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#1408712 - 19/02/2017 20:33 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing how quick the coldies evaporate as sunset approaches in almost (not every ) case except for places near or downwind from a large body of water. Really need a super blob of upper cold pool moving overnight to keep them going after dark if you are not downstream of water.

Haven't emptied my gauge yet, one pretty good shower around 350 or so, quite a bit of tiny hail but no thunder. I would guess maybe close to 3mm. Had a max for the day of 13.8c, currently 8.3c.

A snap of the hail producing coldie looking to my SW as it approached. Yep still need to clean the camera. Anyone else amused how this event didn't get a thread but probably delivered more excitement than many do?






Edited by Ruckle (19/02/2017 20:34)
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1408722 - 19/02/2017 20:53 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Nice shot Ruckle! Love a good stormy sky! wink

Yeah I notice that too mate, unless a good upper-level cold pool can swing into Victoria tonight, then your best bet for after-dark shower and thunderstorm activity during a cold outbreak like this one would be to be located somewhere downstream of large bodies of water.

In my case, having Port Phillip to my southwest usually works to my advantage! Most of the showers and storms have cleared from the Melbourne area for the moment, but looks like the "bay-effect" will be in full-swing tonight! wink

Currently 8.5C. I'm predicting it'll drop to around 7C tonight! eek

Found this video on Facebook of a waterspout down at Mentone. smile

https://www.facebook.com/gabbystorm.figueiredo/videos/10155056947382774/

Edit: and yes I'm amused how no thread was set up for this event, and yet it delivered the goods lol. wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (19/02/2017 20:58)

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#1408738 - 19/02/2017 21:04 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Petros


Whats the chance of getting a circa 42C day in these N Gippy parts for the rest of this summer season???


Not very high I think Petros. Certainly nothing in the modelling would suggest anything like that and then it's getting pretty late.

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#1408742 - 19/02/2017 21:05 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Fairly steady light rain for past 90 mins or so. Seems to have stopped just now. BoM reckons about 7mm in Bairnsdale so far. I'd think a bit less here.

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#1408779 - 19/02/2017 21:52 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
6.9c now. Brilliant.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1408838 - 20/02/2017 09:11 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thanks for the pic R eek, that's threatening cold weather!

3mm here and another fresh morning, saw 20C max. yesterday.

40C+? , with Feb. all but over and not on any immediate forecast horizons I've seen the Q. is almost "40C+ in March?", pretty unlikely in the past to crack those high ones in March around here.

Zero visible snow on our Mt. Wellington this morning.



Edited by samboz (20/02/2017 09:14)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1408859 - 20/02/2017 12:19 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Ruckle nice photo and that just same looking what dark clouds went over Bendigo dumping cold showers no thunder or hail of 2mm and we only need 3.2mm more to met February average rainfall.

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#1408860 - 20/02/2017 12:24 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
3.1mm for me out of the last day or so.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1408872 - 20/02/2017 13:24 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Was quite an exciting day yesterday. My rain gauge doesn't quite reflect that as the showers were fast moving, collected only 2.3mm here in Tarneit. Amazing clouds, Thunder, Rain & Hail!

I snapped this shot of some cool cloud formations from my yard last night, sorry about the size.

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#1408900 - 20/02/2017 17:53 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Great stuff Weatherviewer, back side of Coldies can be very photogenic and with some Mammatus as well - bonus shot!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1408901 - 20/02/2017 18:06 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great photo Ruckle - everything about it screams "April" to me especially the grass colour.

W.V. that photo is the best example of mamatus cloud I reckon I've seen on this forum (in terms of "downward penetration"). A classic text book example.

Amazing cold "outbreak-with-no-thread" for Victoria in the peak of summer eh?

We picked up another 4mm here last night/today to take us to 5.25mm for this non-thread smile

Looks like temps will pick up a little over next two days (just over 30C) before falling back again. The next "warmer Northerly weather" may arrive next Monday. I'm going to start a "last hurrah" thread for this one so we can speculate if it will be the warmest (note I didnt use the word hottest) day for the remainder of this summer period!

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#1408912 - 20/02/2017 19:14 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Wow that was an amazing night, a perfect climax to a non-thread event! I clocked up FAR MORE rain than I expected; I was only anticipating around 5-10mm. But instead I'm left with 68.6mm in total for this event! =D

Since my last post, the cold pool combined with what I'm guessing to have been an unusually warm Port Phillip to set up a prolonged and very intense convergence boundary. The rain started just before 10pm last night, with a few more thunderstorms coming through around 11pm and midnight (relatively infrequent thunder and lightning though). Very heavy showers and storms then continued more-or-less continuously over my neck of the woods until about 1pm this arvo! smile

Between 9am yesterday and 7:30am today (when I had to leave for work), I clocked up 45.3mm, of which 25.3mm was added to the 20.0mm collected from yesterday afternoon and evening's shower and violent thunderstorm activity. Since 7:30am, another 21.1mm was registered in the gauge. Adding the 2.2mm to 9am yesterday brings the total to 68.6mm as stated. smile

This brings my February 2017 total to 132.9mm, my 2017 total to 160.2mm, and my Summer 2016/2017 total to 253.1mm! The last time I had a monthly rainfall total over 100mm was October last year, with 123.2mm. smile

The rain was VERY intense at times this morning that's for sure; it absolutely bucketed down for 5 minutes while I was passing through Tecoma and Upwey on my way to Boronia around 7:45am; very dark with low cloud over the Dandenongs at the time. And yet, to the west I could see mostly clear skies! crazy

Thankfully I didn't have to contend with too much flooding. However on the way home after 3pm I discovered that Mountain Highway between The Basin and Sassafras had suffered a landslip.

The majority of activity just barely missed Boronia, although a few heavy showers did inevitably come through, the last of which cleared off after 2pm. And apart from a coolish breeze and partly cloudy conditions, it was a mild afternoon with abundant sunshine! smile

Reached a high of 20.4C here in Belgrave today, following an overnight low of 8.5C (tying with February 15th 2017 for my coldest February night on record). Currently around 17C. Still partly cloudy out there with a few isolated showers about. smile

I haven't seen the "bay-effect" at work like that in ages!! grin

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#1408918 - 20/02/2017 19:45 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Great fall asf 😀
We finished with 19mm up here and
Not sure if I should be calling this now
But I reckon that's pretty much snuffed
The fire season around here?? 🤔🤔

Been a couple of the coldest days in February
That I can ever remember!! Held off
From lighting the fire but instead put the
Split con under a fair bit off pressure

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#1409044 - 21/02/2017 18:38 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
ASF - that rainfall is amazing, and surely will end the chances of a catastrophic fire event for your location this summer?

After a cool night here, a lovely calm sunny day, reaching circa 28C by my measurement.

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#1409055 - 21/02/2017 19:51 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Truly amazing ASF! Yeah, that eastern fringe of metro Melb and the hills to the east really did get (as you describe) a significant amount - unexpected and, for that type of rain, (I would say) quite unseasonable.

Bit of a stuff-up with my gauge ... but I think about 7mm all up for me here in Sarsfield.

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#1409066 - 21/02/2017 21:00 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Thanks Doogasnow, Petros, and ThunderBob! Yes my corner of Melbourne is in a favourable geographic position for these sorts of "bay-effect" events during cold outbreaks. smile

But we are also prone to direct-hits from heavy showers and thunderstorms that develop in the warmer/hotter air along/ahead of cold fronts and/or low pressure troughs, especially in spring and summer, and then move down from the northwest (usually along a line that stretches southeast-northwest through the City towards the Ballarat/Macedon Ranges region); the "bay-effect" can sometimes help induce sudden storm develop just to our west/northwest, increasing the likelihood of Belgrave taking a direct-hit from severe weather! The supercell that unleashed the costly March 6th 2010 Melbourne Hailstorm was a classic example btw! smile

It actually isn't too unusual for the Dandenong Ranges to get such intense rainfall during the warm season, in fact it's when our precipitation tends to be heaviest (even though it usually falls less frequently than during the colder months). But most of the time that sort of rainfall is linked to warm-season pre-frontal/trough heavy shower and thunderstorm activity, as was the case for us on December 29th last year, when we clocked up 56.0mm in 2.5 hours.

We can also get heavy rainfall that's linked to the "wrap-around" of a low pressure system to the east/southeast (such as an ECL) affecting the Melbourne area. Assuming the wind is coming from the southwest, the "wrap-around" is sometimes further enhanced by the "bay-effect" from Port Phillip.

And while we can also get "convergence boundaries", they're usually "seabreeze boundaries" separating marine air from Port Phillip, Western Port and Bass Strait from hot, humid northerly winds from NSW/ACT and Queensland in the summer, sometimes further enhanced by the Great Dividing Range. If conditions are unstable, even if mid-level or upper-level steering is poor, these wind boundaries can become conducive to heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Melbourne area.

And as stated earlier, we often get heavy rainfall during cold outbreaks (summer or winter), but winds usually have to be out of the southwest. "Convergence boundaries" can often become established along a line from about Cape Otway/Surf Coast northeast towards the Yarra Ranges and Marysville, with the Dandenong Ranges often in the "line of fire"... as was certainly the case on Sunday/Monday! But that sort of "bay-effect convergence boundary" rainfall is EXCEPTIONALLY rare! grin

Still yet to break my all-time 24-hour rainfall record of 181mm, set on February 3rd 2005; who else remembers this storm event across Eastern Australia, especially here in Victoria? smile

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/vic/2005feb/index.shtml

Anyway, glad you guys got some rainfall and a bit of excitement too. wink

As for today...

Overnight low of 8.5C (tying with February 15th and yesterday for my record February low); dawned cold and mostly clear with heavy dew. eek

Reached a warm, mostly sunny 27.0C here in Belgrave this arvo; it sure felt hot in the Sun while I was in the City today. But nice to have the warmth back! smile

Currently around 16C. Another chilly night ahead, before Melbourne goes for a hot 34C tomorrow, but wouldn't rule out 35-36C. poke

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#1409076 - 21/02/2017 21:49 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Forgot to mention that there was a light mist through the gum trees here in Belgrave, looked so beautiful as the sun was coming up around 7:45am while on the bus to the train station on my way to the City! smile

A sight I normally only see in late-autumn and winter, typically May and June. smile

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#1411217 - 07/03/2017 15:51 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Light breeze from ESE, only 22.5C but still 67% humidity, mongrel sort of stuff to work in, come on APRIL/MAY .. grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1411270 - 07/03/2017 23:15 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 13.1C, reached a top of 29.0C here in Belgrave today. smile

Quite windy at times last night, then a rather chilly start to the day with a bit of dew on my car before I left home for work. poke

And apart from a bit of fog in an enclosed valley just below Kinglake to the north this morning (while driving to Boronia), it was a beautifully warm, almost hot, sunny day, with hardly a cloud in the sky, and a nice cooling easterly breeze! grin

At the last check, it was around 16C. smile

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#1414971 - 24/03/2017 19:22 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather [Re: Thunder head]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Geez, it looks like Australia is surrounded by Angry Bees!


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