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#80314 - 12/01/2009 11:08 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
It's a completely different airmass tomorrow Tony, coming straight down from NW WA where all the heat is so the humidity will plummet and the temperature will soar as soon as that airmass arrives.

Trust me, lol. wink

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#80315 - 12/01/2009 11:13 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Tell you what Tony.. Andrew, Jake and I won't post for a month if it won't get to at least 35c in Melbourne tomorrow thats how confidant we are it will be a hot stinking day wink

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#80316 - 12/01/2009 11:21 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
Oh I am not doubting heat will not arrive, thats why all along I have been saying low 30's rather than high 30's because what I see happening is low cloud in the morning, some heating when the cloud burns off and then the dreaded seabreeze winning out again, it's that little bit of heat that will bake the north today tomorrow and the rest of the weak that will struggle to get down here except for a short amount of time, so yes I am still saying 32 maybe up to 34/35 but that's all.

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#80317 - 12/01/2009 11:25 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by Johnoo:
Tell you what Tony.. Andrew, Jake and I won't post for a month if it won't get to at least 35c in Melbourne tomorrow thats how confidant we are it will be a hot stinking day wink
Well the BOM are going for 37C so I think you could be right. They are never usually wrong here, and when they do they never usually over estimate but underestimate.
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#80318 - 12/01/2009 11:27 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Yeah I still think 37c as well nothing changed in my book. I can pratically gurantee Tony tomorrow morning there will be no low cloud & if there is be gone by 8am I can also gurantee you there will be no seabreezes not your area anyway and I think Most of Melbourne won't have a seabreeze tomorrow only chance is around Frankston area. It's just not the right set up for a seabreeze day tomorrow.

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#80319 - 12/01/2009 11:35 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
42C right across the far north of the state on Wednesday, Wangaratta, Echuca, Shepparton, Mildura. Swan Hill going for 43C. Looks like that will be the really extreme day inland. Melbourne and coastal areas should get a southerly change coming through, but depending on the time of day that happens it could be hotter on Wednesday in Melbourne than what is suggested.

Tomorrow is a classic NW wind day, 20-30km/hr, it should easily overcome the seabreeze, and the only cloud you are likely to get with a desert NWly is cirrus. wink

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#80320 - 12/01/2009 12:06 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
mick11 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/07/2005
Posts: 1939
Loc: carrum/Im available as a storm...
Cant see 37 for melb tomorrow either, well not for the s/e anyway. BOM have downgraded the wind strength, charts dont look windy. Id reckon 33 for me if Im lucky.

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#80321 - 12/01/2009 12:29 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
The warm is there just above the inversion already infact where there isn't any cloud SW and South of Melbourne the temps are quite warm.. eg Rhyll up to 22c already not bad for a place near Bass straight and Geelong similar, normally in this type of set up Melbourne would be around 25c by this stage and warmer in the inland suburbs but because the cool air has got trapped underneath the low cloud the temp has stayed lower through Central Melbourne but the warmer air is there ready to pounce (mainly for tomorrow)

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#80322 - 12/01/2009 12:45 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
mainly for tomorrow! Yes for about 2 hours that will bump the temp to the low 30's! smile

The cloud really is strugling to burn off allowing a bit of a seabreeze to develop. I can't see this cloud burning off fully until for at least another 2 hours. And it's struggling even to get beyond 20. How could the BOM get it so wrong predicting 26?

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#80323 - 12/01/2009 12:58 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Late Maximum Tony around 5-6pm wink early days mate to early to call to say the BOM got it so wrong mate even the seabreeze be warmish today and not the usual cool seabreeze given the temps are already 22-23c south west of Melbourne. The mixing is there already warm air aloft mate it may not get to 26c but should get to 24-25c even though I said 23c in my forecast in the forum but I think I may of underestimated abit. Cloud is clearing here and I'll give it another 40 mins and expect the whole sky to be blue.

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#80324 - 12/01/2009 13:11 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
If it gets to 25 today I will spend the entire day tomorrow naked inside waiting for 37! hahahaha

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#80325 - 12/01/2009 13:36 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Lol at the above comment by John... I could not stay of these forums for a whole month... haha!

After looking at the models properly this morning after last nights trouble, I have noticed the trough (with the southerly change) looks like it may stall just west of the state before it actually enters the region so that would mean high temperatures particularly because of the stalling. Tony I think Melbourne will get over 35 definetley now and depending on this stalling from the change may even reach 40 in some Melbourne spots... big call but I think it might happen.

40 is a real chance here now if the troughs stalls. Will be interesting for tonights update from models.

Otherwise its nice and sunny outside here with temperature so far at 27 degrees.

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#80326 - 12/01/2009 13:41 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
wow even you are above 25 in the cold SW! Just struggling at 20 here!

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#80327 - 12/01/2009 13:51 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
mick11 Offline
Member

Registered: 17/07/2005
Posts: 1939
Loc: carrum/Im available as a storm...
The line has been clearly drawn.

All those for under 35 move to the left, raise your hand and say Aye! Those for over 35, sit in the corner, youre outvoted at this stage!

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#80328 - 12/01/2009 13:57 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
The question is where we meausuring the temp from Mick? is this for the CBD? Or in our own suburbs?

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#80329 - 12/01/2009 14:19 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Power Storm Offline
Member

Registered: 08/12/2007
Posts: 3594
Loc: Simpson South, Southwest Victo...
Disregard my last above post, I have looked again and added a few variables into the models and I now have a new sceneario which is what I think will happen.

For tomorrow Tuesday, Melbourne has the possibility of getting to and over 35 degrees, again depending on the timing of the southerly change which Andrew mentiones above. I think the change will stall which is what some models are saying so temperatures for tomorrow should be locally higher over the western districts than forecast this morning and for central areas depending on wind strength. For Melbourne my bet is for 35-36 degrees tomorrow.

The southerly change IMO should not move through central parts until Wednesday midday or early afternoon so the temperatures during Wednesday will rise significantly to around 34-35 degrees. So instead of one day above 30 it will be two.

For my location, a possible 40 tomorrow and then around 34 on Wednesday, before that southerly change moves through.

Tonights model runs will give us yet a clearer picture.

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#80330 - 12/01/2009 14:28 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
If it gets to 34c your way Wednesday Jake then it will get to 37-38c here Wednesday given the change will probably go through your area 3 hours earlier than here. Anyway I'm on the 35c+ side for tomorrow cool

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#80331 - 12/01/2009 15:32 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
it.s 3.30 and still struggling in that 22/23 degree mark. You still thinking of a late max John or have you given up on that? LOL

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#80332 - 12/01/2009 15:35 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
apocalypse Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/02/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: Wagga Wagga NSW
Doesn't it depend on where you are though?
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Nathan Morris


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#80333 - 12/01/2009 15:41 Re: Melbourne & Victoria day to day weather
norfolk Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/06/2003
Posts: 2951
Loc: Caroline Springs vic.
true, I suppose I am talking about the CBD, seeing that the Viewbank/Scoresby are the only suburbs at 24. Coldstream in the far NE Yarra Valley and Sheoaks in the Brisbane Ranges NW of Geelong don't really count? LOL

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