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#1045141 - 18/12/2011 01:25 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Arnost]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003



That is a really interesting thread, I read most of it when it was linked to earlier.

Many of you (and Arnost for sure) were ahead of your time back then.

It is also very interesting that most of the same topics are still being discussed today.

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#1045582 - 19/12/2011 08:33 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
What the temperature trend over the last 30 years looks like if 'corrections' for ENSO, volcanic aerosols, and solar activity are made:



(source)

Of course we all know that since this is from Tamino, and Tamino is a 'warmista' the graph must be wrong, and no explanation for why the graph is wrong is required.


Seems not everyone agrees with Foster and Rahmstorf but Tamino doesn't seem too keen to have any open discussion on the subject. What a surprise. Given the significant errors pointed out I'm not quite sure how the paper got pal reviewed. Ooops I answered my own question there.

Here are some issues that Frank Lassner has raised.

1) F&R assume that temperature change from for exaple El Nino or period of raised Solar activity etc. will dissapear fully immediately after such an event ends. F&R assumes that heat does not accumulate from one temperature event to the next.
2) Missing corrections for PDO
3) Missing corrections for human aerosols – (supposed to be important)
4) Missing corrections for AMO
5) F&R could have mentioned the effect of their adjustments before 1979
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1046803 - 22/12/2011 13:17 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Locke]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003


Foster and Rahmstorf adjust temperatures in their own way. I've decided to add the volcano adjustment to my reconstructions (the volcano-adjustment is really an arbitrary estimate because we don't have really good data to base it on so that is why I resisted that before.)

But now that I am including it, here is the volcano-adjusted UAH/RSS average since 1979 versus the ENSO (now the ENSO influence is much more clear).

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/4235/volcadjuahrssensonov11.png





Now let's pull the ENSO and the AMO out of this and see how much warming there is in the UAH/RSS average for the lower troposphere (which is supposed to be warming at 1.3 times that of the surface).

The UAH/RSS average then falls to 0.042C per decade or just 15% of that predicted by the theory for the lower troposhere, 0.28C per decade (1.3 times the surface rate of 0.22C per decade).

http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/7739/warmingvolcensoamouahrs.png




So this becomes my final review of Foster 2011, not accurate.

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#1047065 - 23/12/2011 10:58 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Bill Illis]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
Does anyone know what the UAH temp global anomaly is running at for December so far?

Heres the lastest 7 day temp anomaly....

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07b.rnl.html

Alot of Northern Africa and most of Asia has been running below average temps
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#1047120 - 23/12/2011 12:29 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1053
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Does anyone know what the UAH temp global anomaly is running at for December so far?

Heres the lastest 7 day temp anomaly....

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07b.rnl.html

Alot of Northern Africa and most of Asia has been running below average temps


When adjusted for anomalies in the results, they will have returned extreme above average temperatures ;-)

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#1056310 - 15/01/2012 11:09 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Coxy]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
This very cold summer in SE Australia is starting to really reinforce the claim that temps have plateu'd since about 2005/6. Even Antarctic stations like Mawson are having a cold summer. This would have to be one of the coldest January weeks that I can remember, to get quite a few locations recording the lowest January temperature on record like this week is pretty significant.
I am noticing the same trend at my location as Armidale that although the 30 year trend shows a rise, the last 5 years is directionless. I think this same trend is quite widespread.
It would be most interesting if the trend could actually turn a corner and return temps to the 80's.

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#1057258 - 16/01/2012 23:53 Re: Temperature trends [Re: GrizzlyBear]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3909
And just in time for AR5, changes to Hadley temps (SSTs and Land and Ocean)! Before you have a look at pages 5 and 6 here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/e/PresentationMOSAC_16.4_Gordon.pdf

do you want to bet that they will go down? LOL - well they did in the 40's ... and went up in the'00's so that 2005 and 2010 are hotter than 1998. See how easy it is to prove the models right... [see Bishop Hill and James Annan.]
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And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1057338 - 17/01/2012 09:14 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Arnost]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
At my place, this summer so far is the coolest in the 13 on my record.
With a mean summer mean temperature of 25.1, the two coolest to date were 99-00 with 23.9 and 07-08 with 23.1. (The hottest was 05-06, with 26.3.)
Now the first half of this summer has 21.4, which is much cooler.
However, the temperature in the first half of summer is a poor predictor of that in the whole summer. Temperature rose steadily from cool in mid-December to hot in early February in both 08-09 and 10-11.
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#1057376 - 17/01/2012 10:24 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Surly Bond]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1053
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: Surly Bond
At my place, this summer so far is the coolest in the 13 on my record.
With a mean summer mean temperature of 25.1, the two coolest to date were 99-00 with 23.9 and 07-08 with 23.1. (The hottest was 05-06, with 26.3.)
Now the first half of this summer has 21.4, which is much cooler.
However, the temperature in the first half of summer is a poor predictor of that in the whole summer. Temperature rose steadily from cool in mid-December to hot in early February in both 08-09 and 10-11.


Do you have stats to the same point in the summers? Would be an interesting comparison.

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#1057446 - 17/01/2012 12:32 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Coxy]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Coxy, I think its pretty certain that in parts of the CT's and parts of SE Australia the first 1.5 month of summer have been the coldest on record. But as Surly says still another 1.5 month to go so catch up could still happen. However early model indications suggest average or below average temps for the foreseeable future atm.

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#1057450 - 17/01/2012 12:40 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Coxy]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Can do, Coxy.

These are my figures for the mean daily mean temperatures in summer at Manilla.
"Whole" means the mean for December, January and February.
"Half" means the mean from December 1 to January 16.
"Diff" means the "Half" value minus the "Whole" value.
Means do not include summer 11-12.

Summer mean temps
Date Whole Half Diff
99-00 23.8 22.5 -1.3
00-01 25.7 24.9 -0.8
01-02 24.6 24.1 -0.5
02-03 25.7 24.3 -1.5
03-04 25.8 26.1 +0.3
04-05 24.7 24.1 -0.5
05-06 26.3 26.0 -0.3
06-07 25.9 25.5 -0.4
07-08 23.1 23.6 +0.4
08-09 24.9 24.4 -0.5
09-10 25.9 26.2 +0.2
10-11 24.8 23.1 -1.8
11-12 xx.x 21.4 +x.x
Mean 25.1 24.6 -0.6

On the average, the first half of summer is 0.6 degrees cooler than the whole summer. If that happened this time, the summer mean of 22.0 would still be the coolest.
If this summer's first half is 1.8 degrees cooler than the whole, as in summer 10-11, then the summer mean of 23.2 would be the second coolest, after summer 07-08.

The reason the first half of summer is cooler than the whole is that the hottest day is in the second half. On the curves for normal temperatures, the highest daily max is January 20th, the highest daily mean, January 25th, and the highest daily min is January 31st. I believe that these dates are unusually early, and that most other Australian places with a strong summer-winter cycle have later dates for peak temperature.
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#1057456 - 17/01/2012 12:53 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Surly Bond]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1053
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Cheers. That's about what I expected. Obviously a 13 year trend in one location isn't much relevance to the global temperature set, but it's interesting nonetheless. I don't have such stats for my area (Jindalee, Brisbane) but I do know that 3 of the last 4 summers, including this one notwithstanding 6 weeks to go, have been pretty "cool" compared to what I've grown up to expect. But my parents point out it's very similar to the summers they experienced in Brisbane in the 1970s.
So it just goes to show that weather patterns are often cyclical, and those cycles might well be 30-40 years or longer. Thus "13-month running averages" and other similar short term trends are rather pointless and a bad example of cherry picking. IMHO.

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#1057470 - 17/01/2012 13:18 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Coxy]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Coxy

While I agree that " a 13 year trend in one location isn't much relevance to the global temperature set", the key word is "trend".
The pattern of temperature change in time is relevant, even for such a short record. There is what I consider an astonishing similarity between the patterns at Manilla and those for the world, as I posted in "Observations of climate variation".
_________________________
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#1057473 - 17/01/2012 13:26 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
In the graph I just linked, the world-wide cold episode in late 2007 matches the cold summer here in 2007-08 that this cold summer may perhaps beat.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1057550 - 17/01/2012 16:00 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Surly Bond]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1053
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
True enough. I don't have the knowledge/research/investigation behind me to argue any different :-)

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#1057688 - 17/01/2012 21:23 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Coxy]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Gambatte kudasai, Coxy-san!
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1059475 - 21/01/2012 22:39 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Surly Bond]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
A couple of very interesting articles on weather and not a mention of climate change even though one of the authors was an IPCC reviewer in 2007

Roger Pielke Sr's "Climate Science" blog has a Guest Post By Madhav Khandekar “Winter 2011-2012: Another Cold & Snowier Winter For India with a link to an indian blog "Rajan's Take: Climate Change" [ Jan 9th ] which is a very interesting read on the recent Indian weather from a rising global power from which we rarely get any weather news.

And the weather pattern changes are all being put down to a possibly major shift in the Atlantic Oscillation.

Quote:
In fact the entire tribal belt of Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, Kullu and Chamba districts witnessed heavy snowfall. Shahpur and parts of Hamirpur among other places also experienced snowfall and sleet after a gap of more than three decades. And it's snowing in 'Queen of Hills' Shimla as well. This after 8 years! The minimum temperature recorded in the hill station fell to minus 0.8 degree C.

Dharamsala received snow after a gap of 35 long years. Located at a height of only 1,350 metre and the abode of Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, Dharamsala was totally covered in white, making the town more picturesque. In fact the snowfall was unusually heavy with McLeodganj, its tiny hamlet, known for its strong British heritage, receiving some of the heaviest snowfall on record.
Even Nurpur experienced snow. This after 45 years. But what really took weather forecasters by surprise was heavy snow lower down in Kangra town. This was after a gap of a whopping 67 years! The peculiarity of Kangra, Nupur and Dharmasala are that these are foothills where snowfall is not normally expected because of their low elevation. But Himachal Pradesh is not complaining. Good amount of snowfall has not only rejuvenated its glaciers, but also proved beneficial for its tourism industry, with scores of tourists making a beeline to the hill state. Hotel accommodation and flights are reportedly fully booked.

It gets even better. Probably for the first time in the recorded history of Punjab, several villages of Pathankot and Hoshiarpur districts experienced snowfall on Saturday morning. The two districts normally experience maximum temperature of up to 45 degrees Celsius in summer. The Met office however dismissed the event as a 'freak' happening due to change in wind directions.

&

So what do weather ensemble models indicate? As seen in the above graph, some show the AO index rebounding and going positive while others (the majority) have it trending negative and ending below zero.

Two weathermen think on similar lines. On Twitter, former Accuweather and now with WeatherBell, legendary weatherman Joe Bastardi observed: “10mb [stratospheric] warming on European [model] over the pole by 360 hrs reaches 50C!!!! This is a huge event and will have [northern] hemisphere cold implications…By that I mean, something major is about to happen.”

Henry Margusity Accuweather also anticipating a major change similarly observed: “This is such an amazing weather pattern evolving. I told all the [meteorologists] that we have a lot of winter ahead of us.”

It was left to Dave Tolleris of Wxrisk to make a more nuanced statement about a possible pattern change. He stated: “All this being said this does NOT mean the winter of 2011-12 is about to turn nasty for everyone and or the Northeast is going to see big snows or noreasters. …It might turn that way but we don’t know that yet. But the old winter pattern of 2011-12 that has featured sustained warm/ mild dry pattern is going to end soon. And whatever the new pattern … won’t be the same as what the last 45-60 days have been.”


Roger Pielke Sr also has a post Sahara Snow On January 17 2012 – Is It Unprecedented?

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#1059497 - 21/01/2012 23:39 Re: Temperature trends [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
More corruption of global temperature data;

The Icelandic Saga Continues
Quote:



Just to recap, we have learnt that GISS temperatures for Iceland and Greenland have been artificially adjusted, with the result that current temperatures appear much warmer than when compared with the warm period during the 1940’s. Temperature data for Reykjavik from the Iceland Met Office confirmed that this adjustment was wholly artificial and resulted in a net warming of about a half a degree centigrade since 1940 and that the actual mean temperatures in the last decade are about a degree less than GISS show.

I also have data from the Iceland Met Office for two other stations, Stykkisholmur and Akureyri and these show the same pattern of adjustments as the graphs below illustrate.

&
Quote:
This issue raises several points of concern :-

1) These are palpably not “one-off” adjustments, which might be justified for station location changes or other local reasons. Have they been made as a result of a deliberate decision by GHCN, or are they the result of an error or a faulty piece of software?

2) If the result of error, what does this tell us about the quality control procedures at GHCN and GISS?

3) How many other similar adjustments have been made previously that have not been spotted? Would these have been uncovered without the attention of independent observers?

4) If GHCN believe the adjustments are justified, why have they not published their results and reasons for discussion, before issuing the revision? According to their CHANGELOG “GHCNMv3.1.0 is released with several minor corrections and a reworking of internal arrays for more efficient operations.” No mention of large scale temperature adjustments!

5) What assurance do we have that more changes of this sort won’t be made in future?


There's more!

GHCN Say It Can’t Be That Cold In Greenland

[ GHCN / "Global Historical Climate Network". A global collection of about 1200 long established weather stations with very long records , reduced from some 5000 stations a few years ago, that are supposed to represent the global climate data records.
Reducing the number of stations to 1200 world wide has meant that in-filling of data taken from a GHCN station is now used to extend and infill for some 1200 kms radius around that station if no other GHCN stations are within that radius.

example; If there was no GHCN station in Tasmania and no other GHCN stations were anywhere around which is the situation in most of Africa, most of Asia, Siberia and central Asia, and if Broken Hill was a GHCN station, it's data would be used to infill data for northern Tasmania, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, all within a radius of 1200 kms of Broken Hill.
Southern Tasmania outside of the 1200 kms radius like most of the global oceans are would be estimated and the data blocks infilled from modeled temperatures.]
On such is the claimed GHCN global temperatures based.
Thats the type of global temperature network on which data for the so called Global Warming / Climate Change is based.

Which is also why the NASA AMSRE UAH satellite temperature data run by [ skeptics ] Roy Spencer and John Christy which covers the whole globe but also has some problems is increasingly regarded as by far the most trustworthy global temperature data record.]


Examples of further [ deliberate? ] corruption of data can be seen in the graphs from C3 headlines.

Fabricating Fake Temperatures

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#1059703 - 22/01/2012 12:08 Re: Temperature trends [Re: ROM]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
With the cheapness of AWS gear now there should be not excuse not to have a station for every 10km covering the whole Earth. For the Earth that would be one station for every 100 square km, (every 10x10km). You would only need 1,489,390 AWS to cover all the land of the Earth, not that much really. Would cost a lot less than the carbon tax just for Australia alone, and would take Meteorology light years ahead of where it is now.


Edited by PeterDuke (22/01/2012 12:12)

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#1059782 - 22/01/2012 14:16 Re: Temperature trends [Re: GrizzlyBear]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Anyone noticed the free-falling global temps this month as measured by the AMSU website @ 600mb? Has now surpassed that of January 2008, which was in itself very low.

The GFS 2 metre global temperature anomalies have also plummeted. I would be surprised if the January global temp anomalies don't fall into the negatives when the reading comes out early next month.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001

http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_t2m_bias.html

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/raw_temp_c.html
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