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#77694 - 13/02/2007 09:24 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6353
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Dew point has dropped a little with the wind picking up but the sky is promising
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#77695 - 13/02/2007 09:34 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
This should be the last hot spell with any days over 35C, generally after the 20th of February the weather starts cooling down so your plants Stormygirl should they survive the weekend should be OK from then on!

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#77696 - 13/02/2007 11:40 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
I had a look at EC model Pete and Strong high stays in the Tasman sea at least until the 22nd Feb so may last a little longer than you mentioned apart from a slight respite tomorrow and Monday next week, I'm expecting it to be hot again after Monday next week by the look of the models (30c and above) infact for the next 10-12 days I expect it to be hot.(Bar tomorrow and Monday which are still fairly warm anyway) This on going heat is only getting started.

John.

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#77697 - 13/02/2007 14:15 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Well I guess Melbourne has been lucky the last few years when it comes to having cool February's so the luck had to run out some time! Would have been nice to have have at least one of the 3 summer months this year cooler then average though...oh well!

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#77698 - 13/02/2007 18:55 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Models keen on continuing shower/storm activity for much of the week and particularly early next week. GFS is the most keen on this but tends to overestimate rainfall totals sometimes.

GASP has a cut off low forming over VIC for Tue/Wed with cooler weather. At least there are some good signs, may not be relentless heat and dry for the rest of the month.

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#77699 - 15/02/2007 20:39 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
hey guys,

just a query,

this must be close to one of melbourne's most consistently warm summers, more above average days than below, consistantly dry, and sunny. I know we have had some cooler days and storms in the vicinity every now and then.

Some kind of records must be close to or actually been broken this summer.

Anyone know what records, if any, have been broken?

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#77700 - 16/02/2007 09:30 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
No temperature records broken Norfolk (apart from perhaps the lack of rainfall) you only have to go back to the summer of 2000/2001 and the average temps for December/January/February were substantially higher:

26.2 29.1 29.1
14.8 17.8 18.3

So far for December and January this summer we've only had:

25.4 27.9
13.4 17.1

We would have to have the hottest average February temperatures ever recorded to beat the 2000/2001 summer...hope this answers your question!

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#77701 - 16/02/2007 20:36 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
Hi Pete, thanks for that info, however I was thinking about more specific stats like the amount of 30+ days this summer, sunshine hours and rainfall, (however I can guess that rainfall is at the lowest end of the graph)

from what I have seen Melbourne has had
8 30+ days in dec
10 30+ days in jan
7 30+ days in feb so far

thats 24 days so far this summer.

how does this compare to other years?

Tony

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#77702 - 17/02/2007 17:01 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
I don't have access to any records, but I'd say 24 days over 30C would be close to a record to this point in time given there are still plenty more of these forecast till the end of the month.

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#77703 - 18/02/2007 01:24 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Make that 8 now Tony after todays heatwave & be 9 tomorrow if the temp gets to 38c I personally think get to 40c tomorrow actually before change rolls in, it could easily be 11 or 12 by the end of next week and close to 13 days over 30c for Feb before the month is out which would put it close to a record of so many 30c days for Summer close to 30 days.

John.

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#77704 - 21/02/2007 19:09 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
another humid day, if it isnt heat, its humidity. But not much is falling out this way. Just looked at the radar and there is a nice line of storms from Bendigo through Seymore down to the Eildon area.

I dont think many people can say this was a typical Summer. LOL

Tony

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#77705 - 22/02/2007 20:31 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
Stats, stats and more stats!!!

Ok, I think this stat for melb in Feb is quite interesting.

If we take Melbourne's February average max to be 26, we have only had 5 days below average this February, i.e Feb 3 24.7
Feb 6 20.7
Feb 7 21.1
Feb 8 22.4
Feb 10 22.6

Which begs the questions (I love asking questions, but I very rarely know any answers!! LOL)

1. Which February has had the least amount of days below average?

2. If we include tomorrow being 31, we will have had 12 days in a row above average, is this close to a record?

Hope to hear some answers

Tony

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#77706 - 22/02/2007 20:41 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Hi Tony, Don't know the answer to question 1 & about Q.2 February not sure it is a record but as a whole no it isn't a record last year in August when we had very mild even warm August and everything bloomed early we had 18 days in a row of above average max temps I don't know if that is a record but yeah it is more than this month.

I saw David Brown tonight on channel 7 stuck his neck out and made a long range prediction and says the drought will ease/break in late Autumn (late April-May) with drenching rains for Victoria other indicators point this way too.

John.

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#77707 - 22/02/2007 21:14 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
Yes John, how easily one forgets smile I do remember 18 days in August being above average last year. As I said, 12 days above average close to a record. Still could be close to a record for February.

I am sure there are lots of interesting stats for this month happening, if only someone was just as interested as me lol

Tony

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#77708 - 22/02/2007 21:24 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Yeah for Feb could be close to a record I hope someone that is more of a professional than me can help ya out Tony :cheers:

John.

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#77709 - 22/02/2007 21:36 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
RWood Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 444
Loc: Wellington, NZ
Quote:
Originally posted by norfolk:
Yes John, how easily one forgets smile I do remember 18 days in August being above average last year. As I said, 12 days above average close to a record. Still could be close to a record for February.

I am sure there are lots of interesting stats for this month happening, if only someone was just as interested as me lol

Tony
As far as sun goes it looks as if you're well ahead of average, though not exceptionally so - For the (very short) record at Melbourne Airport the BOM site gives the hours/day averages for the 3 summer months as:

Dec 8.0 Jan 8.2 Feb 7.9
2006/07 8.8 8.5 9.3 (so far)

The averages from older data at the Reg. office are a little lower, but they can't really be used unless site comparabilities are known.

I see that in October 2006 the 9.8 hrs/day was exceptionally high.

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#77710 - 23/02/2007 16:08 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
so we could end up with an extremely wet winter? hopefully it will lift restrictions for next sumer, the 07/08 summer?!?!? wishing me widdle heart out, io grow my own fruit and veges, and rely on tank water, and a bit of grey water to do so, when i say tank,I mean two large wheely bins, one i bought, the other is my green waste
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#77711 - 23/02/2007 20:19 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
I just wonder if this humid end to summer is the begining of the end. Yes it's warm, yes some places are still quite dry, but some places are getting wet. Could be the begining of the end.

Tony

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#77712 - 23/02/2007 22:02 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
has anybody seen this? http://www.bom.gov.au/review/
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Formerly Known as "Supercell Kid"
My Wx: http://wxug.us/1r14c

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#77713 - 23/02/2007 22:12 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
thomo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2005
Posts: 2639
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
A little bit late for that, submissions close today. smile
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