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#1059799 - 22/01/2012 14:42 Re: Temperature trends [Re: SGB]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Just to add to that, a nice little paper by Joe Bastardi on the subject:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/BASTARDI_STORY.pdf
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#1064128 - 26/01/2012 12:46 Re: Temperature trends [Re: SGB]
SGB Offline
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Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Talk about a cold January... I realise this is most probably in response to the ~3 month lag period related to La Niña, but nonetheless it's a pretty big drop and looks like staying low for the short term (next few weeks) at least. Any other explanations as to why these anomalies have dropped so much?

[img:center][/img]
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#1064322 - 26/01/2012 17:00 Re: Temperature trends [Re: SGB]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
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#1064423 - 26/01/2012 18:48 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
SGB Offline
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Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra


Haha! Love it and totally not surprised... Of course there's an agenda. wink

Thanks for the link Johnno!
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#1064478 - 26/01/2012 19:42 Re: Temperature trends [Re: SGB]
GrizzlyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2011
Posts: 2359
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
Would it not be funny is CO2 lowered temperatures by inhibiting infra red radiation transfer through the atmosphere. Heat could be absorbed within shorter distances within the atmosphere because of CO2 and the energy released and lost in other ways that were not expected. This could be in the form of stronger localized winds, stronger rain events and storms at the expense of the rest of the atmosphere warming as much. This you could argue would also have to warm the atmosphere, like stirring a bowel of water raises its temperature. But what if the energy has instead gone into more erosion due these events or been pumped up to the tropopause in storms where it is dissipated into space, or even into the increasing earthquakes by slightly altering temperature distribution that is altering global circulation which could affect tectonic activity.

Slight changes in the sun are still the more likely cause however nothing seems to be clear cut anymore all ideas need to be on the table to account for observations just like with any physics.

The real litmus test will be when we know at what level glaciers stabilize. Because we have recovered from a little ice age we still have a poor understanding of where glacier levels should be in the current climate.


Edited by PeterDuke (26/01/2012 19:49)

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#1064655 - 26/01/2012 23:41 Re: Temperature trends [Re: GrizzlyBear]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/global-cooling-coming-archibald-uses-solar-and-surface-data-to-predict-4-9c-fall/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JoNova+%28JoNova%29
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#1064992 - 27/01/2012 10:36 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
I would like to hear the thoughts of Bill, Mike, Arnost and others on this big drop in tempertures that we have seen this month of January globally... I am hearing reports it could come as low as -0.2c or possibily even lower (closer to -0.3c) depending how this week goes which is another cold week for alot of the globe.. Was this expected this anomaly for Jan? Or does it surpass anyones prediction in here? Will it be the biggest Monthly drop in decades? Surely La Nina alone (which is weak to moderate at best) would not be causing this? Other factors? Quiet sun? The Atlantic? The Cold PDO?


Edited by _Johnno_ (27/01/2012 10:36)
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#1065072 - 27/01/2012 12:02 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
Note the very long period from May 2010 to the present, some 21 months where Out going Long wave Radiation [ OLR ] has been continuously positive, ie as below, the earth is losing heat energy [ watts / sq metre ] in and around the equatorial regions that cover half the perimeter of the planet from 170 E to 170 W.

And this is the main planetary region where incoming solar radiation has the greatest impact on the all important ocean heat content and through that, on the global atmospheric temperatures.
This may not be the sole reason for the drop in global temperatures but it is likely to be another very important factor.

Bob Tisdale in fact claims that La Nina's with their clear and relatively cloudless skies across the equatorial Pacific are actually the Ocean heat recharge side of the ENSO but the positive OLR ie; outgoing Long wave Radiation somewhere near the infra red spectrum bands, in this region during a La Nina is a puzzle to me.

From the BOM's ENSO commentary; http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Cloudiness near the dateline:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.

If you go to the "South Pacific" infra red maps [ "Pacific" is found by mousing over "Basins"] you can see the remarkable lack of clouds across the central equatorial Pacific. Conversely to the NW of Australia where the Pacific Warm Pool seems to have temporarily migrated to there is very heavy could cover. If you google for OLR maps you will see negative OLR anomalies in that cloud covered Eastern Indian Ocean equatorial location to the NW of Australia and positive OLR anomalies in the near cloudless Arabian Sea and in the equatorial Pacific.

Now this is only a part of the explanations for the current rapid and probably temporary drop in global temperatures but I suspect that the long term La Nina and the very long period of positive OLR's; ie more heat energy being radiated back into space than is being absorbed by the oceans, out of the main solar heat absorbing ocean regions of the planet around and on the equatorial Pacific is a significant reason for the drop in temps.
And don't forget that the maximum solar heat input to that equatorial ocean area only lasts about 8 hours before the heat energy input drops off with the low sun angles and then the radiation of accumulated ocean surface heat back into a clear sky really gets going through the night.

Think of those cold clear nights when it really gets cold due to the unimpeded radiation of the day's heat back into the night skies compared to the clouded nights when it stays reasonably warm and you will see the significance of a cloudless sky and the link with much higher OLR 's.

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#1065184 - 27/01/2012 14:00 Re: Temperature trends [Re: ROM]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628

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#1065221 - 27/01/2012 14:52 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
I would like to hear the thoughts of Bill, Mike, Arnost and others on this big drop in tempertures that we have seen this month of January globally... I am hearing reports it could come as low as -0.2c or possibily even lower (closer to -0.3c) depending how this week goes which is another cold week for alot of the globe.. Was this expected this anomaly for Jan? Or does it surpass anyones prediction in here? Will it be the biggest Monthly drop in decades? Surely La Nina alone (which is weak to moderate at best) would not be causing this? Other factors? Quiet sun? The Atlantic? The Cold PDO?


La Nina often causes a spike downwards in January, although this is most obvious in the first La Nina of a multi-year event, and in the second year the effect is quite small. There is certainly more than La Nina involved here.

One possible candidate is the Arctic. Recently there has been a strong surge of warm air into the Arctic from the Atlantic. This has forced cold Arctic air out into Russia and Canada. The arctic is not included in UAH so this will result in a cooling of the part of the globe that UAH does measure even if the average temperature of the globe stays the same.

And the lack of clouds in the Pacific does play a part. This results in more heat absorbed from solar radiation and the ocean warms up (which is a significant factor contributing the ultimate demise of a La Nina). But at the same time more cloud over land results in cooling as heat is reflected to space, and the land cools down. As land temperatures change faster than ocean temperatures this results in a net cooling effect for the planet.

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#1065354 - 27/01/2012 17:10 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Aren't they working on some adjustments to the UAH data. My understanding is that its been reading a little warm in recent years due to instrumentation issues.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065457 - 27/01/2012 18:57 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Locke]
ROM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/01/2007
Posts: 6628
This might be what you are looking for Locke
From Roy Spencer's site;

Addressing Criticisms of the UAH Temperature Dataset at 1/3 Century

Quote:
We are always working to provide the best products, and we may soon have another adjustment to account for an apparent spurious warming in the last few years of the aging Aqua AMSU (see operational notes here).


And from the link in that quote, the operational notes' Dec 2011 ; http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.01Dec2011

Unlike the climate modelling groups and the increasingly notoriously closed shop CRU and GISS Hokey Team, Spencer and Christy have laid out in the open, the problems and their solutions or adjustments to the satellite temperature data for all to see.

And just for interest a para from the above notes ; 18th july 2009 ;

"The important point in all of this is that the overall global trend of the entire time series ranges insignificantly from +0.123 to +0.125 C/decade even under the different merging methods used to date. This is because the removal of the annual cycle of differences from satellite to satellite does not add any bias to the time series, so the overall trend doesn't change."

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#1065921 - 28/01/2012 00:59 Re: Temperature trends [Re: ROM]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: ROM
Note the very long period from May 2010 to the present, some 21 months where Out going Long wave Radiation [ OLR ] has been continuously positive, ie as below, the earth is losing heat energy [ watts / sq metre ] in and around the equatorial regions that cover half the perimeter of the planet from 170 E to 170 W.

And this is the main planetary region where incoming solar radiation has the greatest impact on the all important ocean heat content and through that, on the global atmospheric temperatures.
This may not be the sole reason for the drop in global temperatures but it is likely to be another very important factor.

Bob Tisdale in fact claims that La Nina's with their clear and relatively cloudless skies across the equatorial Pacific are actually the Ocean heat recharge side of the ENSO but the positive OLR ie; outgoing Long wave Radiation somewhere near the infra red spectrum bands, in this region during a La Nina is a puzzle to me.

From the BOM's ENSO commentary; http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Cloudiness near the dateline:
Cloudiness near the dateline has remained suppressed over the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the dateline, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.

If you go to the "South Pacific" infra red maps [ "Pacific" is found by mousing over "Basins"] you can see the remarkable lack of clouds across the central equatorial Pacific. Conversely to the NW of Australia where the Pacific Warm Pool seems to have temporarily migrated to there is very heavy could cover. If you google for OLR maps you will see negative OLR anomalies in that cloud covered Eastern Indian Ocean equatorial location to the NW of Australia and positive OLR anomalies in the near cloudless Arabian Sea and in the equatorial Pacific.

Now this is only a part of the explanations for the current rapid and probably temporary drop in global temperatures but I suspect that the long term La Nina and the very long period of positive OLR's; ie more heat energy being radiated back into space than is being absorbed by the oceans, out of the main solar heat absorbing ocean regions of the planet around and on the equatorial Pacific is a significant reason for the drop in temps.
And don't forget that the maximum solar heat input to that equatorial ocean area only lasts about 8 hours before the heat energy input drops off with the low sun angles and then the radiation of accumulated ocean surface heat back into a clear sky really gets going through the night.

Think of those cold clear nights when it really gets cold due to the unimpeded radiation of the day's heat back into the night skies compared to the clouded nights when it stays reasonably warm and you will see the significance of a cloudless sky and the link with much higher OLR 's.





This little area is really Earth's thermostat.

The anomalies can be plus/minus 50 watts/m2. Anyone in the global energy budget business should recognize these are huge numbers.

When the chart is yellow, the Earth is cooling off. When it is blue, the Earth is warming up. You can actually track it against the changes in the daily AMSU satellite temps (short lag of 15 to 30 days).

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#1065962 - 28/01/2012 03:15 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Bill Illis]
SGB Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/04/2010
Posts: 221
Loc: Canberra
Excellent post re: OLR there ROM... I had not previously considered this index, nor admittedly did I know about it. Will be paying more attention to it now to be sure!

Originally Posted By: Bill Illis
The anomalies can be plus/minus 50 watts/m2. Anyone in the global energy budget business should recognize these are huge numbers.

When the chart is yellow, the Earth is cooling off. When it is blue, the Earth is warming up. You can actually track it against the changes in the daily AMSU satellite temps (short lag of 15 to 30 days).


Bill, I track the AMSU temps almost daily, I'm eager now to do as you mentioned, track against AMSU changes ... Thanks for the Layman's explanation there too, "yellow = cool, blue = warm" etc... I normally need that kinda info to start off the learning curve. smile
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#1068394 - 30/01/2012 11:36 Re: Temperature trends [Re: SGB]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6050
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years
By David Rose

Last updated at 5:38 AM on 29th January 2012


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/a...zing-again.html

"The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.
The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.
Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.......

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#1068401 - 30/01/2012 11:52 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
some climate scientists have been saying for decades that natural variability could cancel out Co2 warming for periods of up to 20 years. The said this at least as early as Hansen in the early 80s. Then when natural variability cancels our Co2 warming for a 15 year period some people act as if something unexpected has happened, and claim that natural variability must be more significant than scientists said it was.


Edited by teckert (30/01/2012 12:31)
Edit Reason: no trolling thanks!

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#1068430 - 30/01/2012 13:01 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Some climate scientists have been saying that natural variability can cause warming for periods of up to 20 years or more. It works both ways. Natural variability can contribute to both cooling and warming.

Identifying the level of involvement of CO2 in temperature change is impossible until natural variability is better understood. At the moment there is insufficient data to verify the consistency of computer models for timeframes being used by those who present the CAGW hypothesis.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1068438 - 30/01/2012 13:16 Re: Temperature trends [Re: Locke]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6050
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
From the weather not climate area
"Sydney finally cracks 30 degrees
Press Release, Monday January 30, 2012 - 13:00 EDT
Sydney has just ended its longest summer-spell-below-30-degrees in 15 years, according to weatherzone.com.au.

After a 60-day break, Sydney has finally reached 30 degrees, ending the longest summer run below 30 since 1996/97. In that summer there were 61 consecutive days below 30 degrees. The record number of consecutive summer days below 30 degrees is 90, set in 1952/53. During that summer, not one day reached 30 degrees."
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydney-finally-cracks-30-degrees/20270

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#1068989 - 31/01/2012 11:07 Re: Temperature trends [Re: bd bucketingdown]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1745
70-80% of Continetal Asia was colder than normal the past week.. Can't recall seeing that before.. Remembering how big Asia is

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_07b.rnl.html
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#1069069 - 31/01/2012 14:19 Re: Temperature trends [Re: _Johnno_]
Vlasta Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2008
Posts: 972
Loc: Melbourne Seaford
Pity , Earth Observatory doesnt have current anomaly . Its worth waiting tho .

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MOD_LSTAD_M

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