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#793541 - 06/11/2009 07:47 Arctic Sea Ice - Archive
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Slow growth of sea ice in the Arctic for October. NSIDC analysis



A significant factor has been low pressure NW of Russia bringing warmer winds from the Eurosian continent. The freezing of the Kara and Barents sea seems to be later than any other recent year, including 2007.

Also of interest is the recent behaviour of the Arctic Osillcation Index. This index appears to have been more strongly negative recently than in the previous 50 or so years, and has also swung quite widely in recent months. However this chart is labelled 3 month running average and the trend seems to match the recent daily chart, so perhaps they are mixing daily figures with 3 month average figures. A negative index tends to mean cold Arctic conditions.



Edited by Seabreeze (23/10/2012 20:27)

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#793727 - 06/11/2009 17:09 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Mike Hauber]
BOM99 Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
I also noticed that temperatures were running above average across almost all of Russia until about the 3rd week of October. However now most locations have been slightly colder than average for the last couple of weeks. In fact so far for November the entire region from the Urals eastwards is traveling with slightly below normal temps. Verchoyansk has dipped into the -40's now, -43.4 this morning today, record lows at this time of year are between -45 and -49, normal low would be -35. So I tend to think that the sea ice will catch up to normal levels by the new year.

I think that one of the effects of the increased CO2 is that it is taking just a little longer in autumn to cool down. However the CO2 cannot stop the heat from escaping for long, eventauly the heat will still be lost. The bigger problem is that in summer the arctic landmasses absorb heat well and the whole arctic region is warmer in summer now due to CO2, there is little doubt about that.

The land takes the lead in delivering heat to the atmosphere then the oceans follow to display an average temperature relative to the land. Because CO2 causes extra warming in summer but has a relativley neutral effect in winter the overall effect is still an increase in anual mean temps which is reflected in the the ocean temps. And of course logicaly this is more so the case in autumn and in the oceans (oceans holding the extra heat from summer), heance we are seeing the slow freezing.

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#793735 - 06/11/2009 17:45 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: BOM99]
Simmosturf Offline
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Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
But there is no evidence so there is doubt about it Snowmy!!!

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#793909 - 07/11/2009 00:51 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Simmosturf]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
As usual snowmi you made a valuable contribution ( so did Mike)
I know you are on the verge kinda to believe of CO2 warming .
I liked your statement " However the CO2 cannot stop the heat from escaping for long , eventualy the heat will be lost "
I dont see any diffrence between summer or winter.
Here is current temps from WUWT north of 80degN

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

As you said pretty warmish

And I remember Mike said once " Iamnot sure what the yelow line means "( on R Spencer site UHA) That is undoubtable mean temps 1980-2000
There you can see warming lower troposphere and cooling stratosphere . As the atmosphere is mixing all the time , there are holes between the "irreversible inncreases of CO2 warming" . And the heat will eventualy escape regardless winter or summer , thats my stand . It dosnt mean its correct , but imagine covering your self with a blanket ( as the warmists preach a CO2 blanket around the Earth) which has million holes in it LOL

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#793992 - 07/11/2009 11:43 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Vlasta]
BOM99 Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2004
Posts: 4645
Loc: Australia
Thanks for mentioning that link Vlasta, I notice however that the graph is only for north of 80N so it only includes the area over the Arctic ocean. That is a good analogy "like a blanket full of holes". However that is why I think there is a difference in the behavoir between winter and summer. Try building a fire under a blanket full of holes and the difference in temperature will be greater with the fire going.

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#794381 - 08/11/2009 21:58 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: BOM99]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
For an hour or two of some moderately heavy reading on the fate or non fate of the Arctic Ice.
A long list of excerpts from numerous articles together with some links for more extensive reading from the "Climate Depot" blog entitled "Now Debuting: Climate Depot Arctic Fact Sheet - Get the latest peer-reviewed studies and analysis"
It appears that the latest research pinpoints shifting winds for the reduction in the Arctic's ice cover a couple of years ago.
Lots of info here.

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#794493 - 09/11/2009 13:23 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: ROM]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Sea ice is now at record low for this day of year:



Sea Ice was at record low also at start of January, climbed to the upper range of the last 8 years within a couple weeks, increased to highest since 2002 in April, reduced to be second lowest and closing in on 2007's record in July, then the melt slowed towards the middle of the pack again in September.

All short term varation, and I'm sure sometimes in the next few months sea ice will again be high compared to the previous few years, again prompting cries of 'recovery' as the long term downard trend continues.

On the subject of winds and currents. The scientific evidence shows that winds, currents, Co2 warming and black carbon have all had a significant contribution to Arctic ice melting. There is no single cause.

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#794570 - 09/11/2009 17:49 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Mike Hauber]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Of course its short term variation Mike . Not only this year , but even since the satelites data exists.
I would put the causes in this order
80% wind , currents
10% temperature
10% black carbon

As 30 years of observations is siply not long enough. Reports before that is crap and have no value.
However there is one bump late of october and one right now , where actualy sea ice area decreased . Pity that NCIDC didnt include explanation to it in their report , as it doesnt happen very often
What do you think Mike ?

As the sea ice extent is 15% or more , there can be only one explanation.
The ice is being commpressed . Question is where . I guess between H and L over russia creates the wind. That raises another question . Will this commpression make the ice less or more vulnerable during next summer ?
I would say less , but if I hear sound explanation otherwise I can change my mind .
ROM , even NCIDC and famous Nostrodamus late years M Sereze backed of their predictions of ice free Arctic in 2013 . Now it wont happen till after 2020 !! they say. Must rebuilt some reputation again LOL.
My prediction is max extent will be average and next summer min slighty above 2009

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#794740 - 10/11/2009 08:24 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Vlasta]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Vlasta

As 30 years of observations is siply not long enough.


When scientists predict a reduction of the Arctic Ice cap due to warming, how long should we wait until we've waited 'long enough' to consider these predictions significant?

Originally Posted By: Vlasta

However there is one bump late of october and one right now , where actualy sea ice area decreased . Pity that NCIDC didnt include explanation to it in their report , as it doesnt happen very often
What do you think Mike ?

As the sea ice extent is 15% or more , there can be only one explanation.
The ice is being commpressed . Question is where . I guess between H and L over russia creates the wind. That raises another question . Will this commpression make the ice less or more vulnerable during next summer ?


Having been watching Arctic weather and sea ice stats closely this summer, variations in sea ice over scales of a week or more do seem to correlate fairly well to changes in weather. However changes over a day or two such as those two bumps seem to have no correlaton to any change in weather that I can see. For instance the last few weeks there has been consistent southerlies retarding ice growth in the Barents and Kara sea, an in the last day or two when we've had that bump if anything the winds have slowed and temperatures have gone down. I think the bumps over a day or two are probably due to vagaries with the sensors abilities to detect ice which is close to the edge of the 15% threshold.

Any compression in winter should make the ice less vulnerable the following summer, as the compressions will stack the ice up thicker, and clear open ocean, which will freeze over sometime during the winter. Wind doesn't just act to compress ice at this time of year, it also causes melting. Strong winds cause mixing of the surface with deeper waters, which in normal ocean results in cooling as the deeper waters are cooler. However in the Arctic the deeper waters are warmer, so wind mixing results in warmer water being brought from below to melt the ice (and reduces the amount of heat stored in the ocean for future melting).

And the final effect of the strong winds in the Arctic is to push the thicker older ice out of the Arctic into the Atlantic if the winds are in the right direction, which they were for several weeks recently, but now are fairly weak again in that direction. Overall the past summer was dominated by weak winds, leaving the ice spread over a wider area, but probably thinner and weaker due to less compression.

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#795795 - 14/11/2009 02:46 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Mike Hauber]
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
seems there are some problems at the moment-

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

"Due to repeting data fall-out since 1st of October, the sea ice extent calculation can be unreliable. We are working on solving the problem!"

still wouldnt matter if it was correct, it seems to me that there is a long way to go before any call can be made on the melt.

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#796138 - 16/11/2009 00:51 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: mobihci]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Hmmm . There is still no offical report on NCIDC site !!
Maybe they are in a party mode , that the ice is not forming ?
JAXA updating , cryosphere today stoped on the 9th

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/


Edited by Vlasta (16/11/2009 00:54)

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#796191 - 16/11/2009 11:28 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Vlasta]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
One of the rather absurd claims going around the internet from time to time is that the Arctic ice is going through a multidecade cycle, and that the current melt is no more than during a warming period during the 20s and 30s.

One piece of evidence offered in support of this is a trip during this warming period around the Islands NW of Russia which was surprised to find open water as far north as a little more than 91 degrees north, due to unsusual warm water in the North Atlantic. In comparison this year the open water in this region reached roughly 93-94 degrees north, and the ice edge is now roughly at 91 degrees north, only two weeks away from the start of winter.

Another argument is to appeal to the crossing of the NW passage by Amundsen in 1903. During this passage Amundsen encountered significant amounts of ice, and used a small boat that could take narrower routes not open to larger vehicles that can cross the North West Passage today. In 2007 the larger, deeper and more direct northern route was open.

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#797761 - 20/11/2009 08:37 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
/Freezing of the Kara and Barents sea looks like it is going to complete soon, which is several weeks behind 2007 which is the worst I can find previously for this region. Current patterns are pushing a lot of warm wind into this area, and have contributed to the slow freeze so far. However as this region is now close to maximum winter extent, a continuation of warmth in this area will have little further effect on total ice area. I have a concern that this area is the area that warm water from the Atlantic typically enters the Arctic, and that current patterns will boost the warm water entering the Arctic for a stronger melt next year.

For global ice it appears that 2009 set an all time record low for maximum ice area, at leat according to Cryosphere Today

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#799087 - 22/11/2009 23:12 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Mike Hauber]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
I found a site where there are interesting graphs .
Average is taken 1979-2006 ( still not much difference against 1979-2000)
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

Also I everlooked few lines in 17 SEP NCIDC report

Abstract

The 2009 minimum is 1.61 million km2 below the 1979-2000 average minimum , and 1.28 million km2 below the thirty year 1979-2008 min

Wow here we go (but still no graph), 300 000 less! And every year we get minimums like 2007-2009 the diffrence will less and less . One day they will have to take running average and all graphs wont look as a proof of global warming as they do now.
Its like you say this month rain is below average and dont include the amount for next year.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2009/091709.html

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#799111 - 23/11/2009 00:21 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Vlasta]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
A thirty year record hardly a decent set of data. and for most of the last century the northwest passage has been unpassable, 15 thousand years ago you could walk across it.

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#799157 - 23/11/2009 07:23 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: marakai]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Melting ice was predicted 30 years ago. How many years of melting ice do you think we need before we can say this was a good prediction?

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#799361 - 24/11/2009 01:09 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Quote:
Scientist probes fossil oddity: Giant redwoods near North Pole
Once upon a time, Axel Heilberg Island was a very strange place.

Located within the Arctic Circle north of mainland Canada, a full 8/9ths of the way from the equator to the North Pole, the uninhabited Canadian island is far enough north to make Iceland look like a great spot for a winter getaway, and today there’s not much to it beyond miles of rocks, ice, a few mosses, and many fossils.
The fossils tell of a different era, though, an odd time about 45 million years ago when Axel Heilberg, still as close to the North Pole as it is now, was covered in a forest of redwood-like trees known as metasequoias.

Hope Jahren, an assistant professor of earth and planetary sciences in the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences at The Johns Hopkins University, recently published results that partially demystified Axel Heilberg’s vanished forests. Jahren and colleague Leo Sternberg of the University of Miami uncovered evidence that the Axel Heilberg’s forests probably received equatorial water and warmth from a prehistoric weather pattern unlike anything in existence today.

Other challenging mysteries remain, including how a forest could develop given the sunlight it would receive on Axel Heilberg. Because of its closeness to the North Pole both now and in the time of the redwoods, Axel Heilberg spends four months of each year in continuous sunlight and four months of each year in continuous darkness.

“We don’t have plants that can survive under those conditions today, let alone forests,” Jahren says. “For a tree to endure four months of daylight is like you or I going without sleep for four months.”


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-03/jhu-spf032102.php

Thing's change m8, much as we dont want them to they do. 98% of all species that have lived on Earth are now gone, some in an instant some over Millions of years, some just change and get on with life, Ice, Desert, Jungle it all chops and changes over time.

15,000 yrs ago New york was covered by an ice sheet, 20 yrs ago lake Mungo was a pristine lush area along with lake Eyre which was lush 125 , 80 , 65 , and 40,000 yrs ago, with some quite dry times in between. Both of these areas are Desert now as you know, but in time they will once again become Lush areas.

Even the Ice caps are not constant, do some research and you will find this to be a Fact.

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#799366 - 24/11/2009 06:09 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: marakai]
Simmosturf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/03/2008
Posts: 1620
Loc: Wangaratta
Good graphs Vlasta, Did you see them Mike??? Or look past them???

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#814779 - 10/01/2010 22:36 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Simmosturf]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
The Arctic oscilation index went through the floor , rather NOAA's graph which ends at -4

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

Since 1950 it hasnt been that low . DEC was -3.51 and currently its lower still.
While Arctic is about 5deg warmer , negativ oscilation prevents export of ice to lower latituds.
On the other hand it brings bitter cold to the US , China or where ever .

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#818978 - 21/01/2010 16:55 Re: Arctic Sea Ice [Re: Vlasta]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
The recent period of extreme -ve Arctic Oscillation pushing cold air out of the Arctic into Europe, Asia and North America appears to have ended, with Arctic temperatures below average for the first time since early Autumn.

Arctic Temps

GFS models seem to suggest more warm air heading Arctic direction in the next week so we may see the Arctic warming and other areas cooling again as the cold air is pushed out of the Arctic.

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