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#79594 - 19/10/2008 14:49 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Nah its fine mate. Very dry all over the SE and your rant is fine, everybodies is considering it has been more then 10 years. Next year should hopefully provide.

Regarding the thunderstorms, they should become more active over next month onwards and I think we will see a relativly late end to the Victorian storm season. Also the chance for some strong and dangerous storms this SUmmer.

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#79595 - 19/10/2008 14:49 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Humid and cloudy but nothing more than a few spits of drizzle. It's extremely dry 90% of the time and then when we get some moisture over us it is too stable for precipitation just waves of SCu nonsense, could have been a different story if the change went through this afternoon rather than overnight.

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#79596 - 19/10/2008 15:01 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Showers and storms developing along the convergence line between the humid southerlies and dry hot northerlies in the far E and NE. One of these storms meets severe criteria and a warning is out.

Hardly anyone lives out there though so we're unlikely to hear many reports other than that from the AWS.

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#79597 - 19/10/2008 15:03 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3969
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm
Storm Warning out for East Gippy. I was in Yarram yesterday and could see a huge buildup to the Nth so I really did expect to see something up in that area today.
I noticed the East/Nth East Victorain Buildup started on Thursday.Its a shame its really in no chase country. frown

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#79598 - 19/10/2008 16:31 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Storm warning now canceled for a while, but still the slight risk for a thunderstorm to pop up in that area (mostly NSW).

Fine and sunny here this afternoon with temps in the high teens and after morning drizzle which did not ammount to anything in the gauge.

Fresh southerly winds and a weak front passing through tasmania should probably deliver a few showers on and south of the ranges on Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but apart from that its dry and nothing significant on the cards over the next 5 days. The weekend still holds potential for a thunderstorm develop, so will havve to wait for the model updates to see if anything is still guranteed, however nothing is guaranteed in weather!

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#79599 - 19/10/2008 16:37 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Yeah, GFS is way ahead of Ec atm, going off doing its own thing a bit, latest update gives us a decent rain event on Tuesday, not this Tuesday but the next. EC is more keen on this weekend but the next update will tell us more about which model is leading the way.

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#79600 - 19/10/2008 16:43 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
EC to me seems to give little next weekend and seems to be looking more wet, thundery, sultry and humid Tuesday week. Seems to be mainly wind again next weekend to me with not much moisture with that at all, JMA & GFS have partically nothing again & I think EC looks worse than what it is mainly cause of the wind factor. If I had to bet at the moment would say there be very little next weekend again but the dry will break down after that.

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#79601 - 19/10/2008 16:54 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Well you can tell that the dry might break down after the weekend because of all the moisture building over the northwestern parts of Australia and in the Indian. Hopefully something of significance comes in the next few weeks at least.

I agree with John about Tuesday week. A broad trough and more stormy conditions with also warm and humid weather. Though still sitting in my opinion that this weekend might be something in the way of a couple of storms, but there is no way in this all mighty universe that I think there will be good rainfall totals. Just 1mm.

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#79602 - 19/10/2008 17:06 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Yeah, Tuesday week is probably the one to mark in the calendar atm, pity it is so far away though, I have zero confidence in models that far out at least in terms of MSLP but the moisture should be there IMO so the next decent system or troughy setup that comes through should break this incredible Spring drought IMO, rainfall should still be well below average for October but maybe a bit more respectable.

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#79603 - 19/10/2008 18:03 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
Well it was overcast all day here, apart from one little tiny drop of miniscule drizzle gor 2 seconds, nothing fell at all today.

Not much more I can say, but hey I promised to report whatever happens!

Tony

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#79604 - 19/10/2008 18:09 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Thanks Tony keep it coming.

EC is a mixed back tonight it looks abit better now weekend and Monday hard to say how much moisture be in that then the next system upstream catchs up to this lingering moisture but a long way out as far as I'm concerned so will change a million times before we get there anyway but at least there are some better signs ahead.

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#79605 - 19/10/2008 18:54 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
The massive cut off low that EC is progging at the end of the run almost certainly won't happen but broad troughy conditions with perhaps some small cut offs embedded in that look feasible, rain and storms likely in any case, but yeah it is very complex atm so could downgrade to nothing like all the previous systems we were supposed to get but at least it gives us some hope and something to follow for a change.

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#79606 - 19/10/2008 19:41 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Well I have just seen the latest EC and it is a mixed bag! I also doubt that the huge cut-off at the end of its run will happen (please be a miracle) however there it will be troughy, warm, humid and with moisture, the right conditions for widespread thunderstorms to develop early next week and on Wednesday, probably further for an extended period of time. Hopefully that holds, cause that will be the best we can do I am afraid.

For this weekend EC is looking a little more interested, lowering its wind factor and adding slightly more moisture on the cards, so hopefully also we can get a couple of storms and good showers about the state later Saturday and on Sunday but as I said no big totals above 5mm unless there is one good storm wink .

Cheers.

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#79607 - 19/10/2008 20:13 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Strangely enough I think theres some realism to what EC is throwing up with that cut off.. Reason why I say this.. For quite a few runs both EC and GFS are going for a strong LWT and cold air in the uppers early next week through the Bight and some runs both have had cut offs next week & once again both models prog this system developing in the uppers again next Monday and surfacing Tuesday onwards, only differance at the moment is.. GFS doesn't have the Sunday/Monday system but does have the following system like EC, the other differance is GFS pushes it east as it bombs east of us while EC keeps it west.
Will this happen? I think the low has a reasonable to good chance of developing given the state of the uppers early next week question is where? Perhaps somewhere inbetween the EC & GFS scenarios.. More east than EC and more west than GFS. Thats my 2c worth. Of course I could be completely wrong! :p

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#79608 - 19/10/2008 20:28 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
In between GFS and EC puts it right over the top of us, and a rather intense low but not bombing over Bass Straight and remaining almost stationary like EC says. If that comes off and particularly if we can get some convergance in a SE flow as the low moves away like GFS is saying then we could be seeing some very big falls across the state, particularly west central, Geelong and western suburbs of Melbourne, sorry I'm getting ahead of myself, lol it's more than a week out. :rolleyes:

So far away still but for the first time in I've forgotten how long we have some interesting prospects ahead.

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#79609 - 19/10/2008 21:02 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1543
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
We had a max of 24C yesterday,

13C min this morning up to 13.9C then steadily dropped and was 8.8C by late afternoon,chilly! Foggy and smelt like rain but we didnt get a drop.
One of the driest spring weeks at Mount Macedon that i have ever seen. 1mm ftw

highest temp ftw 24C
lowest temp ftw 2C

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#79610 - 19/10/2008 21:26 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
justcruising Offline
Member

Registered: 28/07/2007
Posts: 632
Loc: Elsternwick 3185
Yes guys couple of prospects on the horizon...
A little too far but beats this current heat dry and miserable weak changes...

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#79611 - 19/10/2008 21:45 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
avalon Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/07/2007
Posts: 1543
Loc: Mt Macedon Vic 870m elev
Rain next week is a certainty.Lots of it! I am heading down to Tassie for a week, it always seems to rain in Melbourne when i am away and i miss it.
Missed that really rainy week at the end of March this year, havent been away since,so stacks of rain next week is a definite. Hope so!

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#79612 - 19/10/2008 22:04 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
jase72 Offline
Member

Registered: 29/01/2006
Posts: 1130
Loc: Roxburgh Park Victoria. Soon t...
it was a very chilly 17c today and very low cloud and a strong southerley most of the day with some sun around 4:30pm but then the cloud came in again. Sitting on 12.5c here now and the ground is getting drier by the minute.

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#79613 - 19/10/2008 22:24 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
TrenthamStormchasers Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 15/04/2001
Posts: 6258
Loc: Trentham 705m
Went for a look-see around central Victoria today and played tag with the front...left Trentham about 11am (14C) up to Heathcote (22C) and to Bendigo (27C!!), spent too much money that I don't have, then back to Trentham (8.9C!!! with the cold air definitely getting over the ranges byt that stage) and onto to Woodend (10.2C)

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