it was just a thought, and yes it's a load of rubbish anyway. All I'm saying is that we shouldn't underestimate the pull and influence of the moon.

On my farm, for the 4 years that I have had it, some of the springs start running about a week before we get some decent rain.
In a normal season these springs run all year round, but last summer(06/07) they stopped running in November 06 but the summer before(05/06) they stopped in Feb 06.

Funnily enough, there is a spring on top of a hill which is one of the ones that starts up before the rain comes.

Some may say it is a load of rubbish, but I have seen it with my own eyes, 4 years in a row now, so I believe it.

There is a lot of folklore around amongst country people about rainfall events occurring at certain phases of the moon or in specific intervals after these moon phases.
Some low level research work has shown that there appears to be no correlation between moon phases and rainfall events at all.
HOWEVER , research work done in South Africa some years ago showed a definite correlation between moon phases and rainfall events.
The kicker was that on a small enough geographical scale but on long time scales, periods of dry occurred in some areas and rainfall occurred in others, both being coincident with the moon phases.
The old problem; If your scale is too large you smooth out the results and will get a false or incorrect or only partly correct answer to a lot of what are apparently wide area phenomena

Local knowledge is usually right over scientific data. Farmers have been doing this for generations and have been through drought and floods and would certaintly have some personal knowledge on seasons and when the rains are due.

But Moon phases i am a little bit sceptic on, till I see some data that might prove me otherwise.

I did a small local study here on some moon phases.
http://users.senet.com.au/~holton7/articlemoon.htm

This has always bothered me. A couple of years back, I received a book for Xmas called "Nature's Weather Watch". One of the things to look out for, apparently, was rain 3 days either side of a full moon, which would mean more rain in the coming month. Likewise, no rain near the full moon, no rain for the month. Having a pretty scientific mind, I was skeptical, but have been monitoring it for two years now (with the initial aim of proving it wrong) - it has never been wrong on a local level, BUT, I have no way of knowing whether it works on a larger scale (and logically, really can't accept that it does).

Just saw your survey HH - in my observations there was also a correlation between amount of rain at full moon and rain which followed during the month

Another folklore I heard while I was out west was if you see a halo around the full moon (or close enough to a full moon), you can't the stars within the halo and that will be the number of days till it rains.

Unfortunately for the person who told me, I pointed out that the size of the halo doesn't really vary, but its more about the time of year and what's in our night skies.

But I observed the same thing with the springs. About 2 1/2-3 weeks before it rained a creek that we were building a new culvert over started to run again. This was in Feb/March last year and there had not been any normal rain (avg) since Oct/Nov the year before.

I found out later that the springs along the creek line had started running again and so did the creek.

:cheers: Will

The rings around the moon are very well known as a rain predictor so here is a very short explanation from the University of Alaska;
The ring that appears around the moon arises from light passing through six-sided ice crystals high in the atmosphere. These ice crystals refract, or bend, light in the same manner that a camera lens bends light. The ring has a diameter of 22 [ degrees ], and sometimes, if you are lucky, it is also possible to detect a second ring, 44° diameter.
How can rings around the moon be used as a weather predictor? The ice crystals that cover the halo signify high altitude, thin cirrus clouds that normally precede a storm front by one or two days. Maybe the ancients knew more than we think they did.

This one just recently was a corker, one of the best I have seen. But this was a false prophet as it bought a week of sunny, fine and over 30 degrees!

But apparently springs in the deepest of gullies down the road from here have started flowing again in the last fortnight? This in an area that has seen decline from nearly a 40 inch average to 36-37 and is in one of its driest periods ever. Most of the springs have stopped so why go now with such an incredibly dry watertable and soil profile? Its an interesting question. I tend to listen more (drawing my own conclusions from the data presented) to those who observe the world rather than those who study it from afar though. Scientists do not know and cannot explain everything and until they can tend to dismiss the observations of people who are in the "uninformed" masses as the so called educated world call and see them. Yes there are old wives tales and legends. But most legends have some basis in the beginnings of truth and unravelling these is fascinating! Besides old fellas love to talk and their stories are better than watching a movie or reading a book

So who knows what will happen.

Isnt Adelaide the driest state capital of the driest state Oz-wide?

Yes RF thats true about Adelaide city - so they tell us. I am in the small ranges just east of the city where annual rains range from 1200mm to 750mm depending on location. See my website for more info